Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade

Bloomberg2021-06-23

(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic. This slammed the brakes ...

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Comments

Ravic
2021-06-23
Ravic
Bump
Luislo
2021-06-23
Luislo
Fed being as crucial as ever!
Orez13
2021-06-23
Orez13
Subjectives
kevinlaisq
2021-06-23
kevinlaisq
Please comment and like
- JohnWL:
  Ok
paxxie
2021-06-23
paxxie
like and comment
- kevinlaisq:
  pls response backk
EY12
2021-06-23
EY12
Like
- EY12:
  hi

Leave a comment

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 09:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html","article_id":"1126572310","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"lsy1612507957220","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126572310","pubTimestamp":1624412273,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1612507957220","name":"finance.yahoo"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"yahoo.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"美联储政策转向被认为是一个冲击，而不是通货再膨胀贸易的死胡同","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes on the reflation trade -- bets on stocks that benefit from faster economic growth -- which had been humming along since November’s breakthrough vaccine announcements.\nNow that traders have been able to take a few deep breaths and markets have regained their footing, strategists including Natixis Investment Managers and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say that it’s time to reload reflation trades. If anything, the latest wobbles actually strengthened their conviction.\nThe selloff was “bewildering” and a downright overreaction given the long runway until the first potential rate hike in 2023 and the unreliability of dot plots as a predictor, said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and strategist at Natixis, which has more than $1 trillion under management.\n“This caused a nice quick flush out of some weak hands riding the reflation trade and likely reset positioning to a better place,” he said in an email. “As for the reflation trade, it remains intact. We still find many of the inflation-related worries as transitory which makes us give a more nuanced definition to our outlook: reflation, but not inflation.”\nNatixis is sticking with cyclical positions and expects those trades to continue to work, with energy remaining a favorite, Janasiewicz added.\nJPMorgan also sees buying opportunities after reflation trades suffered a “technically driven pullback,” strategists including Marko Kolanovic and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Monday.\n“We expect the trade to resume and see this move as an opportunity to add exposure to cyclical equities and commodities,” they said. “Inflation is likely to continue to realize above both the Fed’s and markets’ expectations, driving bond yields higher and value outperformance.”\nEmerging markets are also poised for further outperformance over developed peers, with JPMorgan raising its year-end target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to 1,550 from 1,450, implying about a 15% upside from current levels. The S&P 500, which fell for four straight sessions last week, has since rebounded to return to the same level as it was the day before the Fed announcement last Wednesday.\nStill, the whipsawing market reactions to the Fed have spurred debate among investors over what to do if reflation trades falter.\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann see a greater focus on short-term rates sensitivity than in the past. Markets are looking to labor and inflation data for clues, as rapid improvements there might bring earlier Fed tightening, according to a note Monday.\n“Coupled with slowing growth momentum, this might continue to weigh on risk appetite in the near term, although the repricing across reflationary assets has already been large,” they said.\nThe 2004 Model\nThe best yardstick for measuring out a path from here could be found by looking at the market’s performance in 2004, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets. 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That means 2004 saw similar valuations in global equities, credit spreads and even volatility as those apparent today, Sheets noted in a report Sunday.\n“In short, 2004 represents a more mid-cycle market after a strong, early-cycle rally,” he said. “It saw similar valuations, and what happened next is similar to some key Morgan Stanley forecasts: a pause in equities within an ongoing bull market, lower default rates but slightly wider spreads, modest dollar strength and more mixed equity leadership.”\nWhile there are some key differences -- 2004 was a U.S. election year, there was no quantitative easing and China and emerging-market dynamics were vastly different -- one key lesson to take away is how quickly the Fed moved from preaching patience at the start of the year to hiking rates by June, pushing target rates up 425 basis points over the next two years.\n“History always seems more orderly in hindsight,” he said. “Things can change.”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":123647972,"gmtCreate":1624422674296,"gmtModify":1703836210783,"author":{"id":"3554954813778698","authorId":"3554954813778698","name":"Ravic","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3554954813778698","idStr":"3554954813778698"},"htmlText":"Bump","listText":"Bump","text":"Bump","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123647972","repostId":1126572310,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126572310","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624412273,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126572310?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126572310","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin","content":"<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 09:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126572310","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes on the reflation trade -- bets on stocks that benefit from faster economic growth -- which had been humming along since November’s breakthrough vaccine announcements.\nNow that traders have been able to take a few deep breaths and markets have regained their footing, strategists including Natixis Investment Managers and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say that it’s time to reload reflation trades. If anything, the latest wobbles actually strengthened their conviction.\nThe selloff was “bewildering” and a downright overreaction given the long runway until the first potential rate hike in 2023 and the unreliability of dot plots as a predictor, said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and strategist at Natixis, which has more than $1 trillion under management.\n“This caused a nice quick flush out of some weak hands riding the reflation trade and likely reset positioning to a better place,” he said in an email. “As for the reflation trade, it remains intact. We still find many of the inflation-related worries as transitory which makes us give a more nuanced definition to our outlook: reflation, but not inflation.”\nNatixis is sticking with cyclical positions and expects those trades to continue to work, with energy remaining a favorite, Janasiewicz added.\nJPMorgan also sees buying opportunities after reflation trades suffered a “technically driven pullback,” strategists including Marko Kolanovic and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Monday.\n“We expect the trade to resume and see this move as an opportunity to add exposure to cyclical equities and commodities,” they said. “Inflation is likely to continue to realize above both the Fed’s and markets’ expectations, driving bond yields higher and value outperformance.”\nEmerging markets are also poised for further outperformance over developed peers, with JPMorgan raising its year-end target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to 1,550 from 1,450, implying about a 15% upside from current levels. The S&P 500, which fell for four straight sessions last week, has since rebounded to return to the same level as it was the day before the Fed announcement last Wednesday.\nStill, the whipsawing market reactions to the Fed have spurred debate among investors over what to do if reflation trades falter.\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann see a greater focus on short-term rates sensitivity than in the past. Markets are looking to labor and inflation data for clues, as rapid improvements there might bring earlier Fed tightening, according to a note Monday.\n“Coupled with slowing growth momentum, this might continue to weigh on risk appetite in the near term, although the repricing across reflationary assets has already been large,” they said.\nThe 2004 Model\nThe best yardstick for measuring out a path from here could be found by looking at the market’s performance in 2004, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets. It offers the closest comparison to the current mix of a booming post-pandemic recovery, fiscal easing, high savings, low rates, higher inflation and tighter labor markets.\nAt that time, an extended malaise following the 2001 U.S. recession only troughed in 2003, followed by a surge in equity and credit markets as confidence returned. That means 2004 saw similar valuations in global equities, credit spreads and even volatility as those apparent today, Sheets noted in a report Sunday.\n“In short, 2004 represents a more mid-cycle market after a strong, early-cycle rally,” he said. “It saw similar valuations, and what happened next is similar to some key Morgan Stanley forecasts: a pause in equities within an ongoing bull market, lower default rates but slightly wider spreads, modest dollar strength and more mixed equity leadership.”\nWhile there are some key differences -- 2004 was a U.S. election year, there was no quantitative easing and China and emerging-market dynamics were vastly different -- one key lesson to take away is how quickly the Fed moved from preaching patience at the start of the year to hiking rates by June, pushing target rates up 425 basis points over the next two years.\n“History always seems more orderly in hindsight,” he said. “Things can change.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":123817128,"gmtCreate":1624415541964,"gmtModify":1703835997221,"author":{"id":"3561691053129238","authorId":"3561691053129238","name":"Luislo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba084f04bf3abf3da88810a6c2294ed6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3561691053129238","idStr":"3561691053129238"},"htmlText":"Fed being as crucial as ever!","listText":"Fed being as crucial as ever!","text":"Fed being as crucial as ever!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123817128","repostId":1126572310,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126572310","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624412273,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126572310?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126572310","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin","content":"<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 09:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126572310","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes on the reflation trade -- bets on stocks that benefit from faster economic growth -- which had been humming along since November’s breakthrough vaccine announcements.\nNow that traders have been able to take a few deep breaths and markets have regained their footing, strategists including Natixis Investment Managers and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say that it’s time to reload reflation trades. If anything, the latest wobbles actually strengthened their conviction.\nThe selloff was “bewildering” and a downright overreaction given the long runway until the first potential rate hike in 2023 and the unreliability of dot plots as a predictor, said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and strategist at Natixis, which has more than $1 trillion under management.\n“This caused a nice quick flush out of some weak hands riding the reflation trade and likely reset positioning to a better place,” he said in an email. “As for the reflation trade, it remains intact. We still find many of the inflation-related worries as transitory which makes us give a more nuanced definition to our outlook: reflation, but not inflation.”\nNatixis is sticking with cyclical positions and expects those trades to continue to work, with energy remaining a favorite, Janasiewicz added.\nJPMorgan also sees buying opportunities after reflation trades suffered a “technically driven pullback,” strategists including Marko Kolanovic and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Monday.\n“We expect the trade to resume and see this move as an opportunity to add exposure to cyclical equities and commodities,” they said. “Inflation is likely to continue to realize above both the Fed’s and markets’ expectations, driving bond yields higher and value outperformance.”\nEmerging markets are also poised for further outperformance over developed peers, with JPMorgan raising its year-end target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to 1,550 from 1,450, implying about a 15% upside from current levels. The S&P 500, which fell for four straight sessions last week, has since rebounded to return to the same level as it was the day before the Fed announcement last Wednesday.\nStill, the whipsawing market reactions to the Fed have spurred debate among investors over what to do if reflation trades falter.\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann see a greater focus on short-term rates sensitivity than in the past. Markets are looking to labor and inflation data for clues, as rapid improvements there might bring earlier Fed tightening, according to a note Monday.\n“Coupled with slowing growth momentum, this might continue to weigh on risk appetite in the near term, although the repricing across reflationary assets has already been large,” they said.\nThe 2004 Model\nThe best yardstick for measuring out a path from here could be found by looking at the market’s performance in 2004, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets. It offers the closest comparison to the current mix of a booming post-pandemic recovery, fiscal easing, high savings, low rates, higher inflation and tighter labor markets.\nAt that time, an extended malaise following the 2001 U.S. recession only troughed in 2003, followed by a surge in equity and credit markets as confidence returned. That means 2004 saw similar valuations in global equities, credit spreads and even volatility as those apparent today, Sheets noted in a report Sunday.\n“In short, 2004 represents a more mid-cycle market after a strong, early-cycle rally,” he said. “It saw similar valuations, and what happened next is similar to some key Morgan Stanley forecasts: a pause in equities within an ongoing bull market, lower default rates but slightly wider spreads, modest dollar strength and more mixed equity leadership.”\nWhile there are some key differences -- 2004 was a U.S. election year, there was no quantitative easing and China and emerging-market dynamics were vastly different -- one key lesson to take away is how quickly the Fed moved from preaching patience at the start of the year to hiking rates by June, pushing target rates up 425 basis points over the next two years.\n“History always seems more orderly in hindsight,” he said. “Things can change.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":123814199,"gmtCreate":1624415520111,"gmtModify":1703835995736,"author":{"id":"3587042209039901","authorId":"3587042209039901","name":"Orez13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1ebf9ecffe0d0f5783daf8a548e87b","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b75ce0c34afff716602792a5d0929dd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}],"authorIdStr":"3587042209039901","idStr":"3587042209039901"},"htmlText":"Subjectives","listText":"Subjectives","text":"Subjectives","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123814199","repostId":1126572310,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126572310","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624412273,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126572310?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126572310","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin","content":"<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 09:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126572310","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes on the reflation trade -- bets on stocks that benefit from faster economic growth -- which had been humming along since November’s breakthrough vaccine announcements.\nNow that traders have been able to take a few deep breaths and markets have regained their footing, strategists including Natixis Investment Managers and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say that it’s time to reload reflation trades. If anything, the latest wobbles actually strengthened their conviction.\nThe selloff was “bewildering” and a downright overreaction given the long runway until the first potential rate hike in 2023 and the unreliability of dot plots as a predictor, said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and strategist at Natixis, which has more than $1 trillion under management.\n“This caused a nice quick flush out of some weak hands riding the reflation trade and likely reset positioning to a better place,” he said in an email. “As for the reflation trade, it remains intact. We still find many of the inflation-related worries as transitory which makes us give a more nuanced definition to our outlook: reflation, but not inflation.”\nNatixis is sticking with cyclical positions and expects those trades to continue to work, with energy remaining a favorite, Janasiewicz added.\nJPMorgan also sees buying opportunities after reflation trades suffered a “technically driven pullback,” strategists including Marko Kolanovic and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Monday.\n“We expect the trade to resume and see this move as an opportunity to add exposure to cyclical equities and commodities,” they said. “Inflation is likely to continue to realize above both the Fed’s and markets’ expectations, driving bond yields higher and value outperformance.”\nEmerging markets are also poised for further outperformance over developed peers, with JPMorgan raising its year-end target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to 1,550 from 1,450, implying about a 15% upside from current levels. The S&P 500, which fell for four straight sessions last week, has since rebounded to return to the same level as it was the day before the Fed announcement last Wednesday.\nStill, the whipsawing market reactions to the Fed have spurred debate among investors over what to do if reflation trades falter.\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann see a greater focus on short-term rates sensitivity than in the past. Markets are looking to labor and inflation data for clues, as rapid improvements there might bring earlier Fed tightening, according to a note Monday.\n“Coupled with slowing growth momentum, this might continue to weigh on risk appetite in the near term, although the repricing across reflationary assets has already been large,” they said.\nThe 2004 Model\nThe best yardstick for measuring out a path from here could be found by looking at the market’s performance in 2004, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets. It offers the closest comparison to the current mix of a booming post-pandemic recovery, fiscal easing, high savings, low rates, higher inflation and tighter labor markets.\nAt that time, an extended malaise following the 2001 U.S. recession only troughed in 2003, followed by a surge in equity and credit markets as confidence returned. That means 2004 saw similar valuations in global equities, credit spreads and even volatility as those apparent today, Sheets noted in a report Sunday.\n“In short, 2004 represents a more mid-cycle market after a strong, early-cycle rally,” he said. “It saw similar valuations, and what happened next is similar to some key Morgan Stanley forecasts: a pause in equities within an ongoing bull market, lower default rates but slightly wider spreads, modest dollar strength and more mixed equity leadership.”\nWhile there are some key differences -- 2004 was a U.S. election year, there was no quantitative easing and China and emerging-market dynamics were vastly different -- one key lesson to take away is how quickly the Fed moved from preaching patience at the start of the year to hiking rates by June, pushing target rates up 425 basis points over the next two years.\n“History always seems more orderly in hindsight,” he said. “Things can change.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":123897790,"gmtCreate":1624414844810,"gmtModify":1703835969819,"author":{"id":"3572874548548490","authorId":"3572874548548490","name":"kevinlaisq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/329de1199f764a89b7cadf50308e183d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3572874548548490","idStr":"3572874548548490"},"htmlText":"Please comment and like","listText":"Please comment and like","text":"Please comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123897790","repostId":1126572310,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126572310","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624412273,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126572310?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126572310","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin","content":"<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 09:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126572310","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes on the reflation trade -- bets on stocks that benefit from faster economic growth -- which had been humming along since November’s breakthrough vaccine announcements.\nNow that traders have been able to take a few deep breaths and markets have regained their footing, strategists including Natixis Investment Managers and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say that it’s time to reload reflation trades. If anything, the latest wobbles actually strengthened their conviction.\nThe selloff was “bewildering” and a downright overreaction given the long runway until the first potential rate hike in 2023 and the unreliability of dot plots as a predictor, said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and strategist at Natixis, which has more than $1 trillion under management.\n“This caused a nice quick flush out of some weak hands riding the reflation trade and likely reset positioning to a better place,” he said in an email. “As for the reflation trade, it remains intact. We still find many of the inflation-related worries as transitory which makes us give a more nuanced definition to our outlook: reflation, but not inflation.”\nNatixis is sticking with cyclical positions and expects those trades to continue to work, with energy remaining a favorite, Janasiewicz added.\nJPMorgan also sees buying opportunities after reflation trades suffered a “technically driven pullback,” strategists including Marko Kolanovic and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Monday.\n“We expect the trade to resume and see this move as an opportunity to add exposure to cyclical equities and commodities,” they said. “Inflation is likely to continue to realize above both the Fed’s and markets’ expectations, driving bond yields higher and value outperformance.”\nEmerging markets are also poised for further outperformance over developed peers, with JPMorgan raising its year-end target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to 1,550 from 1,450, implying about a 15% upside from current levels. The S&P 500, which fell for four straight sessions last week, has since rebounded to return to the same level as it was the day before the Fed announcement last Wednesday.\nStill, the whipsawing market reactions to the Fed have spurred debate among investors over what to do if reflation trades falter.\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann see a greater focus on short-term rates sensitivity than in the past. Markets are looking to labor and inflation data for clues, as rapid improvements there might bring earlier Fed tightening, according to a note Monday.\n“Coupled with slowing growth momentum, this might continue to weigh on risk appetite in the near term, although the repricing across reflationary assets has already been large,” they said.\nThe 2004 Model\nThe best yardstick for measuring out a path from here could be found by looking at the market’s performance in 2004, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets. It offers the closest comparison to the current mix of a booming post-pandemic recovery, fiscal easing, high savings, low rates, higher inflation and tighter labor markets.\nAt that time, an extended malaise following the 2001 U.S. recession only troughed in 2003, followed by a surge in equity and credit markets as confidence returned. That means 2004 saw similar valuations in global equities, credit spreads and even volatility as those apparent today, Sheets noted in a report Sunday.\n“In short, 2004 represents a more mid-cycle market after a strong, early-cycle rally,” he said. “It saw similar valuations, and what happened next is similar to some key Morgan Stanley forecasts: a pause in equities within an ongoing bull market, lower default rates but slightly wider spreads, modest dollar strength and more mixed equity leadership.”\nWhile there are some key differences -- 2004 was a U.S. election year, there was no quantitative easing and China and emerging-market dynamics were vastly different -- one key lesson to take away is how quickly the Fed moved from preaching patience at the start of the year to hiking rates by June, pushing target rates up 425 basis points over the next two years.\n“History always seems more orderly in hindsight,” he said. “Things can change.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4967308,"gmtCreate":1624415448249,"gmtModify":1663229776235,"authorId":3586310790127154,"author":{"id":3586310790127154,"idStr":"3586310790127154","authorId":3586310790127154,"name":"JohnWL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b004d29f43f551bb076fcdd2e281d3a6","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.01.28","exceedPercentage":"93.33%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":0},"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":123897790,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":123899376,"gmtCreate":1624414521395,"gmtModify":1703835957353,"author":{"id":"3559522411638426","authorId":"3559522411638426","name":"paxxie","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3559522411638426","idStr":"3559522411638426"},"htmlText":"like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"like and comment&nbsp;","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123899376","repostId":1126572310,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126572310","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624412273,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126572310?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126572310","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin","content":"<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 09:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126572310","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes on the reflation trade -- bets on stocks that benefit from faster economic growth -- which had been humming along since November’s breakthrough vaccine announcements.\nNow that traders have been able to take a few deep breaths and markets have regained their footing, strategists including Natixis Investment Managers and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say that it’s time to reload reflation trades. If anything, the latest wobbles actually strengthened their conviction.\nThe selloff was “bewildering” and a downright overreaction given the long runway until the first potential rate hike in 2023 and the unreliability of dot plots as a predictor, said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and strategist at Natixis, which has more than $1 trillion under management.\n“This caused a nice quick flush out of some weak hands riding the reflation trade and likely reset positioning to a better place,” he said in an email. “As for the reflation trade, it remains intact. We still find many of the inflation-related worries as transitory which makes us give a more nuanced definition to our outlook: reflation, but not inflation.”\nNatixis is sticking with cyclical positions and expects those trades to continue to work, with energy remaining a favorite, Janasiewicz added.\nJPMorgan also sees buying opportunities after reflation trades suffered a “technically driven pullback,” strategists including Marko Kolanovic and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Monday.\n“We expect the trade to resume and see this move as an opportunity to add exposure to cyclical equities and commodities,” they said. “Inflation is likely to continue to realize above both the Fed’s and markets’ expectations, driving bond yields higher and value outperformance.”\nEmerging markets are also poised for further outperformance over developed peers, with JPMorgan raising its year-end target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to 1,550 from 1,450, implying about a 15% upside from current levels. The S&P 500, which fell for four straight sessions last week, has since rebounded to return to the same level as it was the day before the Fed announcement last Wednesday.\nStill, the whipsawing market reactions to the Fed have spurred debate among investors over what to do if reflation trades falter.\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann see a greater focus on short-term rates sensitivity than in the past. Markets are looking to labor and inflation data for clues, as rapid improvements there might bring earlier Fed tightening, according to a note Monday.\n“Coupled with slowing growth momentum, this might continue to weigh on risk appetite in the near term, although the repricing across reflationary assets has already been large,” they said.\nThe 2004 Model\nThe best yardstick for measuring out a path from here could be found by looking at the market’s performance in 2004, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets. It offers the closest comparison to the current mix of a booming post-pandemic recovery, fiscal easing, high savings, low rates, higher inflation and tighter labor markets.\nAt that time, an extended malaise following the 2001 U.S. recession only troughed in 2003, followed by a surge in equity and credit markets as confidence returned. That means 2004 saw similar valuations in global equities, credit spreads and even volatility as those apparent today, Sheets noted in a report Sunday.\n“In short, 2004 represents a more mid-cycle market after a strong, early-cycle rally,” he said. “It saw similar valuations, and what happened next is similar to some key Morgan Stanley forecasts: a pause in equities within an ongoing bull market, lower default rates but slightly wider spreads, modest dollar strength and more mixed equity leadership.”\nWhile there are some key differences -- 2004 was a U.S. election year, there was no quantitative easing and China and emerging-market dynamics were vastly different -- one key lesson to take away is how quickly the Fed moved from preaching patience at the start of the year to hiking rates by June, pushing target rates up 425 basis points over the next two years.\n“History always seems more orderly in hindsight,” he said. “Things can change.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4967103,"gmtCreate":1624414835803,"gmtModify":1663229772349,"authorId":3572874548548490,"author":{"id":3572874548548490,"idStr":"3572874548548490","authorId":3572874548548490,"name":"kevinlaisq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/329de1199f764a89b7cadf50308e183d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":123899376,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"pls response <u>backk</u>","text":"pls response <u>backk</u>","html":"pls response <u>backk</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":123808583,"gmtCreate":1624414216042,"gmtModify":1703835948508,"author":{"id":"3569935580474431","authorId":"3569935580474431","name":"EY12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103e86782b34598ff73873d5f9259adb","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}],"authorIdStr":"3569935580474431","idStr":"3569935580474431"},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123808583","repostId":1126572310,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126572310","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624412273,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126572310?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126572310","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin","content":"<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Pivot Seen as Bump, Not Dead End for Reflation Trade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 09:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-pivot-seen-more-detour-072942536.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126572310","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Markets were upended last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would begin to dial back the stimulus that has fueled the recovery from the pandemic.\nThis slammed the brakes on the reflation trade -- bets on stocks that benefit from faster economic growth -- which had been humming along since November’s breakthrough vaccine announcements.\nNow that traders have been able to take a few deep breaths and markets have regained their footing, strategists including Natixis Investment Managers and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say that it’s time to reload reflation trades. If anything, the latest wobbles actually strengthened their conviction.\nThe selloff was “bewildering” and a downright overreaction given the long runway until the first potential rate hike in 2023 and the unreliability of dot plots as a predictor, said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager and strategist at Natixis, which has more than $1 trillion under management.\n“This caused a nice quick flush out of some weak hands riding the reflation trade and likely reset positioning to a better place,” he said in an email. “As for the reflation trade, it remains intact. We still find many of the inflation-related worries as transitory which makes us give a more nuanced definition to our outlook: reflation, but not inflation.”\nNatixis is sticking with cyclical positions and expects those trades to continue to work, with energy remaining a favorite, Janasiewicz added.\nJPMorgan also sees buying opportunities after reflation trades suffered a “technically driven pullback,” strategists including Marko Kolanovic and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Monday.\n“We expect the trade to resume and see this move as an opportunity to add exposure to cyclical equities and commodities,” they said. “Inflation is likely to continue to realize above both the Fed’s and markets’ expectations, driving bond yields higher and value outperformance.”\nEmerging markets are also poised for further outperformance over developed peers, with JPMorgan raising its year-end target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to 1,550 from 1,450, implying about a 15% upside from current levels. The S&P 500, which fell for four straight sessions last week, has since rebounded to return to the same level as it was the day before the Fed announcement last Wednesday.\nStill, the whipsawing market reactions to the Fed have spurred debate among investors over what to do if reflation trades falter.\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann see a greater focus on short-term rates sensitivity than in the past. Markets are looking to labor and inflation data for clues, as rapid improvements there might bring earlier Fed tightening, according to a note Monday.\n“Coupled with slowing growth momentum, this might continue to weigh on risk appetite in the near term, although the repricing across reflationary assets has already been large,” they said.\nThe 2004 Model\nThe best yardstick for measuring out a path from here could be found by looking at the market’s performance in 2004, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets. It offers the closest comparison to the current mix of a booming post-pandemic recovery, fiscal easing, high savings, low rates, higher inflation and tighter labor markets.\nAt that time, an extended malaise following the 2001 U.S. recession only troughed in 2003, followed by a surge in equity and credit markets as confidence returned. That means 2004 saw similar valuations in global equities, credit spreads and even volatility as those apparent today, Sheets noted in a report Sunday.\n“In short, 2004 represents a more mid-cycle market after a strong, early-cycle rally,” he said. “It saw similar valuations, and what happened next is similar to some key Morgan Stanley forecasts: a pause in equities within an ongoing bull market, lower default rates but slightly wider spreads, modest dollar strength and more mixed equity leadership.”\nWhile there are some key differences -- 2004 was a U.S. election year, there was no quantitative easing and China and emerging-market dynamics were vastly different -- one key lesson to take away is how quickly the Fed moved from preaching patience at the start of the year to hiking rates by June, pushing target rates up 425 basis points over the next two years.\n“History always seems more orderly in hindsight,” he said. “Things can change.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4966930,"gmtCreate":1624414269834,"gmtModify":1663229772433,"authorId":3569935580474431,"author":{"id":3569935580474431,"idStr":"3569935580474431","authorId":3569935580474431,"name":"EY12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103e86782b34598ff73873d5f9259adb","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.05.28","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":123808583,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>hi</u>","text":"<u>hi</u>","html":"<u>hi</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":67,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.46.0","shortVersion":"4.46.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1126572310","isCrawlerRequest":true}