Over the past 11 hours, the U.S.-Iran conflict shifted from the brink of eruption to an abrupt de-escalation, triggering significant volatility across financial markets. U.S. stocks reversed early losses to close higher, while oil prices surged before retreating sharply. Here is a timeline linking key developments in the U.S.-Iran standoff with market reactions during this period.
According to comprehensive media reports, including from CCTV News, former President Donald Trump repeatedly warned Iran that a ceasefire must be reached by 8:00 PM EST on April 7 (8:00 AM Beijing Time on April 8), or the country faced the threat of complete destruction. At 8:00 PM Beijing Time on Tuesday, he further escalated tensions with a social media post stating, "Tonight, a civilization will be utterly wiped out, never to return."
These threats prompted an immediate market reaction. U.S. stocks opened significantly lower on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 1.7% at one point and the S&P 500 dropping up to 1.1%. Concurrently, international oil prices climbed higher.
During the midday session, oil prices began to retreat as U.S. Vice President Vance announced that military objectives had been achieved and sources indicated slight progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
A decisive turn occurred near the market close. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on social media that he had asked Trump to postpone the "deadline" by two weeks and requested that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz for the same period as a goodwill gesture. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed that Trump had received the Pakistani proposal and would respond. A senior Iranian official stated that Iran was actively considering the "two-week ceasefire" request.
In a last-minute reversal, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite managed to turn positive, securing their fifth consecutive day of gains. At the close, the S&P 500 was up 0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1%.
After the U.S. market closed, at approximately 6:30 AM Beijing Time on Wednesday, Trump announced a major decision: he agreed to suspend airstrikes and attacks on Iran for two weeks, conditional on Iran agreeing to fully, immediately, and safely open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Supreme National Security Council also stated it accepted the Pakistani-proposed ceasefire.
Following this news, futures for the three major U.S. stock indices rose nearly 2% in after-hours trading, with Nasdaq futures briefly surging close to 3%. In contrast, international oil prices plummeted. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell as much as 16%, though losses had moderated slightly at the time of writing.
Precious metals gained during early trading. Spot gold surged sharply intraday, touching $4,857.46 per ounce, before paring gains to trade at $4,816.09 per ounce, up 2.34%. Spot silver rose 4.2% to $76.02 per ounce.
The overall situation evoked Trump's perceived "TACO" pattern—an acronym on Wall Street for "Trump Always Chickens Out." This reflects a trader mindset that whenever market sell-offs driven by specific events become too severe, Trump tends to retreat, as seen during the trade war, threats regarding Greenland, and criticisms of the Federal Reserve's independence.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point. Although a two-week ceasefire is underway, the strait—a passage for 20% of global oil supplies—remains central to the dispute. Trump emphasized that a "full, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz" is a prerequisite for the truce. Iran, in a ten-point plan submitted to the U.S., stressed the need to coordinate with its armed forces to control transit through the strait and establish a secure transit protocol ensuring Iran's leading role.
Tom Graff, Chief Investment Officer at Facet, commented that investors should expect oil prices to remain significantly above pre-conflict levels for an extended period. He views Iran's potential blockade of the strait as a "negotiating chip," noting that while Iran may prefer to reopen it on its own terms, a permanent closure benefits no party, including Iran itself. Graff does not believe a closure lasting months or longer is sustainable and expects a resolution at some point.
Uncertainty remains high. Sameer Samana, Global Head of Equity and Real Assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, stated, "President Trump's negotiation strategy is to maximize uncertainty, which runs counter to the market's aversion to unpredictability. We believe this approach will persist throughout his term as he negotiates and renegotiates various situations and agreements—markets would do well to remember that."
Doug Peta of BCA Research added that constant news flow and the risk of new market-shaking events make it difficult for traders to stay on the sidelines. "Uncertainty is extremely high because the U.S. could exit the conflict in the time it takes to repost a Truth Social message or significantly escalate it, with vastly different outcomes," he noted.
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