UBS Maintains 'Buy' on Wynn Macau and Melco Crown Post-Golden Week, Citing Slower Daily Gaming Revenue

Stock News05-12

UBS has released a research report maintaining its 'Buy' rating on WYNN MACAU and Melco Crown Entertainment, listing them as preferred stocks within the sector. According to the bank's channel checks, Macau's average daily gaming revenue for the first ten days of May, including the Golden Week holiday, was approximately MOP 780 million, roughly flat compared to the same period last year. This was primarily impacted by a lower-than-expected win rate in the VIP segment. UBS estimates that, assuming a theoretical VIP win rate of 3% to 3.3%, the average daily revenue could have reached MOP 850 million to MOP 900 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 10% to 15%.

For this period, the mass-market segment's average daily revenue grew by 17% to 20% month-on-month, while VIP gaming volume increased by 18% to 22% month-on-month. However, the actual VIP win rate was only 2% to 2.3%. The report notes that market expectations suggest the average daily revenue for the remaining 21 days of May needs to reach about MOP 701 million to achieve the overall market forecast of approximately MOP 727 million in average daily revenue for the entire month, implying a year-on-year growth of 6.3%.

Currently, Macau gaming stocks are valued at around 8.3 times the forecasted 2026 enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple, which is about 0.75 standard deviations below the two-year average.

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