On December 29th, the Shanghai Composite Index surged for a ninth consecutive day, while the brokerage sector fluctuated below the surface. The leading 40-billion-yuan Brokerage ETF (512000) saw its on-market price drop by 0.85%, with half-day turnover exceeding 700 million yuan. Most individual stocks declined, with only Caitong Securities, Changcheng Securities, and Huaan Securities trading in positive territory.
Reviewing the performance in December, the brokerage sector failed to sustain a rebound alongside major equity indices, with volatility remaining subdued for now and the overall trend appearing relatively weak. This can be attributed to both industry-specific fundamentals and broader market factors.
Looking ahead, as 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the overall operation of the capital market is expected to maintain relative strength. The securities industry is anticipated to remain within its current upward cycle, leaving limited room for a significant further decline in the average valuation of brokerage stocks. The year-on-year pressure on the operating performance of listed brokerages in the first quarter of 2026 is relatively light, suggesting the sector may consolidate at current low levels, gathering momentum for new investment opportunities.
Strategically, Zhongyuan Securities suggests that if the brokerage sector's valuation falls again to around 1.3 times price-to-book (P/B), it could present another favorable opportunity for positioning. They advise maintaining active attention to policy developments, market conditions, and the brokerage sector itself.
Founder Securities indicates that the current slow-bull market is still in its early stages. While the brokerage sector has not shown significant outperformance since 2025, they remain optimistic about continued profit improvement for brokers in 2026. The sector is still considered "laggard" with Return on Equity (ROE) in an upward trajectory, suggesting a sector rally, though delayed, is inevitable.
When a market rally occurs, invest in brokerages! Brokerage ETF (512000) and its feeder funds (Class A 006098; Class C 007531) passively track the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index, providing exposure to 49 listed brokerage stocks in a single transaction. It is an efficient tool for concentrating investments in leading brokers while also including mid and small-sized firms. The Brokerage ETF (512000) currently has a fund size exceeding 40 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover of over 1 billion yuan year-to-date, ranking it among the largest and most liquid brokerage sector ETFs in the A-share market.
Note: Recent market volatility may be significant. Short-term gains or losses are not indicative of future performance. Investors must make rational investment decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, paying close attention to position sizing and risk management.
Data sourced from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, and public information.
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