On July 6th, the short-term trend of gold continues to shift back and forth in real-time with core market data and macro rhythms. Following the significant release of the June non-farm payroll data, the global financial market landscape has undergone a phase of reshaping. The previously persistently strong US dollar has consequently begun to weaken, which in turn has allowed gold and silver, suppressed for an extended period, to break free from their downward constraints and initiate a robust rebound. This cyclical pattern of "June adjustment, July counterattack" aligns perfectly with our earlier forecasts. The monthly bullish trend for gold may now formally commence, with the window for phased long positions beginning to open widely.
However, this week marks the second week of July, and the current gold market movement may no longer be driven purely by technical factors. Two major policy meeting minutes, coupled with geopolitical events, are anticipated to dominate the short-term market volatility. These will be crucial in determining the subsequent pace of gold's rise and its ability to break through key overhead resistance levels. Therefore, our short-term trading strategy requires close monitoring of these developments.
Firstly, the minutes from the June monetary policy meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will be released consecutively this Thursday. Since the non-farm data has already significantly cooled market expectations for further rate hikes, these minutes are expected to provide further insight into the monetary policy leanings of both central banks. The Fed minutes will directly reflect officials' latest stance on employment and inflation, though they are likely to further downplay signals of tightening, which would continue to pressure the US dollar and benefit gold. The ECB minutes will influence non-US currency movements, thereby indirectly affecting fluctuations in the US Dollar Index. Overall, the market is expected to remain cautiously range-bound ahead of the release of these minutes on Thursday, with the bullish trend likely to resume more decisively only after their full implications are absorbed.
Amidst the dual fundamental tailwinds currently supporting the market, the technical bullish structure for gold has fully materialized. Multiple timeframes, excluding the longer weekly and monthly cycles, are showing synchronized upward momentum, indicating a relatively clear short-term unilateral uptrend.
From a daily chart technical perspective, gold prices have consecutively closed higher, firmly establishing themselves above the Bollinger Band midline. The market has decisively broken out of the previous downtrend channel, forming a strong bullish breakout pattern. The upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, corresponding to the 4350 level, serves as the primary near-term resistance target for the bulls this week. A subsequent breakthrough above this level would further expand the upside potential.
Analyzing the 4-hour short-term cycle, the Bollinger Bands are currently widening with an upward bias. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are fully aligned in a bullish configuration, presenting a classic unilateral uptrend structure. The market's center of gravity is consistently shifting higher. As long as this bullish moving average structure remains intact without a breakdown, the current uptrend is unlikely to end abruptly. Subsequent price action is expected to advance steadily in a step-like pattern.
Current support and resistance levels for subsequent operations are relatively clear and well-defined. For the beginning of this week, our primary short-term defensive support can be initially set around the 4150 level, which also acts as the first key line separating bullish and bearish momentum. If the market retraces but holds above this level, a pullback to this zone would present another opportunity to consider long positions. On the upside, we will sequentially watch the resistance levels at 4250 and 4350. The ultimate bullish target for the month could even extend to the 4500 level.
It is important to note that a unilateral uptrend does not imply a straight-line rally. Upon reaching key resistance levels such as those above 4350, gold prices are highly likely to experience pullbacks, consolidation, and accumulation phases. Therefore, in our subsequent operations, we must strictly avoid blindly chasing rallies. The primary strategy should be to patiently wait for appropriate low points during pullbacks before considering new long positions.
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