Soochow Securities Company Limited has released a research report indicating that AI computing power and memory upgrades are driving higher value in probe card testing, with domestic substitution entering an acceleration phase. Manufacturers equipped with proprietary MEMS probe fabrication and full-card design capabilities are positioned to benefit from both demand growth and product enhancements. Based on assumptions regarding wafer expansion, testing hours, card configuration value, and replacement rates, the domestic memory plus logic market is projected to exceed RMB 20 billion by 2028.
Key insights from the report
Probe cards combine customization with consumable attributes, and demand is driven by new product development, wafer capacity expansion, and existing inventory replacements. Probe cards serve as the critical interface connecting testers to wafers, requiring customization based on chip contact points and testing specifications, with each new chip development directly generating demand for new cards. Post mass production, growth in wafer testing volume drives additional card configurations, while probe wear and product iterations create replacement needs. MEMS technology, leveraging advantages in fine pitch, high pin counts, and contact consistency, has become the mainstream for high-end testing, accounting for 69.8% of the global probe card market in 2024, with memory applications reaching 94.5%. Manufacturers with proprietary MEMS probe manufacturing and full-card design capabilities are well positioned to gain from both rising demand and product upgrades.
The increasing complexity of computing chips is elevating per-card value, while memory expansion and HBM development amplify testing requirements. AI chip contact points are rising, combined with demands for high current, high speed, and multi-temperature testing, driving performance upgrades in probe cards. For Qiangyi 2D/2.5D MEMS probe cards, the average pin count grew from 3,179 in 2021 to 13,297 in the first half of 2025, with average prices climbing from RMB 232,000 to RMB 818,000 over the same period. In the memory segment, DRAM and NAND reduce costs through high-parallel testing, with mature overseas DRAM probe cards now supporting over 3,000 sites per single contact. HBM stacking increases defect loss, reinforcing KGD screening, and creates potential new applications in post-stack and KGS verification. The evolution of optical interconnect toward 200G per lane and the development of CPO also raise requirements for high-frequency and photoelectric coordinated testing.
Domestic demand and local market share are rising in tandem, with computing and memory contributing the primary increments. The global probe card market remains dominated by overseas players, while domestic manufacturers accelerate adoption through proprietary probe manufacturing, enhanced full-card performance, and localized services. Under assumptions around wafer expansion, testing hours, configuration value, and replacement rates, the domestic memory plus logic market is expected to surpass RMB 20 billion by 2028.
Investment recommendations
The report highlights Qiangyi Stock and Hepalink Micro as top picks, with suggestions to monitor Jingzhida, Dogot (unlisted), Taosheng Electronics (unlisted), and Zefeng Semiconductor (unlisted). Qiangyi Stock, leveraging proprietary MEMS probes and full-card manufacturing, benefits from expanding logic and computing product volumes, and extends into memory and optical communication applications through 2.5D MEMS and high-frequency thin-film technologies. Jingzhida offers a coordinated layout of memory testing equipment and probe cards, while Hepalink Micro continues advancing MEMS probe card validation and mass production.
Risk warnings
Downside risks include lower-than-expected downstream demand and capacity expansion, delays in new product development and customer validation, and shifts in technology roadmaps or testing solution approaches.
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