Hong Kong's three major indices showed structural divergence today, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both closing higher while the Hang Seng Tech Index edged lower; optical communication, precious metals, and semiconductor sectors led declines, while internet and oil stocks gained. By the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.54% to 24,642.51 points with full-day turnover of HK$177.482 billion; the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.37% to 4,296 points.
In the Hong Kong ETF space, among products ranked by scale, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) rose 0.72% to HK$25.3; CSOP SK Hynix Daily Leveraged (2x) (07709) fell 7.32% to HK$39.52; Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) rose 0.69% to HK$84.36.
Sector Performance
A large-scale private placement by a leading company combined with overseas disruptions sent communication ETFs plunging collectively. By the close, Communication ETF Guotai (515880.SH) fell 7.66% to 0.627 yuan; Communication ETF Fullgoal (159583.SZ) dropped 7.33% to 1.556 yuan; Communication ETF ChinaAMC (515050.SH) declined 6.84% to 0.967 yuan.
Recently, optical fiber industry leader Hengtong Optic-Electric released a private placement plan to raise no more than 6.636 billion yuan, which the market interpreted as a signal of equity dilution expectations combined with capacity expansion, triggering concerns about oversupply in optical fiber and optical components; additionally, a North American data center project failed to obtain natural gas pipeline approval, resulting in insufficient power supply, and the developer issued a force majeure notice to the contractor, shaking market expectations for subsequent optical module procurement pace. Combined with concentrated profit-taking of high-level positions ahead of the National Day holiday, the communication sector suffered a heavy blow.
Huatai Securities noted that within the technology sector, priority attention could be given to optical communication, PCB, and certain domestic computing power leaders that have sufficiently digested valuations and have high earnings visibility, with related segments having seen valuations compressed by nearly 30% previously; Li Qiusuo, chief domestic strategy analyst at CICC Research Department, noted that optical communication, PCB, storage chips, and other segments still have strong certainty of high prosperity during the year, while some computing power chip companies need attention regarding the degree of matching between fundamentals and valuations.
Surging expectations for consecutive rate hikes and soaring real interest rates suppressed valuations, with gold stock ETFs declining broadly. By the close, Gold Stock ETF ChinaAMC (159562.SZ) fell 4.80% to 1.983 yuan; Gold Stock ETF ICBC (159315.SZ) dropped 4.65% to 1.498 yuan; CSOP Double Long Gold (07299) declined 5.98% to HK$21.38.
Strong U.S. economic data combined with hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials significantly raised market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October — according to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of maintaining rates unchanged at the October meeting was 35.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike reached 64.8%. The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously. During the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rose to approximately 5.2% and 5.5% respectively, hitting 22-year highs. Meanwhile, repeated U.S.-Iran negotiations pushed international oil prices higher, with Brent crude and WTI crude both rising over 1%, and recovering inflation expectations further weighed on gold prices. London spot gold broke below the $4,200/oz mark, falling over 2% intraday, while London spot silver briefly lost the $62/oz level.
Huatai Futures pointed out that short-term precious metal prices are constrained by external macroeconomic headwinds, with better-than-expected U.S. PMI data released during the week boosting market expectations for continued rate hikes within the year and U.S. Treasury yields continuing to climb; Guolian Futures believed that precious metals remain in a game between high interest rate pricing and geopolitical supply risks, and as long as U.S. Treasury yields and rate hike expectations remain strong, the weak oscillation pattern for precious metals is unlikely to see a fundamental reversal.
Institutional Views
China Galaxy Securities analysis indicated that the market needs to reprice a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, and Hong Kong stocks lack trend-following upward catalysts in the short term. Some funds previously bet on a rebound once rate hikes landed, but the overall tone of the Fed's September FOMC meeting was more hawkish than market expectations. The dot plot showed at least one more rate hike expected within the year, with Chair Warsh listing inflation as the primary contradiction and releasing a clear anti-inflation signal. This means the logic of "all bad news is priced in" has been broken, and uncertainty has not been eliminated but rather postponed to the fourth quarter.
Fullgoal Fund portfolio manager Sun Bin stated that from a medium-to-long-term perspective, dividend-type assets continue to expand, driven by a downward shift in the center of long-term capital gains returns, a rising center of dividend returns, weakened elasticity of investment returns, and expected improvement in stability. The center of government bond yields is at a relatively low position, and from a cross-asset allocation perspective, high-dividend stocks are also attractive. The Hong Kong stock market is also fertile ground for high dividends.
ETF Developments
N Non-Ferrous Metals Mining ETF Bosera (562450.SH) listed on its first day, falling 3.76% to 0.921 yuan with turnover of 11.3255 million yuan; the fund tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, covering the non-ferrous metals mining sector, mainly investing in listed companies engaged in non-ferrous metal mining and smelting.
ChiNext Growth ETF Penghua (158025.SZ) listed on its first day, falling 4.62% to 0.929 yuan with turnover of 32.6386 million yuan; the fund tracks the ChiNext Growth Index, focusing on listed companies with outstanding growth in the ChiNext market, with constituent stocks mainly from growth-oriented industries such as power equipment (new energy), pharmaceuticals and biotech, electronics, and computers.
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