As the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference sessions approach in the early spring of 2026, this gathering is more than a routine political and economic event; it marks the commencement of China's 15th Five-Year Plan.
With the economy reaching a historic high by surpassing 140 trillion yuan in total output in 2025, China's economic strategy now faces an exceptionally complex landscape. External conditions are turbulent, while the internal transition between old and new growth drivers is entering a critical phase. Over the next five years, how China navigates the balance between stability and progress will be decisive, not only for the success of the upcoming period but also for defining the quality of Chinese modernization. This approach is neither about aggressive stimulus nor passive defense, but rather a carefully orchestrated strategy emphasizing resilience and forward-thinking.
Maintaining a stable foundation presents a test of resilience atop the 140 trillion yuan benchmark. Reflecting on the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's economy achieved four consecutive leaps in total output, culminating in the 2025 milestone. This success was rooted in a strategy of seeking progress while maintaining stability. However, the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan is not merely a continuation of past momentum. International institutions widely caution that rising trade protectionism and geopolitical fragmentation pose severe challenges to global supply chains. Against this backdrop, the GDP growth target set for the year during the two sessions will serve as a key indicator of the intensity of macro-policy measures. It requires finding a delicate balance between maintaining policy continuity and responding to new shocks to ensure the foundational economy remains solid.
The strategy of domestic demand-led growth is being infused with new meaning. If maintaining growth is the baseline, then unlocking domestic demand is the key to making breakthroughs. From 2021 to 2024, domestic demand contributed an average of 86.8% to China's economic growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for nearly 60%. This indicates that the engine of China's economy has shifted, yet structural imbalances persist. The constraint of "strong supply versus weak demand" limits the full release of potential. The Central Economic Work Conference had already emphasized adhering to a domestic demand-led strategy, and the moves in 2026 are more specific and targeted. From the implementation of new national subsidy funds to the frequent mention of new service consumption formats in local two sessions, the policy direction has shifted. It is no longer about broad-based stimulus but precise targeting, aiming to convert the consumption potential of 1.4 billion people into tangible growth momentum, making domestic demand the ballast against external turbulence.
The true strategic initiative lies in future industries. Currently, most nations are on a relatively level playing field in these frontier areas. Whoever can strategically deploy resources and achieve breakthroughs first will gain a significant advantage. The proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly highlights cutting-edge fields such as quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G. These are not just technological terms but potential new pillars for future economic growth. Consequently, many provinces are swiftly responding. Guangdong has explicitly stated its intent to vigorously develop sixth-generation mobile communication and embodied intelligence. Zhejiang is supporting the development of industrial clusters in new materials, new energy, and integrated circuits. The government work report of Jilin Province dedicates significant space to outlining its vision for future industries, including establishing the Jiyi Embodied Intelligent Robotics Company and setting up a bionic robotics manufacturing innovation center. Making the right moves in future industries is essential for seizing the strategic high ground in economic development and ensuring long-term competitiveness.
It is noteworthy that in this push for innovation in future industries, private enterprises are being assigned a more crucial role. This is not only due to their inherent innovative vitality but also because of the uncertainties inherent in future industries. In stages where technological pathways and business models are not yet clear, only sufficiently agile entities willing to experiment can pave new ways in frontier exploration. Clearly, stimulating the vitality of private enterprises has become a key component of the strategy for future industries.
Strategic moves are quiet but have long-term intentions. The initiatives at the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, while seemingly diverse, are part of a cohesive strategy. Stabilizing the 140 trillion yuan economy is the foundation, tapping into domestic demand provides depth, and seizing the high ground in future industries builds momentum for the next five years and beyond. At a deeper level, this is not merely a contest of economic data but a profound transformation of the development model. It is believed that in a world full of uncertainties, China will undoubtedly forge a distinctive, higher-quality development path through determined strategic planning.
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