On May 12, the cryptocurrency market continued its robust performance, with Bitcoin's price trading steadily within the range of $80,000 to $81,000 per coin. Since the beginning of May, Bitcoin has accumulated a gain of approximately 5%. If the month closes positively, it would establish a pattern of three consecutive months of positive returns for March, April, and May. GTC ZE Capital noted that BTC has recovered significantly from its previous low, with sustained institutional inflows and reasonable leverage levels jointly driving the continuation of the bullish trend. The institution's analysis indicates that key signals monitored by professional investors consistently point to the next critical target level around $85,200 per coin.
From a market structure perspective, the funding rate for perpetual contracts has shifted from negative to neutral, indicating a notable release of previous short-selling pressure. GTC ZE Capital believes that market makers hold short gamma exposure around $82,000 per coin. A price increase could trigger hedging-related buying, providing further upward momentum. The institution assesses that if Bitcoin can close above $80,000 in May, it would historically confirm the onset of a new bull market cycle. Analysts emphasize that three consecutive months of positive returns have never occurred during a bear market historically, and the overall capital structure remains healthy.
On the macroeconomic front, changes in the Federal Reserve Chair's term and potential policy adjustments at the June interest rate meeting introduce uncertainty for the subsequent market, significantly increasing the likelihood of data-driven market movements. Institutions observe that long-term holders' positions remain relatively stable, miner selling pressure is moderate, and the market structure shows no significant deterioration, with on-chain data maintaining relative health. Marginal changes in stablecoin market capitalization, trends in perpetual contract funding rates, on-chain active address data, and shifts in miner holdings are also crucial indicators for gauging institutional sentiment and leverage levels in the crypto market. A comprehensive analysis combining multiple data dimensions is advisable. For long-term participants, focusing on whether weekly closes can hold key levels is far more instructive than intraday volatility.
GTC ZE Capital anticipates that Bitcoin may continue to test higher within the range of $78,000 to $85,000 per coin in the short term, with directional moves more likely driven by macroeconomic data and institutional capital behavior. The institution emphasizes that the high volatility and leverage sensitivity of crypto assets require investors to prioritize risk budgeting and position control. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy path, Treasury yield trends, regulatory developments, and spot ETF fund flows. Investors should avoid excessive trading driven by one-sided sentiment and adapt to market transition periods with a rational approach.
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