On Friday, May 22, spot gold edged slightly lower in early Asian trading, currently hovering around $4520 per ounce. On Thursday, May 21, after a sharp intraday drop of 1%, spot gold showed resilience and stabilized, ultimately closing nearly flat at $4543 per ounce. The daily candlestick formed a "Morning Star" pattern with an extremely long lower shadow, indicating potential bullish reversal. Fundamentally, the market anticipates that OPEC+ will agree to increase oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day at its June meeting. Al Arabiya satellite TV refuted reports from Iranian media citing a "U.S.-Iran agreement," calling the Iranian news inaccurate. Negotiations between Iran and Pakistan, as well as between Pakistan and the U.S., are ongoing, with Pakistan making every effort to bring all parties back to the table to reduce differences, reach an agreement, and end the conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated on the 21st that some progress has been made in U.S.-Iran talks, but he could not guarantee a deal would be reached. A White House statement indicated that the swearing-in ceremony for the new Federal Reserve Chair, Wash, is scheduled for 11:00 AM on May 22 (23:00 Beijing Time). Despite Wash's two decades of systematically articulating his views on the Fed's responsibilities and its missteps through speeches, podcasts, columns, and media interviews, markets and Washington still find it difficult to accurately predict his future policy path as he prepares to formally assume the role. Wash has long advocated for rebuilding central bank credibility to ultimately achieve a lower interest rate environment. He believes new methods for measuring and forecasting inflation are needed while reducing the Fed's direct market interventions to make central bank operations more restrained. In simple terms, this suggests a stance favoring rate cuts, disinflation, and a counter-market approach, potentially strengthening the outlook for precious metals like gold and silver. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note retreated to around 4.63%. Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16 came in at 209,000, against an expectation of 210,000, with the previous week's figure revised from 211,000 to 212,000. Today's key fundamental data to watch includes the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading for May, the one-year inflation expectations final reading for May, and the Conference Board Leading Indicators month-over-month rate for April, all due at 22:00. From a technical perspective, analyzing the daily chart structure and yesterday's price action, gold's primary structure shows a negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index, with overall conditions appearing weak. However, there is also some technical support below. Breaking the current stalemate will likely require impetus from the Dollar Index's movement or fundamental news. Intraday, gold is expected to continue oscillating around the 5-day moving average near $4530. A move above could lead to a test of resistance near the previous high and the 10- and 20-day moving averages in the $4590-$4610 zone. A move down would see attention shift back to support near the previous low around $4460. Looking at the one-hour chart, gold faced pressure and retreated yesterday before rebounding, with the overall price action developing into a sideways consolidation pattern. This suggests the short-term trend may be approaching a directional decision, highlighting the market's increased focus on fundamentals and external influences. Intraday, gold is expected to continue trading within the hourly chart range of $4560-$4490. The narrowing of this consolidation range indicates a potential need for a short-term directional breakout. Given that this is occurring on a Friday, it heightens the possibility of unexpected news disrupting the market today. Trading recommendations for today suggest operating within the $4560-$4490 range for short-term, low-buy-high-sell strategies, with strict stop-losses. It is crucial to guard against potential abnormal volatility risks from sudden news. Specific evening operations should be adjusted based on real-time market conditions.
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