Gf Securities released a research report stating that for the full year of 2025, the combined commercial hog slaughter volume of listed companies reached 111.53 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 25%. Excluding Muyuan Foods, the total commercial hog slaughter volume of the listed companies was 90.39 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 30%, indicating an acceleration in the overall slaughter growth rate. Concurrently, the proportion of piglet slaughter volume to the total has increased significantly among listed companies. Piglet prices have rebounded sharply recently; according to Yongyi Consulting, the current price for 7kg piglets has rebounded to 307 yuan per head. This is partly due to the gradual arrival of the peak restocking season and may also reflect farmers' positive outlook on hog prices for the second half of 2026. Considering the accumulated losses in the industry, hog production capacity is expected to continue its reduction.
Tracking listed companies' slaughter data: The slaughter data for December 2025 from major hog farming companies has been largely disclosed. Based on the monthly operational data announcements from various companies, the overall slaughter volume of listed companies in December 2025 maintained month-on-month growth. For the full year 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of hog slaughter volume increased. In terms of slaughter structure, due to the rebound in piglet prices, the proportion of piglet sales to total sales for listed companies increased month-on-month in December 2025. For the full year 2025, the volume of piglets sold by listed companies saw a significant increase. Regarding slaughter weight, the average slaughter weight for listed companies decreased month-on-month in December.
In terms of slaughter volume, in December, the commercial hog slaughter volume of listed companies was 19.05 million heads, up 7.1% month-on-month and 11.3% year-on-year. Excluding Muyuan Foods, the combined commercial hog slaughter volume of the listed companies was 12.07 million heads, an increase of 8.0% month-on-month and 35.7% year-on-year. For the full year 2025, the total commercial hog slaughter volume of listed companies was 111.53 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 25%. Excluding Muyuan Foods, the total was 90.39 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 30%, indicating an improvement in the overall slaughter growth rate. Specifically, in December, the slaughter volumes (excluding piglets) for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope Liuhe, and Dekon Agriculture & Animal Husbandry increased by +5.7%, +4.8%, +15.4%, and +4.1% month-on-month, respectively. For the full year 2025, Muyuan Foods (excluding piglets), Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope Liuhe, and Dekon Agriculture & Animal Husbandry cumulatively slaughtered 77.98 million, 40.48 million, 17.55 million, and 10.83 million hogs, representing year-on-year increases of +19%, +34%, +6%, and +23%, respectively.
Among small and medium-sized farming enterprises, in December, Tangrenshen Group, Tiankang Animal Husbandry, Shennong Group, and Ju Xing Agriculture & Animal Husbandry saw their commercial hog slaughter volumes change by +8.3%, -4.1%, -0.3%, and +27.9% month-on-month, respectively. For the full year 2025, the cumulative commercial hog slaughter volumes for Tangrenshen Group, Tiankang Animal Husbandry, Shennong Group, and Ju Xing Agriculture & Animal Husbandry were 5.33 million, 3.19 million, 3.07 million, and 4.58 million heads, with year-on-year increases of +23%, +5%, +35%, and +66%, respectively.
Slaughter Structure: In 2025, the proportion of piglet slaughter volume increased significantly for listed companies overall. For the full year 2025, Wens Foodstuff Group, Dekon Agriculture & Animal Husbandry, Shennong Group, Tangrenshen Group, and Jingji Zhinong sold 5.03 million, 600,000, 370,000, 260,000, and 320,000 piglets, representing year-on-year changes of +341%, +186%, +147%, -40%, and +11%, respectively.
Sales Price: In December, the calculated average sales price for the listed companies (excluding Dongrui Shares) was 11.53 yuan/kg, down 1.4% month-on-month.
Slaughter Weight: In December, the overall slaughter weight of listed companies increased month-on-month. The calculated average slaughter weight for 11 listed companies was approximately 117.3 kg per head, a decrease of 1.7% month-on-month.
Investment Recommendation: Consumer demand softened after the holiday season, and recent hog prices have declined slightly compared to the New Year's Day period. Furthermore, piglet prices have rebounded sharply recently. According to Yongyi Consulting, the current price for 7kg piglets has rebounded to 307 yuan per head, partly due to the approaching peak restocking season and potentially reflecting farmers' optimism about hog prices in the second half of 2026. Considering the industry's accumulated losses, hog production capacity is expected to continue its reduction. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 0.22% month-on-month in December. Winter is a high-incidence period for hog diseases; monitor the development of subsequent outbreaks. Current sector valuations are at relatively low levels. Prioritize leading companies with cost advantages. For large-scale farming enterprises, key recommendations are Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) and Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ). Monitor Dekon Agriculture & Animal Husbandry (02419) and New Hope Liuhe (000876.SZ). For companies with potential for operational turnaround, monitor Zhengbang Technology. For small and medium-sized farming enterprises, it is advised to monitor Tiankang Animal Husbandry (002100.SZ), Shennong Group (605296.SH), Tangrenshen Group (002567.SZ), etc.
Risk Warning: Risks include fluctuations in agricultural product prices, disease outbreaks, policy changes, and food safety issues.
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