Copper:
Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices exhibited a weak and volatile trend, with domestic spot refined copper imports showing a slight profit. On the geopolitical front, former US President Trump announced the US-Iran deal is "complete," with a peace agreement signing imminent. However, there is a clear divergence in statements regarding Strait passage fees. The US side stated the Strait of Hormuz will remain "open long-term without fees," while Iranian media reported Iran only agreed to a 60-day free period, after which it plans to charge fees for security and navigation services. Regarding central banks, market focus is on the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, with widespread expectations of a 25-basis-point rate hike. The anticipated tightening of liquidity could cause fluctuations in financial markets. On the inventory front, LME stocks fell by 2,500 tonnes to 361,600 tonnes; Comex stocks increased by 168 tonnes to 590,218 tonnes; SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 4,899 tonnes to 97,281 tonnes; BC copper warehouse receipts decreased by 124 tonnes to 14,038 tonnes. With the June 30 deadline for the US copper tariff assessment report approaching, traders still have an incentive to stockpile before the policy is finalized. High COMEX inventories and inter-market spreads are providing short-term support for overseas prices. Domestically, China is gradually entering a seasonal consumption lull, leading to a slight weakening in fundamental support. Although the US-Iran negotiations have achieved a major breakthrough, the market reaction remains relatively subdued. The US-Iran conflict has always had two sides; for instance, the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could resolve the overseas sulfur shortage. Additionally, with the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting, a debut by Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles combined with inflation exceeding expectations has shifted market focus from "whether to cut rates" to "whether to hike rates within the year." If the FOMC releases unexpectedly hawkish signals, the US dollar could continue to strengthen, putting pressure on copper prices. Overall, it is recommended to approach the market with caution, treating it as range-bound, and wait for full release of macro risks before making positioning decisions.
Nickel & Stainless Steel:
Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.14% to $17,815 per tonne, while SHFE nickel increased 0.17% to 135,560 yuan per tonne. Inventory-wise, LME stocks decreased by 6 tonnes to 274,932 tonnes, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell by 5 tonnes to 93,143 tonnes. Looking at premiums/discounts, the LME cash-to-3-months spread remained in negative territory; import nickel premiums held at -350 yuan per tonne. Supply is showing signs of proactive tightening. On one hand, an Indonesian mine has entered a maintenance phase due to quota issues; based on policy, some additional quota volume is expected in the second half of the year. On the other hand, following the previous policy adjustment to HPM, nickel ore and sulfur prices have led to reduced operating rates at some Indonesian projects. However, although supply is tightening in a sustained and segmented manner, primary nickel inventory pressure continues to build. June's electrolytic nickel production schedule shows only a modest decline, and the potential easing of sulfur supply could boost related capacity utilization rates. On the demand side, based on June production schedules, ternary cathode material output is expected to be flat month-on-month, while stainless steel nickel consumption is projected to decline slightly. Currently, within the nickel industry chain, inventory pressure remains the core contradiction. Short-term focus should be on macro resonance effects, while industry attention should remain on Indonesian quotas, sulfur prices, and supply issues.
Alumina, Primary Aluminium & Aluminium Alloy:
Overnight, alumina prices were weak and volatile. The AO2609 contract closed at 2,883 yuan per tonne, down 1.5%. Open interest increased by 1,350 lots to 278,000 lots. Aluminium prices were also weak. Overnight LME aluminium closed at $3,379 per tonne, down 4.4%, with stocks decreasing by 425 tonnes to 319,500 tonnes. The AL2607 contract closed at 23,795 yuan per tonne, down 1.8%, with open interest rising by 13,497 lots to 238,000 lots. Aluminium alloy prices were weak and volatile. Overnight, the main AD2608 contract closed at 23,060 yuan per tonne, down 1.41%. Open interest increased by 281 lots to 16,448 lots. In the spot market, SMM's alumina price rebounded to 2,710 yuan per tonne. Spot discounts for aluminium ingots widened to 30 yuan per tonne. Foshan A00 aluminium prices retreated to 24,140 yuan per tonne, at a 20 yuan per tonne discount to Wuxi A00. Aluminium billet processing fees were mostly stable across regions, except for a 150 yuan per tonne decrease in Baotou. Processing fees for 1A60 series aluminium rod increased by 50-100 yuan per tonne; fees for 6/8 series rods increased by 100 yuan per tonne; low-carbon 6/8 series fees increased by 52-146 yuan per tonne. Market rumors suggest Guinea's Ministry of Mines plans to release detailed documents on bauxite quota issues this week. Additionally, Shanxi producers face production restriction pressure due to environmental controls on red mud. Alumina inventories have accumulated by nearly 300,000 tonnes over the past three weeks, with smelter restocking far slower than the pace of alumina production and import inflows. It is noted that Guinea has entered its rainy season cycle. Combined with the potential implementation of subsequent mining policies, shipping declines and cost increases could lead to sentiment-driven premiums for alumina. If mining policy intensity falls short of expectations and subsequent shipments see no substantial tightening, price performance may revert to fundamental logic. The market shows fatigue and desensitization towards the near-completion of US-Iran talks, with Middle East geopolitical premium volatility fading. The tug-of-war between overseas supply gaps and low LME inventories versus weak domestic seasonal demand has placed primary aluminium in a consolidating phase, awaiting whether domestic social inventories can accelerate their drawdown. Additionally, attention is on the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting for signals on the monetary policy path.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon:
On the 15th, industrial silicon prices were weak and volatile. The main 2609 contract closed at 8,670 yuan per tonne, down 1.08% on the day, with open interest decreasing by 212 lots to 255,000 lots. Baichuan's spot reference price for industrial silicon was 9,182 yuan per tonne, down 4 yuan per tonne from the previous trading day. The price for the lowest deliverable grade fell to 8,600 yuan per tonne, with the spot premium of 30 yuan per tonne turning into a discount of 25 yuan per tonne. Polysilicon prices were weak and volatile. The main 2609 contract closed at 38,030 yuan per tonne, down 0.3% on the day, with open interest increasing by 2,561 lots to 99,000 lots. The standard for the lowest deliverable grade dropped to 32,500 yuan per tonne, with the spot discount widening to 4,800 yuan per tonne. The cost premium formed by earlier coking coal price increases is being eroded. After the release of positive sentiment, industrial silicon may face some correction pressure. Recently, the pace of restarts by producers in southwestern China has slowed, suggesting circulating supply outside of captive use may gradually decline. Divergence in macro and micro sentiment has led to a widening gap between futures and spot prices for polysilicon. Market rumors regarding energy consumption control policies have not been officially confirmed, but market sentiment has already fully priced in related positive expectations. Polysilicon may enter a phase of policy validation, awaiting clarity on the pace following official announcements. If policies materialize, prices could maintain high-level volatility; otherwise, they may face a rapid retracement of previous gains from limit-up moves, warranting vigilance for sharp market fluctuations.
Lithium Carbonate:
Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures 2609 contract fell 1.32% to 174,440 yuan per tonne, with daily open interest increasing by 3,274 lots to 450,000 lots. On the spot price front, the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 170,500 yuan per tonne, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate held at 166,500 yuan per tonne. The average price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particle) fell by 1,500 yuan per tonne to 155,000 yuan per tonne. Regarding warehouse receipts, inventory increased by 98 tonnes yesterday to 53,885 tonnes. On the supply side, weekly production increased by 85 tonnes week-on-week to 26,429 tonnes; June's lithium carbonate production is estimated to increase 2.6% month-on-month to 116,275 tonnes. On the demand side, according to SMM data, June production for ternary cathode material is forecast to be flat month-on-month at 88,990 tonnes; lithium iron phosphate is expected to grow 3% month-on-month to 504,150 tonnes; lithium cobalt oxide is projected to increase 3% month-on-month to 8,250 tonnes; lithium manganate output is estimated to decline 2% month-on-month to 10,780 tonnes. Based on production schedules from other institutions, June cathode material output is expected to increase 6.5% month-on-month, while battery cell output is forecast to rise 6.2% month-on-month. According to market statistics, global lithium-ion battery production is projected to increase 8.9% month-on-month. On the inventory front, large-sample inventories decreased by 1,412 tonnes week-on-week to 132,991 tonnes, while small-sample inventories fell by 957 tonnes week-on-week to 97,829 tonnes. Using the large-sample口径, inventory in other segments decreased by 1,485 tonnes week-on-week to 69,874 tonnes; smelter inventory decreased by 121 tonnes week-on-week to 16,494 tonnes; downstream inventory increased by 194 tonnes week-on-week to 46,623 tonnes. Last week, prices showed signs of stabilizing, and warehouse receipts saw some drawdown. However, the basis remains weak. If further positive feedback between the basis and warehouse receipts is observed, it could pave the way for further upward price修复. It is important to note that downstream inventory stocking coefficients have expanded again. If a one-sided market trend emerges, a situation of "price without market" could still form, potentially limiting short-term upside. Attention should be paid to whether new variables intervene in market expectations, such as: shipping delays from Zimbabwe, the potential restart of the Jianxiawo mine, and the performance of demand growth rates.
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