An interim performance forecast released by BLUE MOON GROUP (06993) indicates that its net loss for the first half of the year is expected to narrow by no less than 55% year-on-year. This improvement builds on the momentum from 2025, where the full-year loss had already contracted substantially by 56.1% to approximately HK$329 million. The announcement serves as a pivotal signal, marking a significant operational inflection point for the company.
Strategic Investments Begin to Yield Results
Sustained investments over the past two years into its self-hosted live-streaming matrix, knowledge-based marketing system, and channel structure are now translating into measurable operational efficiencies. In 2024, BLUE MOON GROUP adeptly capitalized on the live-streaming e-commerce trend through deep collaborations with top influencers. This strategy rapidly expanded user reach and brand penetration in new channels, establishing a benchmark case for the industry and achieving notable success in launching new products. Building on this foundation, 2025 saw the company enter a phase of strategic upgrade. It systematically transformed the traffic operation experience gained from influencer collaborations into the construction of its own live-streaming matrix, the development of a knowledge marketing system, and deeper penetration of its offline distribution network. This effort is aimed at building a more sustainable, full-channel operational capability.
This strategic shift is being validated by data. Full-year sales and distribution expenses for 2025 decreased by 11.5% year-on-year to HK$4.468 billion. Concurrently, the self-hosted live-streaming matrix is taking shape, and the knowledge marketing IP "Amazing Future Laundry Tech" garnered over 1.8 billion exposures in the first half of 2025. Revenue from the offline distributor channel grew by 15% year-on-year. While the total resource investment has been adjusted, its allocation has become more targeted and its structure more optimized, leading to a continuous improvement in overall utilization efficiency.
Channel Strategy Undergoes Structural Transformation
In terms of channel strategy, BLUE MOON GROUP has largely completed a crucial structural shift. The focus evolved from exploring and laying out new platforms in 2024 to a comprehensive, refined, and synergistic multi-channel approach in 2025. The company is simultaneously advancing its self-hosted live-streaming matrix, deepening offline distribution network penetration, and strengthening collaborations with major e-commerce platforms like Douyin, Tmall, and JD.com. This is gradually establishing an integrated online-to-offline, omni-channel operational system. Online, a closed-loop of "content seeding—shelf conversion—instant transaction" has been formed. Offline, expansion into terminal stores and resource optimization continue to penetrate lower-tier markets. During the 618 shopping festival, several of its core product categories secured the top sales position on major e-commerce platforms. This system is operating continuously, with marginal costs declining.
Potential Second-Half Profitability Aligns with Long-Term Rhythm
The true significance of this forecast may be missed by looking at a single period in isolation. Extending the timeline reveals a clear operational cadence for BLUE MOON GROUP: the first half is typically an investment period, while the second half is a harvest period. In both 2022 and 2023, second-half operating results were significantly better than the first half, allowing the company to remain profitable for the full year. Despite industry-wide pressure in 2024, second-half revenue still grew by approximately 17.5% compared to the first half. This rhythm was reaffirmed in 2025, with second-half performance showing clear improvement over the first half, leading to a substantial narrowing of the annual loss. Based on this pattern, the improving trend is expected to continue into the second half of 2026, creating further potential for positive full-year performance.
Market Leadership Indicates a Robust Moat
The sustainability of this performance improvement ultimately hinges on the strength of the company's competitive moat. A moat should not be a static defense line but a widening river—securing the core business while continuously expanding new frontiers. Market share is one of the most direct indicators of a brand's moat. According to the China National Commercial Information Center, BLUE MOON GROUP's laundry detergent has ranked first in comprehensive market share among similar products for 17 consecutive years, maintaining the top position since the category was first included in statistics in 2009. Per the 2026 China Brand Power Index released by Chnbrand, BLUE MOON GROUP's laundry detergent and hand wash have also ranked first in category brand power for 16 consecutive years. Both the "Blue Moon" and "Supreme" trademarks received AAA-level evaluations from the China Trademark Association, making the company the only one in the industry to receive this honor.
These data points lead to the same conclusion: even during the most intense period of industry competition, BLUE MOON GROUP's fundamental market position has remained unshaken. Accumulation on the product side is also noteworthy. The Supreme series is the core product of the company's "Concentrated+" strategy, maintaining a cumulative positive review rate of over 98% since its launch. Meanwhile, the expansion into functional laundry detergent categories (such as for intimate wear, antibacterial/deodorizing, and sportswear) and the growing contribution of the Jingxiang series in the personal care segment are extending the company's technological capabilities from laundry into broader home cleaning scenarios. This is gradually reducing reliance on a single category.
The personal care category is becoming a notable growth driver. Full-year 2025 revenue for this segment grew 12.8% year-on-year to HK$578 million, with first-half growth reaching 12.4%, making it the fastest-growing among the company's three major business segments. As new products continue to gain traction and category penetration increases, personal care has the potential to evolve from a "fast-growing" segment to one that can "substantially support" the company, becoming a significant pillar for future growth.
Analysts See Profit Recovery Path Opening
Improvements in the company's fundamentals are being recognized by professional institutions. Guotai Haitong Securities recently initiated coverage on BLUE MOON GROUP with an "Add" rating and a target price of HK$3.63. The report identifies the company as the "absolute leader" in the daily chemical cleaning sector and anticipates it will enter a profit recovery phase from 2026 to 2028. Net profit is projected to gradually increase from HK$40 million to HK$320 million and then to HK$410 million over this period.
This outlook is based on the growth of China's home cleaning and care market, which expanded from RMB 117.2 billion in 2019 to RMB 150.1 billion in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.1%. This demonstrates the "anti-cyclical" resilience of essential goods amidst consumption fluctuations. Under the current industry structure, leading companies including BLUE MOON GROUP collectively hold over 40% market share, with concentration continuing to rise. Following the significant operational improvement in 2025 and the ongoing advancement of integrated full-channel development, leading players have room to further expand their market share and pricing power amid this industry consolidation trend. As a core player in the sector, BLUE MOON GROUP is positioned to leverage significant competitive advantages in the new round of structural change.
From optimizing its cost structure and rebuilding its channel model to maturing its self-hosted live-streaming matrix and achieving full-channel synergy, BLUE MOON GROUP is progressively constructing a more efficient growth model while maintaining strategic investment. The earlier-stage layouts are now entering a harvest period. Whether this system can support the company's return to a path of sustained profitability will be a critical test in the upcoming performance windows.
Comments