According to Cui Dongshu's analysis, based on compulsory insurance data from the National Financial Regulatory Administration, domestic commercial vehicle compulsory insurance data shows strong growth for commercial vehicles in 2025. Driven by robust new energy vehicle growth and policies promoting vehicle renewals, commercial vehicle domestic sales reached 246,000 units in August, up 14% year-on-year and down 1% month-on-month. From January to August 2025, domestic commercial vehicle sales totaled 2.01 million units, representing an 8% year-on-year increase. Compared to the stable period for commercial vehicles since 2022, this year has achieved a good level that represents a new high in recent years.
New energy commercial vehicle sales reached 579,000 units in 2024, up 84% year-on-year. In August 2025, sales reached 73,600 units, up 46% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month. After the policy tail-end effect at the end of 2024, new energy performance was relatively weak in January 2025, but surged year-on-year from February to August, with cumulative sales reaching 500,000 units from January to August, up 55% year-on-year.
From 2019-2021, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles was around 3%. It reached 9% in 2022, 11% in 2023, 20% for the full year 2024, and achieved a good level of 25% penetration rate in the first eight months of 2025, demonstrating the strong growth momentum of new energy commercial vehicles.
In August 2025, the new energy penetration rate for commercial vehicles reached 30%, with trucks achieving a 23% new energy penetration rate and buses reaching 63%, both showing significant improvements compared to the same period last year.
The domestic market for new energy commercial vehicles has performed relatively strongly under policy support, while fuel vehicle exports remain robust, creating a distinctive market structure under policy distortions. Traditional fuel vehicles require effective policy support.
**1. National Commercial Vehicle Market Compulsory Insurance Data Analysis**
The 2025 commercial vehicle market shows characteristics of sustained strength from February to August due to the earlier Spring Festival in January. Commercial vehicle monthly data declined significantly month-on-month in January this year. February commercial vehicle sales of 237,000 units represented a median level historically. Commercial vehicle sales in March-April were relatively stable, while May-August showed stronger trends driven by new energy vehicles, continuously reaching recent historical highs for respective months.
The domestic commercial vehicle market has shown a trend of rapidly declining demand in recent years. From the ultra-high sales in 2020 to the peak decline in 2021, it was in a trough period during 2022-2023. In 2024, domestic commercial vehicle insurance reached 2.85 million units, remaining almost flat year-on-year.
**2. National New Energy Commercial Vehicle Market Sales Analysis**
New energy commercial vehicles in 2025 overall show a good situation of rapid improvement. March to August maintained high levels with strong new energy growth. New energy sales in August 2025 quickly reached the high level of 73,600 units, indicating strong demand for new energy vehicles.
**3. New Energy Commercial Vehicle Penetration Rate**
The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles reached 20% in 2024, achieving good improvement compared to 2023. The new energy penetration rate reached 30% in August 2025, compared to 23% in August last year, an increase of 7 percentage points, showing relatively strong performance.
The penetration rate increased 7 percentage points year-on-year in August and from January to August, stronger than passenger vehicle growth.
**4. Commercial Vehicle Market Change Analysis**
The structure of trucks and buses in commercial vehicles remains relatively stable. Among trucks, heavy and light trucks performed well. Heavy and medium trucks showed structural improvement this year after deep adjustment last year, with scrapping and renewal policies showing some pulling effect. Among buses, light buses showed strong trends, with electrification leading light buses to replace mini buses as market leaders.
Large and medium buses showed weak performance in early 2025. Fuel-powered large and medium buses maintained stable trends, while new energy large and medium buses showed average performance. Truck new energy penetration rate reached 23%, while bus new energy penetration rate reached 63%, both showing significant improvements compared to the same period.
**5. Commercial Vehicle Competition Structure Change Analysis**
Commercial vehicle companies are mainly supported by light truck companies. BAIC Foton and SAIC-GM-Wuling are the main forces in commercial vehicles, with strong sales in light truck and bus markets respectively. Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.,Ltd. is also strong in both heavy and light trucks.
**6. Heavy and Medium Truck Regional Market Structure**
Heavy and medium trucks generally have higher market share in North China and other regions, but South China and Southwest have continued to strengthen in recent two years. New energy heavy trucks show good penetration rates in Beijing-Tianjin-Shanghai, South China, Central Yellow River, and Southwest regions, with Beijing-Tianjin-Shanghai showing rapid penetration rate improvement.
In the domestic heavy truck market, the best-performing companies should be Faw Jiefang Group Co.,Ltd. (000800.SZ), Dongfeng Automobile Co.,Ltd. (600006.SH), Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.,Ltd. (000951.SZ), and other enterprises. Heavy trucks overall showed relatively stable performance, with some second-tier heavy truck companies like XCMG improving electric vehicle penetration rates.
**7. Light Truck Regional Market Structure**
The light truck market mainly has higher shares in Eastern-North China and South China, Southwest regions, with South China and Southwest regions' light truck performance gradually strengthening. New energy light trucks mainly show relatively strong performance in Eastern-South China and East China markets.
Domestic light truck main manufacturers remain BAIC Foton, SAIC-GM-Wuling, JAC Motors, Sinotruk, Dongfeng Motors and other enterprises. Especially recently, Wuling's small micro trucks gradually moving up to small light truck market showed relatively excellent performance.
The main enterprise for new energy light trucks is GEELY AUTO (00175), with Chery Motors showing relatively excellent performance in new energy light trucks in recent two years.
**8. Light Bus Regional Market Structure**
The domestic light bus market sales regions are mainly the economically developed East China and South China regions. The Central Yangtze River region also has a high share this year. New energy light buses mainly have large demand in developed regions, with South China showing strong new energy performance.
Constrained by road right policies, fuel light bus sales in cities like Beijing-Tianjin-Shanghai have shown contraction. Main light bus manufacturers are mainly Jiangling Motors, SAIC Maxus, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Changan Automobile, Geely Commercial Vehicles and other enterprises, with emerging forces like Geely Commercial Vehicles showing strong new energy light bus performance.
**9. Large and Medium Bus Regional Market Structure**
The large and medium bus market has shown strong performance recently, with large fluctuations in market demand between regions. Policy subsidies and market promotion create differentiation between new energy policy promotion and fuel vehicle market demand for large and medium buses.
New energy large and medium bus markets with higher penetration rates are mainly in southern regions, while other regions depend on policy subsidies. Northeast and North China public transportation started earlier this year.
Main manufacturers for large and medium buses are still Yutong, Xiamen Golden Dragon, Suzhou Golden Dragon and other enterprises showing relatively excellent performance, especially Yutong and Golden Dragon, Zhongtong's traditional fuel vehicles showing strong performance. BAIC Foton and other enterprises also performed relatively well.
Companies with high new energy large and medium bus penetration rates are mainly second-tier enterprises, while main enterprises are comprehensively developing both fuel and new energy vehicles, with main enterprises having good fuel vehicle markets.
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