The prominent display of robotics and AI technology during the Spring Festival Gala has reignited market enthusiasm for the technology sector. In the first week following the holiday, the A-share market continued its overall pattern of strong, albeit volatile, spring season performance, with technology growth and resource-related stocks emerging as the two core investment themes. As of the market close on February 25, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29%, the ChiNext Index gained 1.41%, and the STAR 100 Index advanced by 1.67%. Within sector performance, the semiconductor industry chain was particularly active, with stocks such as Grinm Semiconductor Materials Co.,Ltd. (688432.SH) and Suzhou Uigreen Micro&Nano Technologies Co.,Ltd. (688661.SH) hitting the 20% daily gain limit.
Many interviewed institutional professionals believe that the technology growth style is highly likely to remain a significant market theme in 2026. A new technological industry cycle centered on AI is accelerating, combining high industry prosperity with policy support, which provides a foundation for the technology growth sector to continue leading the market.
Reflecting on 2025, the technology growth style in A-shares saw an extreme performance, becoming the most critical investment theme of the year. Wind data shows that the STAR 100 Index surged 54.63% for the full year, while the ChiNext Index rose 49.57% during the same period, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's gain of 18.41% and the CSI 300 Index's increase of 17.66%. Furthermore, a recent report on the market capitalization performance of A-share listed companies in 2025, released by the China Association of Public Companies, indicated that the total market capitalization of high-tech enterprises, represented by manufacturing and scientific research and technical services, grew by 33.3% and 32.1% respectively by the end of 2025 compared to the beginning of the year. Their share of the total A-share market capitalization increased by 4.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points, respectively. Additionally, the overall performance of technology-oriented companies provided support for their valuations, with nearly half of the listed companies in the manufacturing and scientific research and technical services sectors achieving a return on equity greater than 5% in 2025. Market capital has also shown increased focus on technology firms, with fund inflows providing a solid foundation for market cap growth. For instance, in the third quarter of 2025, the proportion of capital flowing into the information transmission, software and information technology services sector and the scientific research and technical services sector increased by 0.6 percentage points compared to the beginning of 2025.
Standing at the start of 2026, whether the "technology narrative" will continue is a key concern for the market. Several industry insiders expressed clear optimism regarding the dominant position of the technology growth style in 2026. Yuan Huaming, General Manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment, stated, "In 2026, the technology growth style will most likely remain a major market theme. The new tech industry cycle centered on AI is accelerating. High industry growth coupled with policy support gives the tech growth sector a foundation to continue leading the market. The market style may gradually shift from being theme-driven towards performance validation." Guo Liangliang, a Fund Manager at Furong Fund, further analyzed that the technology growth style encompasses assets with different attributes, forming a diversified matrix of investment opportunities. Different types of companies are expected to show varied performance at different stages throughout the year. Overall, the technology growth style in 2026 is likely to be characterized by "structural differentiation and fundamentals-driven" dynamics, with high-quality stocks expected to continue standing out. Bao Zhengyu, a Fund Manager at E Fund Management Co., judged that the market structure in 2026 will more clearly feature "opportunities in both growth and cyclical sectors." On the growth side, AI remains the most critical industry theme, with its core logic lying in the diffusion of applications driven by technological iteration and continued investment in industrial capital expenditure. Related fields still possess strong resilience and medium-to-long-term growth potential.
Following the broad uptrend in 2025, valuation divergence has emerged within the technology growth sector, with some sub-sectors having accumulated substantial gains. Several institutional figures highlighted that the sector currently presents both opportunities and risks. Bao Zhengyu, who is optimistic about the AI industry, also emphasized that as the market trend continues, differentiation within AI is likely to accelerate. The market will focus more on order fulfillment, profit quality, and competitive barriers, with the trading focus potentially shifting gradually from "theme diffusion" to "performance verification." "Therefore, we prefer to focus on sub-sectors with clear commercialization paths, cost advantages, or technological leadership, while maintaining caution towards highly volatile stocks lacking fundamental support or with stretched valuations," Bao Zhengyu stated.
Looking at specific sub-sectors, Yuan Huaming indicated that in 2026, areas related to AI infrastructure, such as data centers, chip design and manufacturing, memory, and optical communication, have relatively high certainty and may see repeated strong performance driven by demand for large model training and inference. Furthermore, as the competitive landscape for domestic large models stabilizes, the AI industry chain is expected to transition from "model capability competition" to "application scenario implementation." Additionally, Yuan Huaming believes that 2026 might see more pilot projects and small-scale applications for humanoid robots in real-world scenarios. If autonomous driving technology achieves a substantive leap from L2 to L3, it could have a profound impact on the transportation industry chain. Domestic commercial aerospace still has potential for policy catalysts and industry expectations, but it currently remains more of a thematic opportunity. However, he also cautioned, "For the technology growth sector, the market will constantly weigh 'long-term growth potential' against 'short-term high valuation pressure.' Caution is warranted in the long term for stocks lacking genuine earnings support."
Guo Liangliang is focusing on four types of opportunities: the dual improvement in performance and valuation for the computing power sector as demand continues to be released; supply chain restructuring opportunities brought by new technologies and directions; opportunities arising from the cyclical turning point in the memory industry; and opportunities represented by AI applications and humanoid robots, which signify the future direction of AI implementation. "Looking at the performance path for the full year, market investment opportunities since the start of 2026 have shown complex characteristics, with performance highly influenced by short-term narratives, such as breakthroughs in new technologies, changes in industry supply and demand, or the implementation of favorable policies, which can quickly drive阶段性 rallies in related stocks. However, investing solely by following short-term narratives is challenging and offers a low probability of success," Guo Liangliang stated. He emphasized that rallies driven by short-term narratives often lack sustainability and may even experience pullbacks as expectations are met or positive news is realized. For the sustained performance of the technology growth style in 2026, it is necessary to look beyond the surface of short-term narratives and focus more on whether the underlying companies can achieve continuous improvement in fundamental metrics such as earnings, profit margins, and revenue structure. "In 2026, relevant risk points still need attention, such as the risk of listed companies in related sectors underperforming earnings expectations, and the risk of technological iteration altering the existing industry landscape," Guo Liangliang warned. He noted that some technology growth stocks had already built up high earnings expectations in 2025. If 2026 sees weaker-than-expected industry demand, slower-than-expected technology implementation, intensified competition leading to price cuts, or high R&D investments weighing on profitability, it could lead to unmet earnings expectations and subsequent valuation corrections.
Comments