China's A-share market opened with broad declines, as the three major indices started the session in negative territory. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.77%. In terms of sector performance, sodium-ion batteries, the petroleum industry chain, and coal sectors led the gains. In contrast, precious metals, photovoltaics, and commercial aerospace sectors were among the top decliners.
Looking ahead, institutional perspectives offer varied insights. GF Securities suggests that as the first-quarter earnings season enters a period of密集 disclosures, investors should focus on配置 opportunities in sectors with independent high growth this year, such as energy storage and lithium batteries. The firm emphasizes that in April, structural choices are more critical than overall market positioning. It advises continuing to invest in relatively scarce industries with strong independent growth momentum. In an environment of generally moderate broad economic demand, structurally high-growth sectors remain scarce. Therefore, allocating around high-growth themes can help阶段性 withstand disruptions from factors like "oil prices and monetary tightening." Regarding short-term sentiment in sectors like STAR Market and ChiNext, although there has been a noticeable improvement since late March, current indicators remain in neutral territory. This sentiment indicator primarily guides short-term trading timing and does not serve for medium-term judgment. Supported by the AI industry, core companies in the global supply chain are reporting better-than-expected earnings or further upward revisions to their 2026 guidance, supporting upward revisions to 2026 profit forecasts for related indices (such as U.S. stocks, South Korean stocks, and the ChiNext Index), overshadowing the impact of geopolitical conflicts. Under high profit growth rates, minor changes in discount rates have limited剧烈 impact on stock prices as future growth is discounted to the present. For配置, GF Securities continues to recommend four high-growth themes for this year: ① energy storage and lithium batteries; ② domestic AI data centers (including semiconductors); ③ overseas computing power chains; and ④ AI short dramas and comics. As the first-quarter reporting window intensifies, the firm screens for companies with earnings surprises weekly based on an "earnings surprise theory."
Oriental Securities highlights that as tensions in the Middle East continue to ease, investors should focus on manufacturing sectors with stronger mid-term certainty of benefiting from energy security, such as photovoltaic equipment, wind power, and new energy vehicles. The firm suggests that instead of frequently switching strategies in response to geopolitical fluctuations, it is better to concentrate on the safety theme with clearer medium-term benefits.
Founder Securities points out that the "minefield" of the earnings season has emerged, advising attention to technology sectors represented by commercial aerospace and high-dividend-yield segments. The firm expects the market in late April to likely exhibit a pattern of "sideways index movement with significant stock differentiation." While major indices may see limited large fluctuations, differentiation among individual stocks and sectors will be extremely pronounced, making stock selection far more important than market timing. For short-term strategies, it recommends reducing position sizes. Investors can diversify into defensive sectors with strong earnings certainty, such as utilities, coal, and power, while avoiding high-flying thematic stocks lacking fundamental support to guard against both earnings disappointments and price corrections from elevated levels. In the short term, a wait-and-see approach may be prudent, allowing for gradual portfolio adjustments after first-quarter results are fully disclosed and market direction becomes clearer.
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