Oil prices have steadied near their pre-war lows as traders moved to cover some of their bearish bets ahead of the US holiday weekend.
The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2%, closing below $69 a barrel. This stabilization occurred despite a key indicator flashing a sign of oversupply for the first time since November, alongside a surge in oil shipments transiting the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures also edged higher for the day, settling below $72 per barrel.
Data indicates that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz surged to 14 million barrels on July 1st. In addition to this, oil shipments rerouted via Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast and the UAE's port of Fujairah contribute a combined volume of approximately 6.2 million barrels per day.
While single-day flow figures provide only a very limited snapshot, they still illustrate the rapid pace at which supply from Persian Gulf producers is rebounding. In February, combined exports via Yanbu, Fujairah, and the Strait of Hormuz were around 18 million barrels per day.
The consequence of this export recovery is a significant influx of oil into the market, arriving while many wartime supply workarounds remain in effect.
"A wave of oil is coming to the market," stated Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research at JPMorgan. "The paradox is here. A surge in oil supply is about to hit a market that, at least for now, simply doesn't need it."
WTI crude for August delivery increased by 0.2%, settling at $68.69 per barrel.
Brent crude for September delivery rose by 0.3%, closing at $71.80 per barrel.
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