Protein Meals: On Monday, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed. Rising crude oil prices supported U.S. soybean oil futures, while U.S. soybean meal prices declined. Uncertain prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations pushed crude oil prices higher again, boosting soybean oil. The post-market crop progress report indicated that U.S. soybean planting reached 12%, significantly higher than the same period last year. Planting progress is very rapid, although rainfall this week may slow spring fieldwork. U.S. soybean export inspections were 749,000 metric tons, at the high end of market expectations. Domestically, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures traded within a narrow range. Import costs showed little change. Rising live hog prices have improved breeding profits, increasing farmers' enthusiasm for feed use. Soybean meal feed consumption remains high, but inventories are also elevated. With both supply and demand strong and costs stable, soybean meal is expected to trade with a firm bias. Short-term long positions are recommended.
Oils and Fats: On Monday, BMD palm oil futures rose. U.S. soybean oil and Canadian canola futures also closed higher, tracking gains in crude oil. U.S. biodiesel policies are improving the demand outlook for U.S. soybean oil and Canadian canola, while stronger crude oil prices provided significant support. High-frequency data showed Malaysian palm oil exports for April 1-20 decreased by approximately 25% month-on-month, though the decline narrowed compared to the 1-15 period. Slow thawing and gradual drying in Western Canada, coupled with a late spring, has delayed canola planting, though this has no immediate impact on yield estimates yet. Domestically, the three major plant oils traded mixed. Crude oil prices experienced significant volatility as markets awaited the final outcome of secondary negotiations scheduled for the 22nd. Domestic oil inventories are ample, with end-users purchasing cautiously, leading to slow inventory drawdowns. Strategically, going long on meal and short on oil, as well as betting on a narrowing spread between soybean meal/rapeseed meal and soybean oil/palm oil, is suggested.
Live Hogs: On Monday, near-month live hog futures led gains, with deferred contracts following higher. The main 2607 contract saw increased open interest and moved higher during the session, reaching significantly elevated levels before facing pressure and retreating by the close, finishing the day with a doji candlestick. Over the weekend, spot hog prices continued to strengthen. Prices rose across both northern and southern regions nationwide. Firming prices from producers in the north, supported by market sentiment, led the gains. Some southern regions followed the upward trend. This morning, the average price in Henan was 10.2 yuan/kg, nearly 1 yuan/kg higher than on April 16. After two months of bottom consolidation, hog market prices began a rapid ascent starting April 15. Market expectations instantly turned bullish, with sentiment reaching a peak. Reduced slaughter volumes from large-scale enterprises supported the price increase. This rally is primarily attributed to large producers actively reducing their sales volume. Following deep industry losses, many accelerated the pace of sales in the first half of the month, achieving decent monthly sales progress. Combined with market sentiment, this created strong short-term support. Additionally, increased enthusiasm for secondary finishing and frozen product stockpiling added阶段性 demand, further aiding the price rise. Overall, hog market prices surged sharply, with the main futures contract closing higher for five consecutive trading days. Futures led the spot market higher. After spot prices caught up, the premium of the July contract over spot prices has improved, narrowing from 1,825 yuan/ton to 1,240 yuan/ton. Sentiment and expectations in both the futures and spot markets are gradually strengthening. Hog futures are experiencing a阶段性 rebound after a prolonged period of bottom consolidation. In the short term, prices are being guided by capital flows and sentiment, showing a firm bias.
Eggs: On Monday, egg futures corrected lower. The main 2606 contract fell 1.64% to close at 3,306 yuan/500 kilograms. Deferred contract fluctuations were smaller than those in near-month contracts. In the spot market, data from SCI99 showed the national average egg price was 4.00 yuan/jin yesterday, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. In production areas, Ningjin pink shell eggs were at 4.00 yuan/jin, while Heishan brown shell eggs held steady at 3.80 yuan/jin. In consumption areas, brown shell eggs in Puxi were at 4.22 yuan/jin, and Guangzhou brown shell eggs were at 4.10 yuan/jin, both unchanged. As spot egg prices rebounded, prices in consumption areas have stabilized. Traders are purchasing based on demand, with arrivals at销区 markets increasing compared to the previous day. As the broadly sufficient supply situation has not fundamentally changed, egg prices corrected yesterday after last week's rebound. Until supply-side improvements are seen, eggs are expected to remain range-bound. Monitor the impact of new layer placements and culling changes on production capacity. In futures, watch capital flows and movements in related commodities.
Corn: On Monday, the main corn 2607 contract saw increased open interest and moved higher. Following upward adjustments in weekend spot corn quotes, the main futures contract ended its recent consolidation phase and resumed an upward trend. Last week, corn prices in Northeast China were largely stable. Market trading activity was moderate, with traders reluctant to sell at lower prices. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was relatively slow. Deep processors have adequate inventories and are purchasing dry grain based on market conditions. Feed companies are facing losses and are currently seeking more alternatives or maintaining minimal positions, leading to generally moderate market activity. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Over the weekend, corn prices in North China stabilized with some increases. After the previous period of weaker prices, traders reduced sales volumes and controlled their selling pace, leading to a decrease in effective market supply. Some deep processors raised their purchase prices marginally, while mainstream prices held steady. In the short term, market supply and demand are in relative balance, with companies making minor price adjustments based on their individual situations. Overall, short-term market activity remains subdued. However, with traders in production areas generally unwilling to sell at low prices and controlling their sales节奏, prices are expected to trade sideways in the near term.
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