GTHT Securities has initiated coverage on BIOCYTOGEN-B (02315) with an "Add" rating. As a globally leading preclinical CRO and biotechnology firm, the company possesses deep technological moats and demonstrates stable growth in its preclinical product and service revenue, with its "Thousand Mice Ten Thousand Antibodies" plan now entering a value-realization phase. Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted at RMB 0.38, RMB 0.74, and RMB 1.21, representing year-on-year growth of 411.08%, 91.82%, and 64.10%, respectively. Applying a prudent valuation approach using both PE and PS multiples, a target price of RMB 57.72 per share is set, corresponding to a 2026 PE of 78x. The key viewpoints from GTHT Securities are outlined below.
The preclinical products and services segment provides a solid foundation, driving rapid business revenue growth. The company boasts leading gene-editing technologies, having independently developed core platforms like CRISPR/EGE and SUPCE to create the world's most extensively humanized fully human antibody mouse platform. As an essential component of innovative drug development, its model animal and pharmacodynamic evaluation services, supported by a world-leading model library and internationally standardized service capabilities, constitute a stable pillar of cash flow. Sales from model animals surged from RMB 66 million in 2021 to RMB 389 million in 2024, achieving a revenue CAGR exceeding 50%. The company serves a high-quality client base and is accelerating its global footprint, having established long-term collaborations with all top ten global pharmaceutical firms. It has cumulatively served over 950 global partners and completed more than 6,350 drug evaluation projects, with a customer retention rate for preclinical pharmacodynamic evaluations consistently above 60%. Its early overseas expansion and comprehensive facilities result in significantly higher average order values internationally compared to domestic orders, highlighting its robust risk resilience and profitability.
The "Thousand Mice Ten Thousand Antibodies" plan is entering its value-realization phase, with antibody development and out-licensing business emerging as a powerful growth engine. BIOCYTOGEN's innovative model, centered around an "Antibody Shelf," breaks the efficiency bottlenecks of traditional antibody development and serves as the core engine for its differentiated competitiveness. Revenue from antibody development skyrocketed from RMB 127 million in 2022 to RMB 318 million in 2024, boasting a CAGR of 58%, with a gross margin exceeding 90% in 2024. Its million-scale antibody sequence library not only provides global partners with readily available, high-quality antibody molecules but also maximizes technological value through diverse models such as out-licensing and collaborative development. Its self-developed core pipelines focus on high-value therapeutic areas, complementing its partnered pipelines to gradually unlock commercial potential and forge new growth engines.
Potential catalysts include model animal sales exceeding expectations and antibody out-licensing deals surpassing forecasts.
Key risks involve technological upgrade and iteration risks, changes in industry policies, and the risk of core technology leakage.
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