Domestic refined oil product prices are scheduled for a reduction tonight, with savings of approximately 20 yuan for filling a standard tank.
The National Development and Reform Commission announced today that, in response to changes in international oil market prices, the prices for domestic gasoline and diesel (standard products) will be lowered by 525 yuan and 505 yuan per ton respectively, effective from 24:00 on June 4th.
When converted to a per-liter basis, the prices for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-grade diesel will decrease by 0.41 yuan, 0.44 yuan, and 0.43 yuan per liter respectively.
For vehicle owners, this means a saving of around 20 yuan when filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline. Fuel costs for the logistics industry will also see a notable reduction. For instance, a heavy-duty truck traveling 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers will see its fuel costs drop by about 763 yuan over the next half-month.
This adjustment marks the eleventh price change in 2026 and the second price cut of the year. Following this adjustment, the pattern for refined oil price adjustments in 2026 will stand at "eight increases, two decreases, and one hold."
Analysis suggests that during the current pricing cycle (from 24:00 on May 21, 2026, to 24:00 on June 4, 2026), progress in U.S.-Iran talks was positive, nearing a peace agreement at one point, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices after a period of high volatility. Although the situation saw some fluctuations later, renewing market concerns and causing a rebound in crude prices, the overall average international crude price for the cycle decreased compared to the previous period, with the rate of change remaining in negative territory.
Today, international oil prices experienced volatile declines. At the time of writing, WTI crude was trading at $96.718 per barrel, down 1.21%, while Brent crude was at $96.02 per barrel, down 1.3%.
Looking Ahead
Looking forward, one view posits that while the U.S. has indicated a potential agreement with Iran, military pressure from both sides continues, including strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island and the interception of tankers bound for Iran, with Iran retaliating against U.S. military bases. Concurrently, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, and global inventories are depleting at an accelerated pace. Driven by both geopolitical factors and fundamentals, crude oil volatility has increased significantly, and prices are expected to exhibit wide fluctuations.
Another analysis indicates that although there are low-intensity military frictions between the U.S. and Iran, the probability of a full-scale reignition of conflict is low. The U.S. is expected to potentially reach a peace agreement by the end of June, and the market holds positive expectations for the U.S.-Iran talks, suggesting a potential turning point in geopolitical tensions. Overall, the probability of a reduction in the next round of refined oil product price adjustments is considered relatively high.
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