According to Woofun AI, BTC and gold posted year-to-date returns of -7.3% and -7.5% respectively as of October 23, 2026, occupying the bottom two spots among 21 major asset classes.
This is the first time since 2011 that these two traditional havens and alternative investment targets have simultaneously ranked at the bottom in year-to-date performance 鈥?though with two months still remaining in the year, the final rankings could still change.
Charlie Bilello, Chief Market Strategist at Creative Planning, disclosed this rare phenomenon via the X platform, noting that gold had topped the list in 2025 with a gain of 63.7%, while BTC had surged 121% in 2024 but declined 6.3% last year and has continued its weak momentum this year.
Based on the October 23 close, spot gold stood at $3,995.81, falling below $4,000 for the first time since July; BTC was at $80,472, roughly 35% below its peak of over $126,000 in October 2025.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the commodity index-tracking ETF DBC ranked first with a gain of 52.5% over the same period, while U.S. large-cap value stocks rose 23.7%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 15.1%, U.S. large-cap stocks advanced 12.3%, and short-term U.S. Treasuries returned 2.9%. Only 57% of the 21 asset classes recorded positive year-to-date returns.
The return gap between commodities and gold reached as high as 60 percentage points, highlighting the dramatic extent of asset rotation.
The underlying cause lies in Middle East tensions driving up international oil prices, intensifying inflationary pressures and strengthening market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes 鈥?CME FedWatch shows traders have priced in a 68% probability of a December rate hike.
Since BTC and gold do not generate interest income themselves, rising rate expectations place greater valuation pressure on them. Additionally, risk-aversion sentiment triggered by the technology stock sell-off has further suppressed BTC's price movement.
The market is currently closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for the 27th to 28th, as well as the U.S. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index to be released on the 29th. The future direction of interest rates and the outcome of the midterm elections will become key variables determining whether these two assets can rebound before year-end.
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