Abstract
P10, INC. is scheduled to release its quarterly results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market, and the preview below synthesizes market estimates, last quarter’s performance, and institutional expectations to frame the company’s likely earnings trajectory.
Market Forecast
Consensus forecasts point to P10, INC. delivering total revenue of USD 78.60 million this quarter, with adjusted EPS of USD 0.24 and EBIT of USD 24.05 million; the year-over-year forecast implies revenue growth of 6.42%, an EPS decline of 7.91%, and an EBIT decline of 36.12%. Forecasts imply a continued focus on the core fee-driven model, with the revenue mix concentrated in management and advisory fees; forward commentary highlights fee resilience amid modest asset growth. The most promising segment is management and advisory fees, expected to remain the revenue anchor at approximately USD 74.32 million with stable client commitments, while year-over-year dynamics will reflect fee-rate normalization rather than volume-driven acceleration.
Last Quarter Review
P10, INC. reported last quarter revenue of USD 75.93 million, a gross profit margin of 54.52%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 2.15 million, a net profit margin of 2.83%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.24, with year-over-year adjusted EPS down 7.69%. A key operating highlight was EBIT of USD 28.75 million, which exceeded the USD 22.50 million estimate, reflecting disciplined cost control against softer top-line momentum. Main business highlights show that management and advisory fees contributed USD 74.32 million, representing the dominant share of total revenue, with minor contributions of USD 1.61 million from other lines; year-over-year growth for total revenue was 2.27%.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Fee-Based Operations
The company’s core management and advisory fee stream remains central to quarterly performance. With forecast total revenue of USD 78.60 million and EBIT of USD 24.05 million, operating leverage is expected to be constrained by higher compensation and platform expenses, implying pressure on margins despite top-line stability. The prior quarter’s 54.52% gross profit margin and 2.83% net profit margin provide an anchor, but the forecasted EPS decline of 7.91% signals a cautious stance on profitability as cost growth outpaces fee-rate expansion. The fee base is supported by existing client commitments and multi-year contracts, which typically dampen volatility; however, quarter-to-quarter changes can still reflect timing effects in fund closes and fee step-ups. Management’s historical emphasis on disciplined expense control should help manage EBIT compression, yet forecasts show EBIT down 36.12% year over year, suggesting that incremental growth may be more dependent on new fund launches and AUM inflows rather than price-based improvements.
Most Promising Revenue Anchor
Management and advisory fees are expected to be the most reliable growth engine again this quarter, modeled at USD 74.32 million based on last quarter’s run-rate and the market’s overall revenue estimate. The segment’s defensibility lies in contracted fee structures and diversified strategies across client mandates, which collectively reduce sensitivity to near-term market swings. Year-over-year consensus indicates moderate revenue growth of 6.42% this quarter for the company, an outcome consistent with expanded fee-bearing assets and ongoing fundraising across established products. The fee book’s incremental growth trajectory will depend on the cadence of new commitments and the conversion of pipeline opportunities; absent significant performance fees or one-time items, earnings quality is tied to recurring fee revenue. The forecast EPS headwind underscores that while fees may expand, unit economics are impacted by broader operating expenses and the ramp of growth initiatives.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The primary determinant for the stock in the near term is margin performance relative to expectations, particularly whether gross profit margin can maintain levels near 54.52% and whether net profit margin stabilizes despite EPS pressure. An upside surprise would likely require a combination of stronger-than-expected fundraising, accelerated AUM growth, or lower-than-anticipated operating costs, translating to EBIT resilience above the USD 24.05 million forecast. Conversely, a downside outcome could emerge if fee-rate normalization intensifies or if expense growth outstrips top-line gains, compressing net profit margin and EPS more than anticipated. The earnings release cadence and guidance on fund closes, deployment pace, and pipeline visibility will be closely watched, as these signals inform sustainability of revenue growth into subsequent quarters. Commentary on expense discipline, especially compensation and technology investments, will influence the interpretation of EPS trajectory and the scope for margin recovery.
Analyst Opinions
Institutional views tilt toward a cautiously optimistic stance ahead of the report, anchored by expectations for stable revenue and recurring fee strength, with concerns centered on margin compression and EPS softness. The prevailing bullish perspective emphasizes durability in management and advisory fees and the potential for fundraising to re-accelerate, citing last quarter’s EBIT outperformance versus estimates as evidence of operational resilience. Analysts with supportive views argue that recurring revenue at USD 74.32 million provides a solid foundation for meeting or modestly exceeding the USD 78.60 million revenue forecast, while EPS of USD 0.24 remains achievable if expense growth moderates. The constructive stance also highlights the company’s track record of cost stewardship, suggesting that any EBIT shortfall relative to last year could be mitigated by mix improvements and the timing of platform investments. Overall, the majority view maintains that P10, INC. has a clear path to sustained fee-based growth, although the magnitude of upside is likely bound by the forecast EPS decline of 7.91% and the anticipated EBIT reduction of 36.12%.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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