Natural Rubber On Wednesday, domestic full latex was priced at 15,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thailand 20# mixed rubber was at 15,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. On the raw material side: Yesterday, Thai rubber latex closed at 58.0 THB/kg, up 0.5 THB/kg from the previous day, while Thai cup lump price closed at 52.8 THB/kg, up 0.3 THB/kg from the previous day; production has halted in Yunnan; production has halted in Hainan. As of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory stood at 1.256 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous period, up 1.9%. The total social inventory for dark rubber in China was 835,000 tons, up 2.5%. Among these, Qingdao spot inventory increased by 3.6%; Yunnan increased by 1%; Vietnam 10# increased by 6%; NR inventory summary decreased by 3%. The total social inventory for light-colored rubber in China was 421,000 tons, up 0.8% from the previous period. Among these, old full latex decreased by 1.7%, 3L increased by 10%, and the RU inventory summary increased by 2.8%. Viewpoint: With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is entering a low production season, signifying a shift in the pricing framework for outright prices from dynamic pricing based on supply-demand balance to static pricing based on existing inventory. Against the backdrop of broadly strengthening expectations in the commodity market recently, it is expected that RU, NR, and Sicom will continue to trade at high levels with volatility in the short term. Looking ahead, although global demand for rubber products like tires is expected to see moderate growth in 2026, this demand growth takes time, and with global trade barriers not yet fully eliminated, the magnitude of demand growth may still be constrained. Therefore, it is anticipated that the peak of this rebound before the 2026 Lunar New Year will likely not exceed the level seen at the end of July 2025.
PX: Supply and demand dynamics are stable on both sides. The operating rate of China's PX industry increased by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month to 90.9%, while the Asian industry operating rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 81.2%. High margins continue to incentivize plants to purchase MX for PX production, and it is expected that overall PX supply will remain at relatively high levels in January. On the demand side, downstream PTA units such as Dushan Energy and Zhongtai Petrochemical have restarted successively, which will drive PX demand. The pace of PX inventory accumulation in January is expected to narrow. Although U.S. PPI and Core PPI both rose 3% year-on-year in November, exceeding market expectations, the U.S. dollar index ultimately closed lower due to ongoing political uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence. OPEC, in its latest monthly report, projected for the first time that global oil demand in 2027 will increase by 1.34 million barrels per day compared to 2026. This long-term outlook did not dominate short-term market movements. Former U.S. President Trump's "wait-and-see" comments on the Iran situation triggered market volatility, leading to wide price swings and a final doji star close for oil prices. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East, including the deployment of a U.S. carrier strike group and evacuations by multiple countries, are expected to continue supporting oil prices in the short term due to geopolitical risks. Overall, the polyester sector still has underlying support, but terminal demand is showing seasonal weakness, and the industry chain is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter. In the short term, cost-side support remains, and the PX March futures price is expected to primarily follow cost trends, trading with a stronger bias amid volatility. Consider buying on dips, reducing long positions near previous resistance levels, with medium-term support in the 7000-7150 range.
PTA: Supply and demand dynamics are stable on both sides. The PTA industry operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month to 78.2%, remaining at a relatively low level for the same period in previous years. On the demand side, the atmosphere for new orders is generally weak, and the operating rates of terminal factories in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region continue to decline. The polyester industry operating rate held steady at 90.8% month-on-month. Based on announced maintenance schedules, industry operating rates are expected to accelerate their decline starting from the latter part of this month. As restarted units come online and the impact of seasonal weakness in terminal demand gradually transmits upstream, PTA inventory is expected to reach an accumulation inflection point in January. Overall, the fundamental situation in the TA-polyester segment currently has some support, and PTA spot basis remains generally strong. However, its sustainability will be tested by expectations of polyester production cuts, while weakening terminal demand will also exert downward pressure. The industry chain faces inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter. In the short term, the TA May futures price is expected to primarily follow cost trends, facing pressure from polyester production cuts, making it difficult to break through previous resistance levels. Industry participants can consider rolling short hedges in the 5200-5300 range. Medium-term support is seen in the 4950-5050 range.
Related Market News PTA Units: A 3.6-million-ton PTA unit in East China is currently reducing rates and is scheduled to begin planned maintenance around Jan 15; a 1.25-million-ton PTA unit in South China is expected to shut down around Jan 15, with a preliminary restart scheduled for late March; a 3-million-ton PTA unit in East China has restarted; a 2.5-million-ton PTA unit is expected to shut down at the end of the month, with the restart time to be determined. The capacity involved in these changes accounts for 11.2% of the total. Polyester Units: A leading large factory in Xiaoshan announced maintenance schedules for 6 polyester units around the end of February (around the Spring Festival): a 250k-ton unit in Taicang starting Jan 10; a 250k-ton unit in Shaoxing starting Jan 23; a 300k-ton unit in Haining starting Feb 1; a 550k-ton unit in Xiaoshan starting Feb 2; a 250k-ton unit in Jiaxing starting Feb 4; a 300k-ton unit in Fujian starting Feb 4. These units primarily produce polyester filament, with planned maintenance durations of 20-30 days. Another large factory in Tongxiang plans to arrange maintenance for three polyester units around the end of February after the Spring Festival: two units in Zhouqu (nominal capacity 250k + 300k) and one unit in Huzhou (nominal capacity 300k). These units are also configured for polyester filament, with maintenance durations of 15-20 days. The capacity involved in these changes accounts for 3.1% of the total. Sales-Production Ratio: Polyester filament sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak on Wednesday, with the average sales-production ratio estimated at around 40-50% by 3:30 PM. Sales-production ratios for several factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 100%, 40%, 50%, 35%, 40%, 40%, 40%, 30%, 80%, 70%, 20%, 0%, 0%, 20%, 100%, 70%, and 70%, respectively.
EG: Supply is increasing while demand is stable. Domestically, the ethylene glycol industry operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 74.2%. Among this, the operating rate for syngas-based units rose by 3.4 percentage points to 79.3%, sitting at a high level for the same period historically with further room for increase. Current prices are not yet sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts. Affected by this, the spot basis is weak, and warehouse receipts continue to flow into the market. Although rising freight costs and maintenance of Middle Eastern units may reduce imports in the first quarter, ample domestic supply means overall supply pressure remains significant. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory in January, with February potentially being the period of highest inventory pressure in the first half of the year. Overall, recently driven by a warming macroeconomic sentiment, the EG May contract price has rebounded from 3700 to near the 3900 mark, touching the 3900-4000 resistance zone. Consider trading with a high-sell, low-buy strategy within the reference range of 3700-4000.
PF: Supply and demand dynamics are stable on both sides. The operating rate for spun yarn using direct-spun polyester staple fiber held steady month-on-month at 99.1%. Low inventory levels at enterprises support production willingness, keeping the industry operating rate high, with relatively limited announced maintenance plans. On the demand side, downstream yarn enterprises are entering the pre-holiday winding-down phase. While formulating holiday plans, their purchasing attitude has become more cautious. Coupled with pressure to recoup funds, enterprises are generally accelerating collections, further highlighting characteristics of the demand off-season. The operating rate for polyester yarn decreased by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month to 64.3%. It is expected that the polyester yarn operating rate will accelerate its decline starting from the latter part of the month, subsequently restraining procurement demand for staple fiber. In the short term, weak terminal demand will continue to suppress prices, but cost-side support remains. The PF March futures price is expected to follow raw material prices, trading with a stronger bias amid volatility. Avoid chasing rallies. Medium-term support is seen in the 6300-6400 range.
Related Market News Sales-Production Ratio: Direct-spun polyester staple sales were mixed on Wednesday. As of around 3:00 PM, the average sales-production ratio was 72%. Sales-production ratios for some factories were: 105%, 10%, 100%, 70%, 50%, 30%, 60%, 109%, 30%, 50%.
PR: Supply is increasing while demand is weak. On the supply side, the bottle chip industry operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points month-on-month to 74.8%. With the restart of Sanfangxiang, the industry operating rate has improved but remains at a low level for the same period historically. Few subsequent reduction or shutdown plans have been announced so far. On the demand side, the current period is the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, and the room for production recovery in January is expected to be limited. Due to continuous production cuts in the polyester bottle chip industry since the fourth quarter of last year and further reductions around the Spring Festival this year, the bottle chip industry has been continuously destocking. Recently, spot supply has been tight, the basis has strengthened, and processing margins have expanded rapidly, making it the strongest performer in the polyester sector recently. In the short term, consider a long PR/short PF spread strategy. Medium-term support is seen in the 5850-5950 range.
Soda Ash: Soda ash futures fell slightly on Wednesday, while spot prices were mostly stable. The commodity market saw more gains than losses on Wednesday, indicating improved market sentiment. Fundamentally, recent maintenance schedules for soda ash have decreased. Last week's soda ash output increased by 57,000 tons week-on-week to 754,000 tons. The recent output recovery has increased supply-side pressure. Downstream demand declined slightly. The latest alkali plant inventory decreased by 8,000 tons from last Thursday to 1.565 million tons. The latest delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 13,000 tons from the previous week to 377,000 tons. Last week, 2 float glass production lines underwent cold repairs, and 1 photovoltaic glass production line underwent cold repair; instances of kiln mouth blockage in photovoltaic glass increased this week. The recent combined daily melting capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined, reducing demand for heavy soda ash, while demand for light soda ash remains stable for now. Purchasing enthusiasm from midstream and downstream players has weakened. Soda ash imports dipped slightly to 300 tons in November, while exports fell to 189,400 tons. Macro-wise, recent domestic real estate sales data declined month-on-month and were below the level of the same period last year; international macro influences are slightly positive (weaker USD index, reduced trade friction concerns); domestic policy disturbances have lessened. Overall, with short-term supply increasing and demand weakening, 'anti-involution'博弈 intensifies, but fundamentals are a drag, and soda ash is trading with volatility for now. On the warehouse receipt front, soda ash warehouse receipts decreased by 1,400 lots on Wednesday to 3,813 lots. Soda ash futures prices are expected to trade with a weak bias and volatility. For SA2605, the intraday reference range is 1190-1230.
Glass: Glass futures fell slightly on Wednesday, while spot prices were mostly stable. The short-term fundamentals for glass are showing marginal improvement, with supply pressure easing. Glass production decreased week-on-week last week, downstream purchasing enthusiasm improved, and inventories declined week-on-week. The latest glass inventory decreased by 67,000 tons to 2.776 million tons, but is up 27.0% year-on-year. Two glass production lines underwent cold repairs last week. The recent daily melting capacity for glass has decreased. The latest in-operation daily melting capacity is 1,500,745 tons/day, down approximately 4.0% year-on-year. Domestic completed floor area from January to November decreased by 18.0% year-on-year (the decline widened). Recent real estate sales data declined month-on-month and were below the level of the same period last year. The latest number of orders for glass deep-processing companies decreased by 1.1 days week-on-week to 8.6 days, down 16.1% year-on-year. In the short term, glass supply is declining, and demand is seasonally weakening, leading to volatile futures prices for now. Glass futures prices are expected to trade with volatility at low levels. For FG2605, the intraday reference range is 1080-1120.
Caustic Soda: As of January 14, 2026, the SH2602 contract fell 27 yuan/ton to 2,020 yuan/ton, and the SH2603 contract fell 38 yuan/ton to 2,093 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda was 650-740 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous working day. The procurement price for liquid caustic soda at a large local downstream alumina plant was 660 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price for 50% ion-membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 1,060-1,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the average price of the previous working day. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and recent inflows of some warehouse receipt sources into the market are impacting prices. Prices for 32% liquid caustic soda at some enterprises declined, and market prices for 32% liquid caustic soda fell. Transactions for 50% liquid caustic soda were quiet and stable, with prices holding steady. Short-term supply remains high, with no significant rate reductions observed at enterprises, combined with the impact of warehouse receipts, leading to weak operation. A bearish outlook is maintained outright. The reference price range for the main SH2603 contract is 2000-2200 yuan/ton.
PVC: As of the day session close on January 14, 2026, the PVC2605 contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 4,878 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price basis versus the main futures contract was -218 yuan/ton (strengthened 10 yuan/ton on a daily basis), the North China spot basis was -548 yuan/ton (weakened 10 yuan/ton daily), and the South China spot basis was -228 yuan/ton (strengthened 30 yuan/ton daily). Short-term reality versus expectation博弈 persists. Fundamentally, the supply-side operating rate continues on an upward trend month-on-month, and supply pressure has not significantly eased. A positive factor is the substantial slowdown in the pace of new PVC capacity additions in 2026. In the short term, the 'anti-involution' drive based on differentiated electricity prices in 2026 is expected to remain a driver for coal-chemical chain PVC. Furthermore, the cancellation of export tax rebates is positive for exports from January to March. Short-term fundamental improvements are limited, but expectations are optimistic, leading to volatile trading. A volatile outlook is maintained outright. The reference price range for the main V2605 contract is 4700-5000 yuan/ton.
Comments