Title
Earning Preview: Figure Technology Solutions this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 90.82%, and institutional views are bullish
Abstract
Figure Technology Solutions will release fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 26, 2026 Post Market; investors expect a sharp year-over-year revenue acceleration alongside solid fee and loan-sale contributions, with attention on profitability quality, operating momentum into early 2026, and guidance cadence for the year ahead.
Market Forecast
Sell-side consensus currently centers around fourth-quarter revenue near 154.20 million, while management has indicated a preliminary range of 158.00 million to 162.00 million, implying about 90.82% year-over-year growth at the midpoint versus the prior-year quarter’s 83.90 million. The latest model-based inputs show adjusted EPS estimate of 0.14, with EBIT around 39.20 million; no explicit gross-margin or net-margin guidance has been issued for the quarter, though the prior quarter’s margin structure provides a useful reference point for mix and cost dynamics.
Main business performance is expected to be led by net gains on loan sales and a resilient fee mix from the platform and services, supported by robust origination activity and a steady secondary-market channel. The most promising growth area is the Figure Connect marketplace, where Q3 ecosystem and technology fees contributed 35.69 million and January marketplace volume rose 115% year over year, signaling a healthy demand backdrop that can compound into monetization over time.
Last Quarter Review
For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Figure Technology Solutions reported revenue of 156.37 million, a gross profit margin of 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 89.58 million, a net profit margin of 64.68%, and adjusted EPS of 0.34; net profit rose 199.17% quarter over quarter. The company outperformed in both EPS and EBIT versus internal estimates, with revenue also surpassing expectations, reflecting strong monetization of origination and marketplace activity. Main business highlights included 63.56 million in net gains on loan sales, 35.69 million in ecosystem and technology fees, and 21.42 million in origination fees; operationally, the consumer loan marketplace volume reached approximately 2.50 billion in Q3, up 70% year over year, illustrating the breadth of underlying transaction flow that supports both fee and loan-sale revenue.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core revenue engine: loan economics, fees, and execution
The fourth quarter’s top line is poised to track above consensus given management’s preliminary revenue range of 158.00 million to 162.00 million, which exceeds the street’s 154.20 million baseline. The expected composition remains anchored by net gains on loan sales and fee categories spanning ecosystem and technology fees, origination fees, and servicing-related income. The prior quarter’s 100.00% gross margin underscores how reported “net revenue” is recognized after certain cost offsets, and that mix—especially the balance between loan-sale execution and recurring platform revenues—can meaningfully influence the quarter’s net profitability.
The mechanics of loan-sale economics and the cadence of secondary-market distribution are pivotal. When gain-on-sale margins hold steady and capital-market demand is supportive, loan-sale contributions tend to scale with origination throughput and channel execution. The Q3 revenue surprise, coupled with strong EBIT and EPS beats, indicates operational leverage as the platform scales, but it also means the quarter can be sensitive to the timing of sales, pipeline carryover, and fair-value marks associated with held-for-sale assets. For Q4, the preliminary range suggests that deal activity and fee accruals remained healthy through December.
Fee streams from the platform and ecosystem continue to broaden the revenue base. In Q3, ecosystem and technology fees of 35.69 million and origination fees of 21.42 million complemented the loan-sale line, providing diversification across the monetization stack. Into the reported quarter, we expect that a similar blend of recurring-and-transactional fees supported the top line, although the exact mix will depend on customer activity patterns, partner volumes, and service-level throughput in late 2025. Investors will focus on any commentary that delineates recurring run-rate fees from inherently more episodic loan-sale gains, as that clarity helps frame the earnings quality and durability of growth.
Most promising growth vector: Figure Connect and adjacent on-chain marketplaces
The most significant growth vector remains the consumer credit marketplace enabled by Figure Connect and adjacent products. January operating updates showed consumer loan marketplace volume of 816.00 million, up 115% year over year, and the momentum of matched offers, borrower demand, and available lender supply in Democratized Prime posted double-digit month-over-month gains. While January falls just after the period to be reported, it offers a timely read on the run-rate entering 2026, reinforcing that the marketplace continues to attract both sides of the transaction.
From a revenue standpoint, the Q3 print reveals how this growth can monetize through multiple lines. Ecosystem and technology fees (35.69 million), origination fees (21.42 million), and servicing-related income (7.88 million in servicing fees and 9.33 million in net servicing asset income) all scale with user adoption, loan throughput, and platform stickiness. As marketplace liquidity deepens and the operating cadence tightens, higher volumes can translate into higher fee capture, while the company manages conversion economics across origination and sale channels.
This segment also benefits from product breadth, which broadens potential take rates and ancillary revenues. The interplay between marketplace activity and funding pathways—including whole-loan sales and securitizations—can support the loan-sale line (63.56 million in Q3) when buy-side appetite is strong. The near-term question for Q4 is how much of the robust demand seen late in 2025 converted into transferable revenue by quarter-end, and how the mix across loan sales, ecosystem fees, and servicing scaled relative to Q3. Early data suggest constructive conditions, consistent with management’s preliminary revenue range.
Stock-price swing factors this quarter: revenue print vs range, earnings quality, and 2026 trajectory
With the company preannouncing a revenue range that sits above the latest consensus, the first swing factor is whether the reported Q4 revenue lands toward the high end of 162.00 million, at the midpoint near 160.00 million, or closer to the low end of 158.00 million. A top-line beat against 154.20 million consensus is likely, but investors will calibrate the magnitude of the beat against how much of it is repeatable. The adjusted EPS outcome relative to the 0.14 estimate can materially influence the post-close reaction, as Q3’s strong net margin of 64.68% set a high bar for profitability leverage.
Earnings quality will be dissected across recurring fees versus more episodic loan-sale gains. A balanced mix that shows stable fee growth alongside disciplined loan-sale execution can sustain investor confidence in forward earnings visibility. Conversely, if the quarter relies disproportionately on a single driver—such as unusually large gain-on-sale contributions or fair-value marks—investors may seek more detail on the continuity of those drivers into 2026. The gross-margin baseline of 100.00% in Q3 implies that operating efficiency and overhead leverage, rather than cost of goods, will be the focal point for margin sustainability.
The trajectory into early 2026 is the third key factor. January’s marketplace volume growth of 115% year over year, positive month-over-month inflections in ecosystem activity, and continued scaling of new initiatives such as tokenized certificates ($YLDS) provide directional evidence of momentum. Investors will look for management’s color on the Q1 2026 pipeline, funding access and pricing, and how the platform intends to balance rapid growth with margin discipline. A constructive update on these dimensions would reinforce the case for continued top-line expansion and healthy unit economics.
Analyst Opinions
The analyst community skews decisively bullish into the print, with the majority of recent opinions positive; based on curated items, roughly five to one of the captured ratings are favorable, pointing to a clear pro-growth bias ahead of the quarter. Several well-followed firms have reiterated constructive stances, citing operational execution, scaling marketplace volumes, and improving monetization across fees and loan sales. Piper Sandler has maintained a Buy rating several times in recent months, most recently lifting its price target to 75.00 amid stronger-than-expected consumer loan marketplace performance and an acceleration that outpaced prior assumptions. The firm has emphasized that the company’s throughput and conversion efficiency have stepped higher, making the near-term revenue cadence more predictable than earlier in the year and supporting confidence in the upcoming revenue beat relative to consensus.
Bernstein remains constructive with a Buy rating and a 54.00 price target, emphasizing that the monetization stack—spanning technology fees, origination, servicing, and loan-sale execution—continues to broaden alongside a growing partner base. The firm highlights how Q3’s revenue upside and notable EPS surprise showcased operating leverage, and it views the preliminary Q4 revenue range of 158.00 million to 162.00 million as an indicator that the fourth quarter benefited from sustained end-demand and a stable secondary-market bid. Bernstein expects that recurring fee lines will play a progressively larger role in smoothing earnings variability as scale accumulates.
Goldman Sachs has reiterated its Buy rating in the same period, pointing to strong operating metrics, an improving liquidity environment for asset distribution, and increasing adoption across the platform. Recent operating disclosures for January—showing marketplace volume at 816.00 million, up 115% year over year—are cited by bulls as evidence that the ecosystem is expanding even beyond the quarter to be reported, reinforcing confidence in forward growth. Bulls also note that unit economics appear to be holding as throughput rises, which, combined with Q3’s 100.00% gross margin and 64.68% net margin, offers scope for durable profitability if the mix between fee and loan-sale revenue remains balanced.
In sum, the prevailing view is bullish: most institutions expect Q4 revenue to exceed consensus and sit within or slightly above management’s indicated range, with adjusted EPS landing near or better than the 0.14 estimate. The key debates center on composition—how much of the beat is attributable to recurring ecosystem fees versus loan-sale gains—and on the outlook for early 2026 given January’s strong operating read-through. Proponents argue that a confirmed revenue beat accompanied by evidence of recurring-fee momentum and prudent expense control would validate the earnings power implied by Q3’s profitability metrics, providing a supportive foundation for the stock into the next phase of scaling.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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