According to a research report by CMSC, China's grandparent stock chicken imports in 2025 decreased by more than 10% year-on-year. Overseas avian influenza outbreaks have further impacted domestic breeding stock introductions, leading to expectations of high profitability in parent stock chickens in 2026. This is projected to subsequently affect the supply of commercial broiler chicks. In March, the white-feather broiler breeding sector experienced high prosperity, with chicken product prices outperforming the same period last year, allowing farming operations to return to profitability. Holiday demand boosted the yellow-feather broiler market, with leading companies achieving excellent per-bird profits. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, the yellow-feather broiler industry entered an upward cycle, with prices recovering significantly. High-quality enterprises benefited from both volume and price increases, demonstrating strong per-bird profitability. The outlook for 2026 remains positive for sustained high prosperity in the yellow-feather broiler sector. Key viewpoints from CMSC are as follows:
White-Feather Broilers: Farming Sector Turns Profitable in March, Breeding Segment Remains Strong In March, the average price of live chickens in major production regions was 7.21 yuan per kilogram, up 1.2% year-on-year but down 3.7% month-on-month. The average chick price was 3.01 yuan per bird, increasing 7.3% year-on-year and 19.3% month-on-month. The average chicken product price was 9,088 yuan per ton, rising 1.1% year-on-year but declining 2.3% month-on-month. Live chicken farming operations achieved an average profit of 0.13 yuan per bird, turning profitable compared to the previous month. After the Lantern Festival, live chicken prices stabilized with a slight decline, but recovered by the end of the month. Although rising feed costs squeezed farming profits, overall profitability improved compared to February. Chick prices showed positive momentum. China's grandparent stock imports in 2025 fell by over 10% year-on-year. Additionally, avian influenza outbreaks in France's main breeding regions of Maine-et-Loire and Côtes-d'Armor during November-December 2025 further impacted domestic breeding stock introductions. This is expected to maintain high profitability in parent stock chickens in 2026, subsequently affecting commercial chick supply. The breeding segment outlook remains favorable.
Yellow-Feather Broilers: Holiday Demand Boosts Prices, Profitability Improves In March, the average price of fast-growing yellow-feather broilers was 4.93 yuan per jin, up 0.4% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month. The average price of Xueshan grass chickens was 6.51 yuan per jin, down 5.4% year-on-year but up 15% month-on-month. Live chicken prices showed a pattern of starting low and ending high, with significant recovery from mid-to-late March due to Qingming Festival stockpiling. Considering production capacity, current parent stock inventory has fallen to historically low levels. Combined with over six months of industry losses in 2025, this has led to further capacity reduction. Supply contraction provides a foundation for future price increases. Since Q4 2025, the yellow-feather broiler sector has entered an upward cycle with notable price recovery. High-quality enterprises have experienced both volume and price growth, achieving excellent per-bird profits. Current production costs for yellow-feather broilers have declined to low levels, with estimated per-bird profits for quality enterprises reaching 1-2 yuan in Q1 2026. Leading companies are expected to demonstrate strong profit performance.
Outlook: White-Feather Breeding Sector Remains Strong, Yellow-Feather Broilers Poised for Profitability in 2026 1) White-Feather Broilers: China's grandparent stock imports decreased by over 10% year-on-year in 2025. Avian influenza in France's main breeding regions during November-December 2025 has constrained import stock renewal. With excellent parent stock price performance in the first quarter, high profitability in parent stock chickens is anticipated for 2026, affecting subsequent commercial chick supply. The breeding segment outlook is positive. Sunong Development is highly recommended. 2) Yellow-Feather Broilers: Current parent stock inventory has declined to historically low levels. Combined with over six months of industry losses in 2025, supply reduction establishes a foundation for future price increases. Since Q4 2025, the sector has entered an upward cycle with significant price recovery. Quality enterprises have benefited from volume-price growth with strong per-bird profits. Sustained high prosperity is expected in 2026. Lihua Stock and Dekon Agri are strongly recommended.
Risk warnings: Chicken price fluctuations exceeding expectations; listed companies' sales volume and cost performance falling short of forecasts; outbreaks of large-scale uncontrollable diseases; feed raw material price volatility beyond expectations; major food safety incidents.
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