Significant updates have emerged regarding the Strait of Hormuz. According to Xinhua News Agency, a Greek bulk carrier with its Automatic Identification System (AIS) activated is currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. This marks the first time since March 2 that a vessel has been tracked passing through the strait into the Persian Gulf. Separately, Japanese sources reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated in a telephone interview on the 20th that, following consultations with Japan, Iran intends to permit vessels associated with Japan to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Regarding the Middle East conflict, CCTV News reported that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) issued a statement on the 21st, announcing that they are striking targets of the "Iranian regime" located in Tehran. Concurrently, retaliatory actions initiated by Iran continue. According to U.S. media reports, Iran launched two medium-range ballistic missiles targeting the Diego Garcia base, a joint U.S.-UK military facility located in the central Indian Ocean.
**Latest Developments in the Strait of Hormuz** On March 21, citing the UK's "Lloyd's List" report from the 20th, Xinhua News Agency reported that a Greek bulk carrier with its AIS activated is transiting the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. The vessel, named "Giacometti," flies the Liberian flag and is owned by a Greek bulk carrier company. AIS data indicates it is carrying "food cargo destined for Iran." The report stated that on the 20th local time, the bulk carrier bypassed Larak Island, following a route similar to the "safe corridor" designated by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The report added that at least nine other vessels have used the same route, staying close to the Iranian coast and bypassing Larak Island, which the IRGC uses to visually confirm ships passing through the strait. The report also mentioned that on March 5, a Panama-flagged vessel traveled westward through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf, but that ship sailed in隐匿 mode with its AIS turned off. When Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency republished the report, it noted that once a vessel agrees to pay a $2 million transit fee, it is safer to keep the AIS transponder on while passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Furthermore, according to CCTV News, Japanese sources reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated in a telephone interview on the 20th that, following consultations with Japan, Iran intends to permit vessels associated with Japan to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Araghchi said the two sides have begun discussions on temporarily lifting the blockade. As the conflict continues to escalate, a significant number of Japan-related vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. For Japan, which relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude oil imports, the ability to transit the Strait of Hormuz is critically important. Araghchi clarified that Iran has not blockaded the Strait of Hormuz but has imposed passage restrictions on vessels from hostile countries attacking Iran. He stated that for non-hostile countries wishing to transit, safe passage can be guaranteed after consultations with the relevant nations.
**Israeli Defense Forces Statement** According to Xinhua News Agency, the Israeli Defense Forces issued a statement on the 21st, announcing that they are striking targets of the "Iranian regime" located in Tehran. Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya television, citing Israeli sources, reported that Ahmad-Reza Radan, commander of Iran's Law Enforcement Forces, was the target of the Israeli airstrike on Tehran that day, but no further details were provided. There has been no official response from Iran yet.
Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported on the 20th, citing sources, that Iran launched two medium-range ballistic missiles targeting the Diego Garcia base, a joint U.S.-UK military facility in the central Indian Ocean. One missile malfunctioned during flight, and a U.S. warship launched an interceptor missile at the other, though it is unclear if it was successfully intercepted. The report did not specify when the incident occurred. Citing several U.S. officials, the report stated that Iran launched two medium-range ballistic missiles at the base, located approximately 4,000 kilometers from its territory, and neither missile hit the base. This action signifies that Iran's military reach extends far beyond the Middle East. Previously, Iranian media reported that Foreign Minister Araghchi had stated Iran limits its missile range to 2,000 kilometers, emphasizing that these missiles are purely for defense and deterrence.
The Chagos Archipelago is located in the southwestern Indian Ocean, about 750 kilometers northeast of Mauritius. It was ceded to the British colonial authorities in 1965. The following year, the UK leased the main island, Diego Garcia, to the United States to build an airbase. On May 22, 2025, the UK and Mauritius signed an agreement formally transferring sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius. Under the agreement, the Diego Garcia military base will be leased to the UK and the US by Mauritius. Former U.S. President Trump once suggested that the U.S. military might use the airfield on Diego Garcia against Iran. However, the UK had previously refused U.S. use of the base for strikes against Iran, citing international law. On March 1, UK Prime Minister Starmer issued a statement saying he had agreed to U.S. use of the military base for "specific and limited" defensive purposes.
**UBS Warning** Influenced by the successive escalations of tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices have continued to surge. This Friday, WTI crude futures closed up 2.27% at $98.32 per barrel; Brent crude futures prices rose sharply by 3.26%, closing at $112.19 per barrel, the highest level since mid-2022. UBS pointed out in its latest report that the combination of multiple adverse factors currently facing the U.S. economy makes the impact of this round of oil price increases more damaging to the U.S. than before. The report stated that although international oil prices remained high between 2011 and 2014, the booming U.S. shale oil industry at that time provided a strong buffer for the U.S. economy against high oil prices—losses in consumer purchasing power due to high oil prices were partially offset by the employment, capital expenditure, and industrial output growth driven by the shale oil investment boom. After 2014, U.S. investment in shale oil significantly contracted, and this buffer has now largely disappeared, making the impact of the current oil price rise on the U.S. economy more difficult to offset.
The report also emphasized that the current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. differs in several key aspects from the previous high oil price cycle. First, the current U.S. labor market is weaker than it was from 2011 to 2014. Second, U.S. households now have more limited buffer space to withstand external shocks. Third, the inflationary shock is more severe, with rapid oil price increases having a stronger pass-through effect on overall prices. These factors collectively suggest that the drag on U.S. economic growth from this round of oil price increases may far exceed market expectations. A recent survey of economists published by The Wall Street Journal showed that economists believe the probability of a U.S. recession within one year is 32%, higher than the 27% expected in January; if the average crude oil price reaches $138, the probability of a U.S. recession within one year would rise to 50%.
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