According to comprehensive reports, a new adjustment window for domestic refined oil retail price caps will open at 24:00 on July 31. Multiple institutions predict a high probability of an increase. Calculations by one agency as of the ninth working day on July 30 show the average price of reference crude oil varieties at $88.24 per barrel, with a change rate of 13.32%. This corresponds to an upward adjustment of 680 yuan per ton for domestic gasoline and diesel retail price caps. Data from another monitoring source points to the same magnitude.
Another analysis predicts that, based on the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the corresponding increase for refined oil on August 1 will be around 0.6 yuan per liter, marking the tenth increase this year. If this price hike is implemented, for a 70-liter fuel tank, private car owners will pay about 40 yuan more to fill up.
During this pricing cycle, international oil prices have fluctuated and trended higher. An analyst noted that as of July 29, the average reference crude oil price within the cycle was $86.65 per barrel, up 14.36% from the previous cycle. They estimate that when the adjustment window opens, the theoretical increase for refined oil will be around 0.6 yuan per liter. The upward adjustment is considered a certainty, but the final adjustment magnitude should be subject to official announcement.
Additionally, another analysis firm estimates that at 24:00 on July 31, the increase for 92# gasoline will be around 0.53 yuan per liter, and for 0# diesel, around 0.58 yuan per liter. Filling a 50-liter tank of 92# gasoline is expected to increase costs by about 27 yuan. For consumers, during the next price adjustment cycle, fuel costs for personal travel and logistics transportation will increase.
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