U.S. markets remained focused on Tuesday’s July inflation data, as investors track growing price pressures from tariffs into next month’s crucial Federal Reserve rate decision in Washington.
But the larger influence on an array of assets is coming from President Donald Trump’s White House, which has inserted itself into the day-to-day movements of capital markets in a way that has grown impossible to ignore.
That influence has intensified since he returned to office in January, starting with his focus on tariffs and spreading into debt and currency markets, corporate leadership and commodities prices.
And heading into the autumn months, investors are likely to find his grip on those markets tightening.
Stocks are already firmly in that grasp, having fallen nearly 20% in the wake of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff unveiling in early April and rebounding nearly 30% after he paused and reduced those so-called reciprocal levies a few days later.
“We are all ready to move on from tariff talk, but it can’t be dropped just yet,” said Jeffery Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. “The ‘guess the final tariff rate’ game so many are playing is still interesting.”
Tech giants from Nvidia and Apple to AMD and Intel have all been influenced by his recent deal and decision-making. A deal to entice Apple to spend more domestically has protected it from tariffs, whilea tithe of 15% on revenue from some high-end chip saleshas allowed Nvidia and AMD access to markets in China.
“Surely similar deals will follow, but at the end of the day, these are another mechanism to thwart U.S. companies…by the U.S.,” said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial. “Confusing, isn’t it?”
The same could be said for the domestic auto sector, which has found itself holding the short end of the global tariff stick following trade agreements with the U.K., Europe and Japan that effectively make it cheaper to build cars outside of North America and sell them in the U.S.
Away from stocks, the president’s influence in other assets is also clearly apparent.
Bitcoin prices are surging this year, and printed a fresh record high last month, thanks in part to crypto-friendly policies such as the Genius Act, which legitimized fiat-backed stablecoins, and planned changes in retirement savings programs suggested by the White House.
Gold markets, which were matching bitcoin stride for stride this year in terms of percentage gains, were thrown into turmoil last week amid confusion over import tariffs. Recent statements from the president promising no levies on bullion haven’t yet calmed trading in the $5 trillion bullion market.
Global oil price movements have also been tied to both the president’s desire to boost domestic production and his influence on OPEC leader Saudi Arabia.
Trump’s effort to convince Russia President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine will also dictate whether countries buying Russian crude will face secondary tariff pressures.
Louis Navellier of Navellier Calculated Investing thinks Trump’s tactics have likely lured Putin to the negotiating table.
“Using tariffs to conduct foreign policy is apparently having an impact,” he said.
The president’s influence on markets is perhaps no more evident than in currency trading, where the U.S. dollar has fallen more than 9.1% so far this year and suffered its worst first half performance in four decades.
Trump’s relentless attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, his push for a spending bill that adds trillions to the nation’s teetering debt pile, and tariff policies that have stoked stagflation concerns have all been tied to the dollar’s demise.
He has also, of course, fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and replaced an outgoing hawk on the Fed’s rate setting board with an administration loyalist, Stephen Miran, author of the dollar-devaluating Mar-a-Lago Accord.
Trump doesn’t shy away from talking about his influence on markets. In an Aug. 8 post on Truth Social, the president characterized his policies as “the largest amount of money, wealth creation and influence the U.S. has even seen.”
“Tariffs are having a huge positive impact on the stock market. Almost every day, new records are being set,” Trump wrote. “In addition, hundreds of billions of dollars are pouring into out country’s coffers.”
Does this unprecedented scale of presidential influence threaten the integrity of U.S. markets, even as it clearly dictates their near-term performance?
Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, isn’t entirely convinced.
“Yes, the president has launched an assault on free trade, threatened central bank independence, targeted universities and now appears to be compromising the integrity of economic data,” he said in a recent note.
“Yet for all this, the U.S. still possesses enviable strengths: a deep capital market, a world-beating technology sector, an entrepreneurial culture, and an open (if sometimes strained) legal system,” he added. “These aren’t easily undone.”
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