Grab(NASDAQ:GRAB)is scheduled to announce its Q2 earnings results before the market opens on next Thursday, August 25.
Latest Results
It reported a Q1 loss of $0.11 per diluted share, narrower than the per-share loss of $3.18 a year earlier.
Revenue was $228 million, up from $216 million a year earlier. Loss narrowed to $435 million from $666 million.
Its gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose 32% in Q1 to $4.8 billion from a year earlier.
Stocks surged 24.11% after posting the financial results on that day.
Q2 Guidance
For Q2, Grab forecast GMV for deliveries between $2.55 billion and $2.65 billion, and for the mobility segment to be between $0.95 billion and $1 billion, betting the worst of the pandemic was over. For full-year fiscal 2022, it expects revenue of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion.
3 Most Important Things to Watch
1. Does It Come Out of Covid Lockdowns?
Data shows that Grab's growth momentum remains strong. Without looking at incentives paid to consumers and mobility/delivery partners, the activity level (measured in GMV) on Grab is growing at about 10% QoQ since 2021Q1.
It is also important to mention that Grab's growth is evenly distributed across Grab's 4 business segments. This reflects the synergy among Grab's business segments and the resulting network effect. Grab stated that engaged users spend more. In other words, the longer a user is retained on the platform, the more the user will spend over time. Hence, the network effect.
Unfortunately, we cannot deem Grab's network effect nor its leadership in the mobility, delivery, and e-wallet segment as a competitive advantage and moat yet. This is due to Grab's large expenditure on incentives for its customers and partners (riders) to maintain market share. This is also the reason why revenue has not been growing in proportion to GMV.
Therefore, we could equate Grab's leadership with the willingness to "burn cash" (provide incentives to both partners and customers).
2. Could It Afford to Taper Incentives?
Most of Grab's incentives are spent on the demand side. In 2021Q4 and 2022Q1, Grab's incentive expenditure on the demand side is 67% and 60% respectively higher than the incentive for the supply side.
Grab's incentive programs are indeed losing momentum. This is reflected by the GMV growing slower than incentive expenditure. Investors should be too concerned because this is to be expected since Grab has the majority market share and is leading by large margins.
On the other hand, when comparing the incentive-to-revenue ratio from 2021Q1 to 2022Q1, Grab's revenue is about the same while incentive expenditure increased 72%. The quarters in between did not fare well in this department as well.
When considering revenue as a function of the number of users and time spent on the platform, Grab has a supply-side shortage, its incentive program can still be considered effective.
The number of users (MTU) grew 30% since 2021Q1. Over time, revenue is expected to catch up. As the supply of drivers/riders recovers, Grab may quickly realize revenues from the newly acquired users.
3. Profitability Is in Sight
Grab's game plan outcompetes competitors for market share and then lower incentives to boost profitability. According to Euromonitor, Grab is already leading the market with good margins. Should Grab continue its growth trajectory while consumer incentive shows signs of normalization in 2022Q2, profitability is in sight.
Another positive takeaway is Grab's healthy liquidity. As of 2022Q1, Grab has $8.2bn of cash while cash flow from operating activities is negative $0.465bn. This provides Grab with about 17 quarters or 4 years' worth of runway. Operating cash flow is expected to improve as Grab captures more opportunities in the mobility segment.
Analyst Opinions
J.P. Morgan offered a“Buy” rating and a $3 price target to it. The company thought Grab's superior regional super-app platform is best geared to rising online consumption in Asia, the profitable mobility segment is likely to shift into high gear as economies re-open, making mobility a high-frequency, high cash-flow engine to Grab's flywheel.
Bernstein cut its price target to $3.04 from $3.52 and upgraded to an “Outperform” rating from a “Market Perform” rating, it expects a peaking of incentives in H1 and gradual improvements post that as driver supply slowly improves. A relatively benign competitive environment as competitors focus on profitability is additional support.
Maybank Research slashed its price target from $4.25 to $2.29 and downgraded it from “buy” to “sell”. The company thought recession risks are mounting for Grab as capital market expectations appear to have changed on investor projections of further rate hikes by the Fed. It called GrabMaps a “desperate wringing for cash flows where it can”, and likened the move similar to an act of “pawning the family jewels”.
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