According to Sigmaintell, while the laptop market faced significant challenges in the first half of 2025 due to tariff policies, risks associated with overseas production capacities of leading brands are expected to ease in the second half. The demand for upgrades driven by technological advancements has become the core force in this new cycle, particularly in the commercial segment where aging performance and system upgrades are prompting a replacement wave, leading to a forecasted rebound in shipment volumes. Beginning in 2026, the market will enter a growth phase propelled by iterations and upgrades in CPU and GPU technologies. Intel's 18A process will enter mass production, and NPU computing power will break through, alongside advancements in NVIDIA's next-generation GPU technology, which will invigorate the market. There will also be accelerated development of OLED and touch laptops during 2025-2026, with an expected increase in OLED laptop shipments and greater brand penetration, while shipments of touch notebook modules will be considerable, spurred by leading brands promoting In-cell touch NB panel growth.
Market Review and Forecast for 2025: Easing Tariffs and Technological Drivers Lead to a New Replacement Cycle in the Laptop Market In the first half of 2025, U.S. tariff policies had a notable negative impact on the overall performance of the laptop market. However, according to Sigmaintell’s data, leading brands are anticipated to meet North American market demands with their overseas production capacities in Southeast Asia by the second half of 2025. Although tariff policies still carry considerable uncertainty in the medium to long term, the related risks have shown signs of easing. In this context, technology-driven upgrade demands are projected to be the core driving force of a new round of industrial cycles. The commercial laptop market is set to ignite a new wave of replacements in 2025. Looking back at 2020-2021, the global pandemic made remote working mainstream, prompting many companies to bulk purchase laptops to meet employee needs. After 3-5 years of usage, these devices often show signs of performance degradation, making them inadequate for complex tasks in digital work environments. The rise of technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data analytics has also increased the demand for advanced software and hardware capabilities in laptops. To effectively enhance work efficiency and strengthen overall corporate competitiveness, companies urgently need to accelerate the pace of equipment updates.
Additionally, the policy to fully cease support for Windows 10 for commercial customers in Q4 2025 will act as a catalyst for the replacement of commercial laptops, especially given the AI features of Windows 11 and its Trusted Platform Module (TPM) requirements for hardware. These three factors (the laptop replacement cycle, the cessation of Windows 10 support, and the performance upgrades from Windows 11) collectively accelerate the trend towards corporate device updates. According to Sigmaintell, global laptop shipments are expected to be about 184 million units in 2024, with a rebound to approximately 194 million units anticipated for 2025. Between 2025 and 2027, the compound annual growth rate is expected to remain within the 5.6% to 2.8% range.
Technical Insights for 2026: CPU and GPU Innovations Empower Dual Drive Forces in the Laptop Market Starting in 2026, the laptop market will enter a growth phase, driven primarily by ongoing iterations and upgrades in CPU and GPU technologies. On the CPU front, heterogeneous computing architecture serves as the foundational core for AI PCs. By integrating NPU with suitable processors, optimal application performance, efficiency, and battery life can be achieved, fully empowering the next generation of enhanced generative AI experiences. In this architecture, the CPU mainly handles lightweight, single-instance inference AI tasks, while the NPU, as a low-power AI engine, addresses computational needs for low-power AI applications. Intel's 18A process is a key node in its return to leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, having entered early production in Q3 2025 and is planned for mass production at Fab 52 in Arizona by early 2026. Sigmaintell forecasts a further upgrade in CPU computing power in 2026, with NPU capabilities expected to surpass 50 TOPS. This synergy between CPU and NPU technologies will significantly enhance user experience and lay a solid foundation for sustained growth in the laptop market from 2026 to 2027.
In the GPU sector, for instance, NVIDIA, a leading player in the industry, has achieved notable breakthroughs in ray tracing technology and parallel computing capabilities with its next-generation products. This technological advancement not only greatly enhances the realism and smoothness of gaming experiences for players, providing a more immersive visual experience but also effectively accelerates the processing speed of AI applications, meeting the performance demands of content creators in high-load tasks such as video rendering and image processing. With the continuous growth in consumer demand for high-performance computing devices, gamers and content creators have increasingly become the main driving forces behind device upgrades. Sigmaintell anticipates the release of NVIDIA's RTX 60 series graphics cards between the second half of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, which will establish a technological foundation for the development of gaming laptops and high-performance ultrabooks in 2027 and further invigorate the consumer market.
Innovations in Laptop Display Technology: Accelerated Growth of OLED and Touch Laptops from 2025 to 2028 In the context of the accelerating development of AI laptops (AI PCs), the intrinsic advantages of AI in image and video creation lead consumers to prefer laptops equipped with OLED screens. Moreover, user-friendly touch functionality enhances human-computer interaction experiences, improving creativity and work efficiency. Significant growth is anticipated in the laptop sector as well.
Starting with OLED, from 2025 to 2027, OLED laptops are expected to experience rapid growth, with shipments projected to reach 11.5 million units in 2025 and approximately 17.4 million units by 2026. Lenovo is actively leading the way in adopting OLED technology as a primary direction for laptop screen upgrades. By 2026, with dual supply from Samsung Display (SDC) and EDO, along with BOE's 8.6-generation OLED laptop panels entering mass production, growth is expected for OLED in both consumer and commercial product lines. Lenovo's demand for OLED laptops is expected to nearly double, giving it a market share of around 40% among leading brands. HP will actively incorporate ROLED starting in 2026, with OLED penetration rates anticipated to reach 5%. Apple is set to switch its MacBook Pro and Air product lines to OLED technology in 2026 and 2029 respectively, becoming a significant driver of growth in the OLED laptop market.
Looking at the development trend of touch technology, Sigmaintell data project that panel manufacturers' shipments of touch laptop modules are expected to reach approximately 25.4 million units in 2025, accounting for 11% of the laptop panel market's shipments. In terms of subtypes of touch laptop modules, On-cell types dominate with the highest market share at about 62%, followed by OGS types with an external touch, accounting for about 25%, while In-cell types hold a relatively small market share. Sigmaintell projects total shipments of laptop touch panels to leap to 28.6 million units in 2026, with this figure likely reaching new heights by 2027. Leading brands are diligently planning to further expand the application of touch technology in both commercial and consumer product lines, with this technology innovation focusing primarily on In-cell solutions. By 2026, shipments of In-cell touch laptop panels are expected to surge significantly, with their market share potentially rising to about 18%.
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