The wave of hard technology investment centered on artificial intelligence is driving a shift in investment logic. Markets are gradually moving from macroeconomic aggregate thinking toward deep pricing of specific industrial trends and company quality. The "beta-driven rallies" seen in some sectors may be difficult to reproduce, and "divergence" is increasingly becoming the norm in the A-share market. Wind data statistics show that in 2025, the non-ferrous metals and communications sectors led gains, with annual increases both exceeding 84%, while coal and food & beverage were the only two sectors among the 31 Shenwan primary industries to record declines. Against this backdrop of structural divergence, professional asset management institutions with deep industry expertise and forward-looking positioning may be more likely to be rewarded.
At a recent ICBC Credit Suisse 2026 strategy dialogue, four fund managers with long-term focus on cutting-edge industries engaged in in-depth discussions on opportunities in sectors such as AI, new energy, robotics, cycles, and non-ferrous metals, based on research findings from their respective teams. They shared a core strategy for navigating the uncertainties of hard tech investment: "Aim high, but keep feet on the ground." The ICBC Credit Suisse investment research team believes the core of hard tech investing lies in grasping industrial trends and innovation directions, identifying growth opportunities with both commercial value and social benefits amidst technological iteration and structural reshaping, while managing sector volatility through deep research, industry tracking, and position management. From observation, to understanding, to foresight, this dialogue incisively outlines the hard tech investment landscape and provides investors with mental frameworks for maintaining rationality and updating perceptions amid rapid industrial evolution.
Seizing Opportunities:透视产业方向 Investing is like a long journey; choosing the right direction is more important than running blindly. As divergence between sectors and individual stocks becomes increasingly pronounced, how can one discern direction and investment opportunities beneath the surface? Several ICBC Credit Suisse fund managers shared their teams' industry insights.
First, Jin Xing, Assistant Fund Manager in the Research Department, provided a detailed analysis of the widespread investor concern: "Is there a bubble in AI investment?" He pointed out that AI, as a technological transformation potentially on par with past industrial revolutions, is still in its early stages. Although short-term imbalances between investment and output exist, judging from industrial trends, historical cycles, corporate investment, and valuation structures, the future evolution space and time span for AI will likely far exceed current market expectations. Therefore, greater attention should be paid to its long-term value and structural opportunities within the industrial chain. Core indicators for assessing the sustainability of AI investment momentum include closely tracking model development, technological trends, shipment volumes, and changes in the value of optical modules.
Beyond AI, robots, which gained prominence during the Spring Festival Gala, are also attracting significant attention. According to Zhang Shuli, Fund Manager in the Research Department, the robotics industry is currently transitioning from technological breakthroughs to commercial validation. While robots have garnered widespread attention in demonstrative scenarios like performances and walking, the industry still has some distance to go before achieving large-scale commercial application and profitability. The ICBC Credit Suisse TMT team notes that the main constraint on large-scale robotics commercialization is not currently cost, but rather the fine manipulation capabilities of dexterous hands and the cognitive understanding abilities of the AI "brain." However, with the rapid ongoing development of AI technology, robots, as important application vehicles for AI, are expected to see gradual improvements in intelligence and operational capabilities, potentially leading to broader application across more scenarios in the future.
Looking back at 2025, the new energy and chemical sectors also performed notably. Gao Jingxia, Fund Manager in the Research Department, analyzed that the new energy sector experienced a pattern of falling first then rising throughout the year. The strong performance was primarily underpinned by better-than-expected demand, with explosive growth in segments like electric vehicles, energy storage, and wind power driving a recovery in industry-wide sentiment. Meanwhile, the chemical industry, after a four-year downturn, has seen profits bottom out, with increasing certainty of an upward trajectory. The current moment may be like the dawn before sunrise, awaiting final clearance, with signs of light already visible. The implementation of anti-involution policies in the second half of 2025 accelerated the exit of outdated capacity, guided more rational competition among enterprises, and led to price recovery for some product varieties. Looking ahead to 2026, the ICBC Credit Suisse New Energy and New Energy Vehicle team believes the upward beta trend for new energy and chemicals may continue, necessitating a greater focus on挖掘阿尔法 within these sectors to enhance portfolio returns.
Everything has its cycle. Regarding cyclical industries closely tied to economic and industry cycles, Mu Yagan, Fund Manager in the Research Department, stated that two major medium-to-long-term trends – global supply chain restructuring and domestic "anti-involution" policies – are reshaping the logic of cyclical industry development. On one hand, overseas "re-industrialization" and "manufacturing回流" are driving demand for cyclical products like non-ferrous metals, while export controls by resource-rich countries exacerbate supply-side scarcity, potentially bringing more attention and premium valuation to domestic firms holding key resources and capacity. On the other hand, domestic "anti-involution" policies continue to focus on capacity control in industries like chemicals, steel, and coal, promoting supply-demand improvements and price stabilization, which also provides a new investment theme for cyclical sectors. The ICBC Credit Suisse Cyclicals team suggests subsequently focusing on寻找那些 industries where supply has been substantially cleared, demand demonstrates resilience, and valuations remain reasonable or even low.
Focusing on Opportunities: Sub-sectors Expected to Bloom in Multiple Areas After clarifying the direction, these research "stalwarts" also dissected the more certain sub-sector opportunities within their industries for the next 1-2 years.
For the AI industrial chain, Jin Xing believes a multi-segment blooming trend is likely. Firstly, he is optimistic about "light" – computing power being the "pick-and-shovel" play – with optical modules expected to be the fastest-growing segment. Secondly, application-side segments like AI glasses, AI phones, and data robots could be new directions in 2026. Finally, domestic semiconductors are poised for development opportunities; the gap between domestic and overseas AI development in 2025 has further opened space for import substitution, with significant opportunities likely in computing chips, advanced processes, memory, and semiconductor equipment in 2026. Overall, the ICBC Credit Suisse TMT team led by Jin Xing anticipates multiple structural opportunities in the AI产业链 in 2026, across both hardware and applications, domestic and overseas.
As AI empowers thousands of industries, numerous AI application fields are nurturing new opportunities. Compared to robotics, the commercialization of intelligent driving is progressing more rapidly. Zhang Shuli分析指出 that this is mainly due to its relatively lower implementation difficulty and the significant boost AI large models have provided to autonomous driving capabilities. The ICBC Credit Suisse TMT team believes future investment opportunities in intelligent driving will likely focus on companies specializing in intelligent driving operations and supply chain firms providing components for intelligent vehicles – areas where Chinese manufacturing holds an advantage.
Regarding the increasingly prominent low-altitude economy sector, investigations by the ICBC Credit Suisse TMT team found its development pace seems slower than expected, primarily because industry safety requirements exceed those for robots and intelligent driving. Zhang Shuli anticipates that future low-altitude economy development will see the gradual implementation of top-level design supporting policies, while advancements in solid-state battery technology will address endurance shortcomings of aircraft. Over the next 3-5 years, with technological verification and policy refinement, the low-altitude economy is expected to become a new mode of transportation, entering an industrial development phase.
Amid a global interest rate cutting cycle, the供需格局 reshaping driven by the new energy revolution, and the push from "anti-involution" policies, the ICBC Credit Suisse Cyclicals team led by Mu Yagan summarizes their 2026 cyclical investment strategy as "Following the trend to dig for expectation gaps, actively watching for turnaround situations." They recommend focusing on three key directions: first, the non-ferrous metals sector, supported by both resource supply bottlenecks and demand from new economies like AI; second, the aviation sector, which may have entered the right side of its cycle; third, segments of the real estate chain where some quality companies are already showing resilience.
Discussing细分投资机会 in the new energy sector, Gao Jingxia suggests focusing on景气修复 opportunities in mature industrial chains and structural opportunities arising from technological upgrades. From a profit recovery perspective, the ICBC Credit Suisse New Energy and New Energy Vehicle team is relatively more optimistic about the upstream segments of the energy storage-lithium battery chain, including lithium carbonate, lithium iron phosphate, cathodes, anodes, and electrolytes. Due to cautious capacity expansion in recent years against growing demand, excess capacity in these segments has been gradually digested, making the profit recovery potential of upstream and midstream links noteworthy. From a technological upgrade perspective, solid-state batteries represent a potentially disruptive technology方向 worth anticipating, whose progress could reshape the industry landscape and provide a new growth theme for investment.
If solid-state batteries could be a foundational condition for many emerging industries, then technological progress in new materials is the material condition for breakthroughs in更多产业. Gao Jingxia further pointed out that future new materials investment will increasingly focus on new fields with high technical barriers, favorable competitive landscapes, and large long-term potential, seeking targets with both material innovation and industrialization capabilities. For the chemical sector, it's necessary to挖掘阿尔法 opportunities within the upward beta trend, focusing on varieties with improving supply-demand dynamics, concentrated market structures, and significant losses, as well as quality enterprises with steep cost curves and significant leading advantages.
Navigating Hard Tech Investment Uncertainty: Aim High, But Keep Feet Firmly on the Ground While tech investment holds vast potential like the stars and seas, high volatility and uncertainty are constant companions. As professional asset managers, when short-term technological paths are unclear, should investment decisions rely more on verifiable data or deducible end-game thinking? Judging from the fund managers' shares, they unanimously mentioned "faith" in tech investing,普遍认为 a need to adhere to industrial trends, and the importance of seeking certainty from uncertainty through deep research, close tracking, phased judgment, and position management.
"Stay on the right path." Jin Xing emphasized that the core of hard tech investment lies in seizing the correct industrial direction,布局 around certain trends like AI models evolving towards Agent multimodality, improvements in computing power interconnect bandwidth and transmission rates, and increasing energy efficiency requirements.同时, maintain firm belief in the irreversible trend of import substitution, believing that subsequent breakthroughs in more critical areas will remain a key theme for domestic tech investment in the next 3-5 years; also have faith in China's engineer dividend, which is a unique advantage.
Zhang Shuli also agrees that tech investment requires a degree of faith in the corresponding sectors, a faith stemming from technology's ability to solve societal pain points and enhance quality of life;同时, maintain high attention to the industry and allocate at appropriate times. Attention should be based more on data tracking, using持续跟踪 of core industry data to judge development trends for the next 1-2 years, and seizing investment opportunities结合 valuation.
Gao Jingxia believes both verifiable data and deducible end-game thinking are crucial. However, she further clarified their sequence: "For tech sector investment, one should first aim high, then keep feet on the ground." First, use end-game thinking to judge the future trend of a technology, focusing on whether it aligns with the direction of enhancing human productivity, solves actual pain points, and has a feasible implementation path. Then, use verifiable data to track technological progress and judge industrialization inflection points. In terms of investment operations, Gao Jingxia倾向于 using position management to withstand volatility: light positions in the early technology stage, increased attention at the industrialization inflection point, and potentially heavier positions during the growth stage.
From a general investment perspective, Mu Yagan analyzed that the essence of both hard tech and cyclical investing involves judgments about the future, requiring fund managers to choose between "precise errors" and "vague correctness." He shared that grasping the different core contradictions of an investment target at different stages might be key to dealing with uncertainty. In the early investment stage, expectations may dominate, requiring a focus on "vague correctness" by judging the industry's development space and opportunity level. Once industry consensus forms, it's necessary to utilize data verification, tracking performance delivery, customer progress, technological process evolution, and other indicators to strive for enhanced investment success rates.
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