Gold prices opened higher on Monday, August 3, before retreating as Trump halted new strikes on Iran, citing a "deal is close," though Iran directly denied contact with the US. This led to a decline, though the market didn't ignore the potential for diplomatic signals. Re-pricing of possible US-Iran contact eventually triggered a rebound that closed near flat compared to Friday's close, keeping prices within the recent consolidation range. While a bottoming pattern suggests a potential rise, the bearish cross above the 100-day moving average signals further downside risks. Bullish traders should watch for a break above the 60-week moving average resistance to follow the trend, or wait for a retest of the 100-week moving average support for a safer entry.
On the specifics, gold opened at $4080.39 per ounce in Asian trading, hitting a session high of $4082.68 before encountering resistance. It trended lower throughout the day, touching a low of $4018.79 in early US trading before rebounding to close at $4055.20. The daily range was $63.89, with a gain of $3.97 or 0.098% from the previous Friday's close of $4051.23.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, August 4, gold opened weaker, pressured by the middle Bollinger Band and short-term moving averages, while the US dollar's rebound from Monday's low hints at further strength, which could cap gold's upside. Short-term, gold faces continued consolidation risks. Today's data includes the US June trade balance, June JOLTS job openings, and June factory orders, all expected to be bearish for gold, suggesting a sell-on-rallies approach.
On the fundamentals, gold remains range-bound amid Middle East war uncertainty, rising inflation concerns, and anticipation of this week's US employment data to gauge Fed policy direction. The US July ADP employment change, July unemployment rate, and July nonfarm payrolls are expected to be bullish for gold, so the week's trend is likely to stay sideways with a bullish bias in the short term.
Technically, on the weekly chart, gold's bounce last week kept it within the recent consolidation range, forming a potential bottom but facing resistance from the 60-week and 5-10 week moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are tilting lower, suggesting pressure and a risk of dipping back to the 100-week moving average near $3700. At that level, a bold buy entry is suggested; conversely, if it closes above the 60-week moving average, a strong bullish trend may follow. Until then, treat it as a consolidation.
On the daily chart, gold is consolidating above a rising trend line, hinting at a bullish reversal, but the 100-day moving average has crossed bearishly below the 200-day moving average, indicating the rebound is only temporary. If it fails to hold above $4500, a new low near $3700 is possible. For intraday trading, key levels: gold support at $4040 and $4000, resistance at $4070 and $4100; silver support at $57.60 and $57.00, resistance at $58.70 and $59.40.
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