Haitong International has released a research report forecasting that AUNTEA JENNY (02589) will achieve revenues of 4.22 billion yuan, 4.92 billion yuan, and 5.63 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 540 million yuan, 620 million yuan, and 710 million yuan for the same periods. Referencing the company's expected growth rate for 2026 and the industry's average valuation level, the firm has assigned AUNTEA JENNY a 2026 P/E multiple of 16X, corresponding to a target price of HK$105 (HKD/CNY=0.9). This marks the initiation of coverage with an "Outperform" rating. Haitong International's primary views are as follows:
AUNTEA JENNY: A New Chapter with 10,000 Stores, Painting the Future in Shanghai AUNTEA JENNY is a leading ready-made beverage company in China. Its main brand surpassed 10,000 stores by the end of 2025, becoming the third freshly-made tea beverage brand in the country to reach this milestone. The report suggests that the time window for new brands to rapidly scale up through new product categories in the ready-made tea beverage industry has closed. Leading brands now possess strong capabilities to break through with product categories rapidly, leveraging their scaled channel advantages. The future industry landscape is expected to be one where the strong remain strong, characterized by the coexistence of leading brands and regional players.
Building a "One Body, Two Wings" Business Structure with the AUNTEA JENNY brand in China as the core, supported by the Tea Waterfall brand and overseas operations. (1) AUNTEA JENNY China — Accumulating Small Gains to Achieve Something Substantial: Although the AUNTEA JENNY brand was established relatively late, its store expansion has not lagged, demonstrating strong performance in northern markets. The report attributes this success not only to seizing the blue-ocean opportunity in the north at the time but also to: ① A mutually beneficial management philosophy that shares resources and complements strengths: The company achieved rapid early expansion through a franchise model, introduced external talent to aid development, was generous with equity incentives, and shared benefits with suppliers. ② "Her Power" + Healthy Drinks, Precisely Targeting the Core Customer Base: In terms of brand image, from the logo to packaging materials and store design, the company continuously incorporates attributes of "Her Power." Regarding products, it builds its product matrix around distinctive grain-based tea drinks, driven by a health and wellness philosophy, achieving precise customer acquisition through this dual approach. ③ Low-threshold store model and inclusive franchisee system: Building upon an accumulated base of franchisees, the single-store model has seen significant improvement with incremental customer traffic from food delivery platform subsidies in 2025 and the segmentation of different customer price tiers through targeted channel innovations, shortening the payback period by several months. If new franchisees gradually reinvest profits into opening multiple stores, the store network will achieve more sustainable expansion.
(2) Tea Waterfall and Overseas Operations — Creating New Growth Engines through Group Strategy and Globalization: As the first wing to be activated in the "One Body, Two Wings" strategy, the Tea Waterfall brand is specifically designed for lower-tier markets, creating differentiation from the main brand while leveraging its resources for synergy. The overseas operations adopt a "high-profile, high-investment" approach, prioritizing expansion into relatively developed regional markets, with flagship stores opening successfully in multiple countries. The report believes that both channel下沉 (penetrating lower-tier markets) and overseas expansion are the right directions for a brand after reaching a certain scale, and they are still in relatively early stages with significant potential.
Financial Forecasts and Risk Warnings Regarding store openings, the report anticipates market share will concentrate towards leading players. It projects that AUNTEA JENNY brand expansion will be relatively stable in 2026, with over 2,000 new stores, while the Tea Waterfall brand accelerates its expansion, opening over 1,000 new stores. For same-store sales, the high base in 2025 due to delivery subsidies is expected to be followed by a period where the company maintains relative stability in 2026 by strengthening coffee and derivative scenarios and increasing marketing efforts; same-store sales are forecast to be largely flat in 2026. Risk warnings include: economic and consumption growth falling short of expectations, slowing growth in the ready-made beverage market, intensifying industry competition, food safety risks, and expansion pace failing to meet expectations.
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