Five informed sources revealed that both Iraq and Pakistan have reached agreements with Iran to transport oil and liquefied natural gas from the Gulf region. This underscores Tehran's capability to control energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran Shifts from Blockade to Control Claudio Stuer of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies noted that the war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has significantly reduced energy exports from the region, which typically supplies 20% of the world's crude oil and LNG. Despite weeks of U.S. port blockades against Iran, Tehran has moved from attempting to halt traffic in the strait to managing transit rights. Stuer stated, "The Strait of Hormuz is no longer a neutral passage but a controlled corridor."
Iraq Secures Crude Oil Transport Agreement Iraq, which usually exports most of its crude via the strait, is among the oil-producing nations most affected by the blockade. An Iraqi oil ministry official reported that Iraq has entered into a previously undisclosed deal with Iran, ensuring the safe passage of two very large crude carriers, each carrying approximately 2 million barrels of oil, through the strait on Sunday. Iraq is now working to secure Iranian approval for additional shipments to safeguard oil revenues, which account for 95% of its budget.
The official added, "Iraq is a close ally of Iran, and any deterioration in Iraq's economy would also harm Iran's economic interests in the country."
Pakistan Obtains Qatari LNG Similarly, two industry sources indicated that two tankers carrying Qatari LNG are en route to Pakistan as part of another bilateral agreement between Islamabad and Tehran. Before the conflict, Pakistan received about 10 LNG cargoes per month and currently needs to meet peak summer electricity demand.
The sources mentioned that neither Iraq nor Pakistan has made direct payments to Iran or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for these shipments. Qatar is not directly involved in the bilateral agreements but informed the United States before dispatching the cargoes to Pakistan.
Iran Tightens Control A research director at consulting firm MST Marquee suggested that as more governments are willing to strike transit deals with Iran, this could normalize the idea of Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz for a longer period.
Industry sources stated that Iran is formalizing its control over the strait. An Iraqi oil ministry official noted that Iran has requested Iraq to submit documentation for each tanker to transit via designated sea lanes under the supervision of its navy.
A Pakistani source familiar with the negotiations with Iran mentioned encountering some issues in the process: "The Revolutionary Guard sometimes changes the rules, making it challenging to keep everything on track, but we are working to resolve it."
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