**Soybean Meal** CBOT soybeans fell for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday, pressured by long liquidation and demand concerns. The USDA confirmed the sale of 114,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination. Export sales data showed net soybean sales of 1.116 million tons for the week ending November 27, in line with expectations. Market sentiment remains bearish amid persistent worries over U.S. export pace and Brazil’s bumper crop outlook. Domestically, lower import costs weighed on soybean meal prices. Another auction of 550,000 tons of 2022–23 soybeans is scheduled today, with market focus on transaction results. Weak fundamentals, ample supply, smooth forward soybean procurement, persistent losses in livestock farming, and cautious feed ingredient purchases continue to pressure prices. High crushing volumes and elevated oilseed inventories at mills reinforce a bearish outlook. Trading strategy: Weak consolidation expected.
**Vegetable Oils** BMD palm oil closed higher on Thursday, supported by bargain-hunting and improved price competitiveness. The widening soybean-palm oil spread favors palm oil demand. Malaysia’s January palm oil export tax cut by ~$10/ton may delay some demand. Indonesia’s October palm oil stocks fell 10% MoM to 2.33 million tons despite production rising to 4.35 million tons. Canola futures extended losses for the fifth day, with the March contract nearing the cost line at CAD 600. Domestically, palm oil gained while rapeseed oil declined further. Weak overseas markets, lower import costs, ample supply, and sluggish demand pressured prices. Expectations of increased forward rapeseed supply also weighed on the market. Trading strategy: Sell call options or short-term futures participation.
**Hogs** The near-month hog contract (2603) rose initially but retreated on Thursday, erasing prior gains, while deferred contracts showed limited declines, indicating relative strength. In Heilongjiang, hog prices edged up CNY 0.07/kg to CNY 11.06/kg; Jilin rose CNY 0.08/kg to CNY 11.09/kg; Liaoning gained CNY 0.10/kg to CNY 11.24/kg; Inner Mongolia added CNY 0.10/kg to CNY 11.10/kg. Large hogs in Northeast China held firm, with prices ranging CNY 11.0–11.80/kg, narrowing the lean-fat spread. Henan’s average price dipped CNY 0.01/kg to CNY 11.82/kg, with large farms quoting CNY 11.70–12.00/kg (premiums up to CNY 12.25/kg) and small farms at CNY 11.60–11.80/kg. Heavy hogs (150–160kg) traded at CNY 12.00–12.20/kg. Technically, pre-holiday rebound expectations persist; monitor the March contract’s upside potential. Deferred contracts remain supported by disease risks and policy-driven destocking.
**Eggs** Egg futures weakened on Thursday, with the 2601 contract down 0.81% at CNY 3,067/500kg (hitting a new low intraday) and the 2603 contract falling 1.33% to CNY 29,688/500kg. Spot prices edged up CNY 0.01/kg to CNY 3.04/kg. Key producing areas: Ningjin (pink shell) at CNY 2.95/kg, Heishan (brown shell) at CNY 2.90/kg (flat). Consumption hubs: Puxi (brown shell) at CNY 3.27/kg, Guangzhou (brown shell) at CNY 3.35/kg (flat). Trade flows were normal, with most merchants maintaining stable prices. Supply-demand equilibrium keeps spot prices steady. Declining new layer placements may gradually tighten supply, but weaker feed costs and reduced culling volumes (down for two straight weeks) pressured futures. Strategy: Await opportunities; monitor breeder restocking and culling trends.
**Corn** Corn futures extended losses on Thursday, led by the near-month 2603 contract. Northeast spot prices held steady amid moderate trading activity. A 150,000-ton auction in Liaoning tomorrow may influence sentiment. North China prices were mixed: Shandong processors mostly raised offers, while Hebei and Henan saw varied adjustments. Farmers maintained steady sales, but downstream buyers resisted high prices. Southern port prices dipped slightly as traders cut offers. Weak new orders and tepid port arrivals kept market activity subdued. Technically, deferred contracts (May/July) face resistance from long-term moving averages, with supply pressure deferred.
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