Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. is rapidly advancing pricing, channel, and direct sales reforms, signaling a clearer shift towards a market-oriented pricing system. Goldman Sachs views this as an indicator of the baijiu industry bottoming out, suggesting Moutai's pricing actions will accelerate the normalization of channel prices and profits, alongside improving channel discipline and inventory reduction processes. On January 1st, Moutai formally announced adjustments to the suggested retail prices for key products in its non-standard series, simultaneously modifying ex-factory prices based on channel research. The i Moutai platform officially launched the Feitian Moutai series on the same day, which includes the 53-degree 500ml (vintages 2019-2026), 100ml/1000ml Feitian, and several other series products, with a suggested retail price of 1,499 yuan per bottle. According to information from Zhui Feng Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs analyst Leaf Liu's team stated in a report released on January 14th that retail demand for premium baijiu remains weak year-on-year. The firm's weekly tracking data and channel research indicate that, despite a sequential improvement driven by the 2026 New Year holiday compared to November-December 2025, year-on-year demand for high-end baijiu is still soft. This aligns with the general commentary from companies at recent distributor conferences, which noted that current terminal sales velocity is only about 50%-70% of previous levels, suggesting the industry still requires time to reach a bottom. Goldman Sachs anticipates a potential bottoming opportunity for the baijiu sector in the second half of 2026, primarily fueled by a recovery in high-end banquet and business demand from an extremely low base in June 2025. However, the firm concurrently expects baijiu companies to face intensified pressure on their financial performance during the first half of 2026, due to accelerated inventory destocking and potential price adjustments. The i Moutai platform continues to expand its initiatives. The platform has officially launched the Feitian Moutai series along with multiple other product lines, including premium, zodiac, vintage, cultural series, and low-alcohol varieties. i Moutai is persistently broadening its demand coverage, having attracted 2.7 million new users in the nine days following the Feitian series launch on January 1st, with transacting users reaching 400,000 and 100,000 over nine-day and three-day periods, respectively. Based on Goldman Sachs estimates, considering only Feitian Moutai sales (with an initial limit of 12 bottles or 2 cases per person for the first three days, and 6 bottles or 1 case before the Spring Festival), i Moutai could have contributed approximately 4.5 billion yuan in total sales value in the first 9 days of 2026. This equates to roughly 35% of i Moutai's revenue for the first nine months of 2025 (12.7 billion yuan) and about 3.4% of Moutai's total revenue for the first nine months of 2025 (131 billion yuan). According to information from "Daily Baijiu Price," Moutai has also adjusted the contract prices for several mid-to-high-end products with distributors, including Premium Moutai, Moutai 15 Years (scheduled for launch on i Moutai on January 13th), 43-degree Moutai, and Moutai 1935. Wholesale prices are showing divergent trends. Over the past two weeks, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has declined, while prices for Wuliangye普五 and Luzhou Laojiao国窖1573 have remained relatively stable. The wholesale price for a case of Feitian Moutai dropped by 40 yuan per bottle, falling from 1,575 yuan to 1,535 yuan; the wholesale price for loose bottles of Feitian decreased by 30 yuan, from 1,560 yuan to 1,530 yuan. For other Moutai products, the wholesale prices for Zodiac Moutai/Color Glaze珍品 increased by 45 yuan/150 yuan per bottle respectively, whereas prices for Premium Moutai/Moutai 15 Years/1-liter Feitian Moutai decreased by 20 yuan/120 yuan/70 yuan per bottle respectively. The wholesale price for Wuliangye普五 held steady at 850 yuan/810 yuan per bottle (according to "Daily Baijiu Price"/Bairong wholesale market data), and the wholesale price for Luzhou Laojiao国窖1573 remained at 840 yuan per bottle. It is important to note that the ex-factory prices for Premium Moutai and Moutai 15 Years have already been reduced from their previous levels of 2,699 yuan/5,399 yuan per bottle to 1,859 yuan/3,409 yuan per bottle. A full demand recovery still requires time. Premium baijiu companies plan to increase investment in low-alcohol products/lower-tier markets to achieve incremental growth, while continuing to execute disciplined shipping strategies and enhancing channel support. Both Luzhou Laojiao and Zhenjiu Lidugroup stated at recent distributor conferences that current terminal sales velocity is approximately 50%-70% of previous levels. Goldman Sachs projects that the baijiu industry will encounter a bottoming opportunity in the second half of 2026, mainly driven by the recovery of high-end banquet and business demand from the exceptionally low base seen in June 2025. Simultaneously, however, baijiu companies are expected to face greater pressure on their financial performance during the first half of 2026, largely stemming from accelerated inventory destocking and potential price adjustments. The process of industry-wide price clearing is set to continue. Moutai's pricing reform initiatives, as the industry leader, will have a demonstrative effect on the entire baijiu sector, promoting the normalization of channel price systems and profit levels, while also accelerating the industry's inventory reduction process. Although this adjustment period may exert pressure on corporate financial performance in the short term, it is ultimately conducive to the healthy development of the industry in the long run.
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