Crude oil prices continued to decline, showing some recovery from the previous day's drop during the session but retreating nearly 2% from intraday highs overnight as U.S. stocks plummeted, ultimately closing lower amid cooling market sentiment.
Following Wednesday's surprise news about secret U.S.-Russia talks to end the Ukraine conflict, market participants remain cautious about the feasibility of the reported 28-point peace plan, with many details still unclear. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reportedly received a U.S. draft peace proposal and is set to discuss it with former President Donald Trump. Since there was no strong opposition to the plan, it could potentially break the long-stalled diplomatic deadlock. Zelensky reiterated Ukraine's willingness to work constructively with the U.S., Europe, and global partners to advance peace efforts.
Separately, unverified reports emerged on Thursday that China has begun issuing early 2026 crude oil import quotas for non-state refiners, providing some support to market sentiment.
The U.S. released September nonfarm payroll data, showing a surge of 119,000 jobs—far exceeding economists' expectations of 50,000—while the prior figure was revised down to a loss of 4,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, higher than the forecasted 4.3%. These mixed signals complicate the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates next month.
Late-night volatility intensified as U.S. stocks plunged again, triggering financial market concerns and further cooling risk appetite. Commodities such as crude oil and copper followed the downward trend. Despite the drop in oil prices, the futures spread did not weaken in tandem, indicating persistent supply-side disruptions from sanctions and geopolitical tensions. While recent uncertainties have led to erratic price movements, the broader trend remains a gradual decline, with continued oscillations expected. Traders are advised to focus on short-selling opportunities after rallies while carefully managing timing.
**Daily Market Data** - WTI crude futures fell $0.25 (-0.42%) to $59/barrel. - Brent crude futures dropped $0.13 (-0.2%) to $63.38/barrel. - INE crude futures declined 0.73% to 451.7 yuan. - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 100.22. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was flat at 112.64. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.84% to 45,752.26.
**Key Updates** 1. **TotalEnergies and Chevron Vie for Namibia’s Mega Oilfield (Estimated 10B Barrels)** TotalEnergies and Chevron are frontrunners in bidding for Galp Energia’s 40% operating stake in Namibia’s Mopane field, sources say. Namibia, yet to produce oil, could rank among the world’s top 15 oil producers within a decade. Mopane holds at least 10B barrels, with Galp expected to announce the winner by year-end.
2. **EIA: Alaska’s 2026 Oil Output to Rise 13%** The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts Alaska’s crude production to hit 477,000 bpd in 2026—a 13% jump (55,000 bpd) and the highest since 2018, driven by ConocoPhillips’ Nuna project (operational since Dec 2024) and Santos-Repsol’s Pikka Phase 1 (launching early 2026, targeting 80,000 bpd mid-term). The Trump administration recently reversed Biden-era drilling restrictions in the region.
3. **Zelensky Receives U.S. Peace Draft, Plans Call with Trump** Ukraine’s presidential office confirmed Zelensky received the U.S. proposal, seen as a potential breakthrough. Zelensky stressed Ukraine’s commitment to peace and collaboration with international partners. A call with Trump is expected soon to discuss diplomatic pathways.
*The New York Times* cited U.S. sources stating the Trump administration weighed extreme measures against Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, including capture or infrastructure seizure.
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