Gold Market Analysis: On March 13, gold continued its weak and fluctuating trend, closing with consecutive negative daily candles, breaking the previous alternating pattern of gains and losses. Bullish momentum has persistently weakened, with bears gradually taking control of the short-term trend. Considering both fundamental and technical signals, gold is likely to maintain a weak, oscillating downward trend during the day, with limited upward rebound potential. Key support levels should be closely monitored for potential breakdowns.
The core bearish factor remains the continued cooling of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Resilient U.S. economic data and persistent inflation have led CME interest rate futures to indicate near-zero probability of a rate cut in March, with June rate cut expectations significantly revised downward. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index have stabilized and rebounded, increasing the holding cost for non-yielding gold and causing continued capital outflow from the precious metals market. Meanwhile, Middle East geopolitical tensions have not escalated further, significantly reducing safe-haven buying and eroding previous risk premiums. Although global central bank gold purchases provide medium-to-long-term support, they are unlikely to reverse the short-term weakness. With no major economic data releases during the day, market movements will primarily reflect technical trading.
On the daily chart, gold has recorded two consecutive negative closes, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forming a bearish alignment that firmly caps price advances. The MACD shows expanding green bars, and the RSI has fallen to neutral-low levels, indicating that downward momentum has not fully dissipated. In the shorter 4-hour timeframe, gold has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, but the bands have not yet opened downward, suggesting further consolidation before additional declines. Key resistance is concentrated in the $5,130-$5,150 range, a significant barrier for bulls during the day. Core support lies at $5,090-$5,070; a break below this range could lead to a test of the critical $5,050 level. Overall, the market exhibits characteristics of "weak rebounds and orderly declines," clearly indicating a bearish bias.
Intraday Trading Suggestions (For Reference Only): 1. Consider staged short positions in the $5,125-$5,138 range, with a stop-loss above $5,155, targeting $5,095-$5,075. 2. If prices break below $5,070 during the day, light short positions could be considered, targeting $5,050, while avoiding premature bottom-fishing.
Silver Market Trends: Silver weakened in tandem with gold yesterday, closing with consecutive medium negative daily candles. Bullish recovery attempts have been feeble, with bears dominating intraday movements, although prices remain within a broader consolidation range. Silver continues to follow gold's lead, and after encountering resistance during rebounds, further declines are possible. On the daily chart, silver has closed negatively for two consecutive sessions, breaking below the support of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. These averages have turned downward, forming bearish pressure, while the MACD shows expanding green bars, indicating gradually intensifying downward momentum. In the 4-hour timeframe, silver is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, with clear resistance at the middle band. Key upper resistance lies in the $86.5-$87.5 range, while core support is seen at $83.0-$83.5. A break below this support zone could lead to a test of the $82.0 level.
Intraday Trading Suggestions (For Reference Only): 1. Consider staged short positions in the $85.0-$86.5 range, with a stop-loss above $87.0, targeting $83.5-$83.0. 2. If prices stabilize near $83.0 during pullbacks, light long positions could be considered, with a stop-loss below $82.0, targeting $84.5-$85.0.
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