While the Nasdaq 100 has gained roughly 18% in 2026, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi believe the index will not see significant further gains in the second half of the year.
Speculators assign approximately a 50% probability that the tech-heavy index will close above the 30,000 level by the end of 2026, a threshold it first surpassed in late May. As of Tuesday's midday trading, the index was trading only about 1% below 30,000.
On Kalshi, these contracts require speculators to trade "Yes" or "No" on whether the Nasdaq 100 will close within a specific price range at year-end. The contracts will settle based on the index's price on December 31st as provided by Google Finance.
The Nasdaq 100's strong performance in 2026 followed a low point for U.S. stocks on March 30th, attributed to the Iran war. From that point until June 2nd, the index surged more than 33%, fueled by renewed confidence in the AI trade.
Fading Momentum
However, traders now appear to believe the bull run is running out of steam.
Another contract indicates a 40% probability that the Nasdaq 100 will close its 2026 high above 32,000. So far this year, the index's intraday high was 30,762, reached on June 3rd.
Traders see only about a 27% chance of the Nasdaq 100 climbing above 33,000 before the year concludes.
In a report issued Tuesday, UBS stated it expects the broader market rally to continue into the second half of 2026, but technology stocks may no longer be the primary leaders. This could pressure the tech-centric Nasdaq 100, which just added SpaceX as its latest component on Tuesday.
"With semiconductor stocks posting strong gains in the second quarter, investors looking ahead to the next phase of the AI trade are increasingly looking beyond tech," wrote Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Chief Investment Officer for the Americas at UBS. "While we remain confident in the growth prospects for AI... we also highlight that the next leg up in equities will likely be characterized by a broadening of market leadership."
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