As the National Day holiday approaches, A-share market investors are once again weighing how to position their assets ahead of the long break.
Historical data shows that before and after long holidays, market capital flows and price movements often display a certain "calendar effect" (i.e., observable statistical characteristics of financial assets at specific calendar points), offering investors a reference for understanding shifts in market sentiment.
Based on Wind data covering the ten years from 2016 to 2025, the A-share market has shown a pronounced pattern of "cautious volume contraction before the holiday and recovery and warming after it."
The Shanghai Composite Index rose in the five trading days before the National Day holiday in four of those years, namely 2018, 2023, 2024 and 2025. After external risks are released during the long break, market sentiment after the holiday typically recovers to some extent, with the index gaining on the first trading day after the holiday in seven of the ten years.
Setting aside the headline index moves, the behavior of leveraged funds and main funds serves as an important window into shifts in market sentiment before and after the long holiday.
Reviewing the data for those ten years, margin traders tended to trim positions before the National Day holiday, possibly to avoid holiday interest costs and the risk of overseas volatility.
For example, the margin financing and securities lending balance fell by 19.96 billion yuan before the 2016 holiday, by 64.06 billion yuan in 2021, by 17.07 billion yuan in 2023, and by 22.63 billion yuan before the 2025 holiday.
On the first day after the holiday, funds typically flowed back in, with the balance declining after the holiday in only one year, 2022, while growing in all other years.
In 2024 in particular, boosted by the sharp market rally in late September that year, the margin balance rose by 69.42 billion yuan before the holiday instead of falling, and then increased by another 107.7 billion yuan on the first day after the holiday.
In terms of industry distribution, net inflows from main funds before the holiday were relatively concentrated.
Wind data shows that in the five trading days before the National Day holiday across those ten years, among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, 15 industries recorded net inflows from main funds (measured by large-order transactions) three times or more.
Among them, the food and beverage industry topped the list with five net inflows, while banking, pharmaceuticals and biologics, beauty care, and power equipment each recorded four.
Judging by the number of net inflows, large consumption and some defensive sectors were relatively favored by main funds before the holiday, which may be related to optimistic expectations for holiday consumption.
Overall, the so-called long-holiday "calendar effect" can be understood as a phased response of funds to short-term uncertainty, namely reducing positions to avoid risk before the holiday and repricing after that risk is released.
For investors, historical data cannot serve as a basis for predicting future market moves.
In practice, with a long holiday approaching, investors should base decisions on current macroeconomic policy and corporate fundamentals, stay rational, and avoid blindly chasing rallies or selling into declines.
Table 1: Performance of the three major A-share indices in the five days before the holiday and on the first day after it. Table 2: Changes in margin financing and securities lending in the five days before the holiday and on the first day after it. Table 3: Net inflows from main funds and price changes by Shenwan first-level industry in the five days before the holiday and on the first day after it.
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