Years later, as Xiaomi Group achieves quarterly revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan, Dong Mingzhu might recall the high-profile "10 billion bet" she made with Lei Jun.
On December 12, 2013, during the CCTV 14th China Economic Annual Person Awards Ceremony, Lei Jun proposed that Xiaomi's revenue would surpass Gree's within five years. Dong Mingzhu raised the stakes to 10 billion yuan. By 2018, Gree's total revenue reached 200.24 billion yuan, surpassing Xiaomi's 174.9 billion yuan, securing Dong's victory.
However, in the sixth year of the bet (2019), Xiaomi Group's revenue hit 205.8 billion yuan, while Gree stagnated at 200.5 billion yuan. Since then, Xiaomi has driven rapid growth through diversified expansions in smartphones, smart home appliances, and electric vehicles, while Gree remained overly reliant on its core air conditioning business. By 2024, Xiaomi's revenue surged to 365.9 billion yuan—nearly double Gree's 190 billion yuan.
The gap continues to widen. Latest financial reports show that in the first three quarters of 2025, Gree's total revenue fell 6.62% year-on-year to 137.654 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping 2.27% to 21.461 billion yuan. In Q3 alone, revenue declined 15.09% to 39.855 billion yuan, while net profit slid 9.92% to 7.049 billion yuan.
In contrast, Xiaomi Group reported a 32.5% revenue growth to 340.37 billion yuan in the same period, with adjusted net profit soaring 73.5% to 32.817 billion yuan. Q3 revenue rose 22.3% to 113.1 billion yuan, marking four consecutive quarters above 100 billion yuan.
By Q3 2025, Xiaomi's revenue was nearly triple Gree's, with the trend accelerating. By Q4, Xiaomi's revenue could exceed Gree's by over threefold. While Gree won the short-term bet, Xiaomi emerged as the long-term victor. Moreover, Gree now trails behind traditional rivals Midea and Haier.
For nearly three decades, China's home appliance industry has been dominated by Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric, each excelling in technology, market strategy, and globalization. Haier leads in global expansion and premium brand Casarte, while Midea expanded through acquisitions. Gree, however, remains heavily dependent on air conditioning, with slower diversification.
In Q3 2025, Midea's revenue grew 13.85% to 364.716 billion yuan, with net profit up 19.51% to 37.883 billion yuan—a decade-high growth rate. Haier Smart Home also posted strong results, with revenue rising 10% to 234.05 billion yuan and net profit climbing 14.7% to 17.37 billion yuan.
Benefiting from government subsidies, Midea and Haier achieved double-digit growth, while Gree saw declines in both revenue and profit. In Q3, Midea's revenue was nearly triple Gree's, and Haier's was close to double.
Gree's stagnation stems from its struggling air conditioning business. Since 2012, Gree has ventured into smart equipment, small appliances, smartphones, and new energy under Dong Mingzhu's leadership, yet diversification efforts have faltered. In H1 2024, air conditioning still contributed 77.74% of revenue, while other segments like home appliances (2.4%), industrial products (6.18%), green energy (1.98%), and smart equipment (0.26%) remained marginal.
From 2024, Gree merged its "air conditioning" and "home appliances" segments into "consumer appliances," which still accounted for 78.38% of H1 2025 revenue but declined 5% year-on-year.
Industry data shows H1 2025 sales growth for home air conditioners (8.3%), refrigerators (3.7%), and washing machines (8.8%), but central air conditioning sales dropped 5.5%, pressured by weak real estate demand. Despite growth, fierce price wars—led by Xiaomi and Aux—have squeezed margins, with low-end models dominating online sales.
While Midea and Haier countered with sub-brands like Huawei's competitively priced offerings, Gree prioritized profitability over market share. Dong Mingzhu defended this strategy, emphasizing quality over low-cost competition.
However, Gree's higher gross margins (33.20% for consumer appliances) came at the cost of market share. Xiaomi's air conditioner market share surged to 15.32% in H1 2025, while Gree's slipped to 23.62%. By July, Xiaomi reportedly overtook Gree in online sales (16.71% vs. 15.22%), sparking public disputes.
Xiaomi's aggressive expansion—including a new smart appliance factory with 7 million unit annual capacity—poses further challenges for Gree. Meanwhile, the end of government subsidies and a sluggish property market add to industry headwinds.
Gree's industrial products and green energy segments grew 17.1% and 20.9% respectively in H1 2025, but their combined 10.17% revenue share is insufficient to offset air conditioning declines.
Beyond diversification struggles, Gree faces leadership succession concerns. In April, Dong Mingzhu secured her fifth term as chairman, further intertwining her personal brand with Gree's identity. Her polarizing public image risks alienating younger consumers, potentially hindering Gree's transformation.
As Midea's chairman Fang Hongbo cautioned, "Aging leaders risk losing touch—I won’t let that happen." For Gree and Dong Mingzhu, the time for reflection is now.
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