Crude oil exports from major Middle Eastern producers have rebounded significantly in recent days, approaching their highest levels since the outbreak of the US-Israel war against Iran in February.
According to the latest statistics from oil data tracking agency Kpler, crude exports from key Middle Eastern producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes recovered to approximately 12.8 million barrels per day in September. While still below the pre-war level of about 18.8 million barrels per day, this marks a clear improvement from earlier lows.
This shift directly undermines Iran's ability to use the severance of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip, while also increasing the potential risk of further conflict escalation in the region.
Export Rebound and Shipping Recovery Status
According to preliminary Kpler data, crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are estimated at approximately 7.4 million barrels per day in September. Saudi crude exports recovered to about 5.4 million barrels per day, a sharp increase from 2.446 million barrels per day in August, with loadings at the Ras Tanura port rising to approximately 3.6 million barrels per day. Last week, a total of 19 Very Large Crude Carriers carrying Saudi crude departed the strait, each with a capacity of approximately 2 million barrels.
Ship tracking agency data shows that total Middle Eastern exports hit a new high since the February war, recovering to approximately two-thirds of pre-war regional supply levels. The US Navy and Gulf oil producers have accumulated more experience in responding to potential attacks, with escort operations and rerouting arrangements enabling more tankers to pass through or avoid risks. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that no confirmed attacks or disruptions occurred in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 72 hours, though threats remain. The most recent recorded attack occurred on September 23. This brief calm may be related to observing US negotiating intentions, but analysts warn that the situation remains unstable.
Iran's Oil Revenue Faces Depletion Pressure
Since the US resumed its maritime blockade in July, Iran has been unable to transport crude through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler estimates that Iran's oil reserves accumulated outside the blockade zone have dropped from approximately 29 million barrels in early September to about 15 million barrels. This cargo, primarily destined for a major Asian country, may be exhausted by mid-to-late October. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently stated that within the next two weeks, Iran may complete its final oil delivery to the major Asian country, after which it will face a situation of having no oil left to sell. Truck transport capacity is limited, with a maximum daily volume of approximately 40,000 barrels, far below the pre-war daily export level of nearly 2 million barrels.
This situation has cut off Iran's key source of revenue, further straining its economy under the dual pressure of sanctions and war. Tehran's ability to extract concessions by threatening global energy supplies has been significantly weakened, and it has lost an important bargaining chip in ceasefire negotiations. Last Friday, US President Trump rejected Iran's new ceasefire proposal, which had originally called for opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the blockade on Iranian ports for seven days to create space for negotiations.
Conflict Escalation Triggers and Regional Security Risks
As oil revenue declines and neighboring countries find workarounds, Iran may view resuming attacks as its only remaining means of applying pressure, even at the risk of US retaliation. Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House, noted that this indicates the diminishing returns of Iran's strategy in the Strait of Hormuz, which could trigger a more explosive situation, prompting it to actively provoke or push for a larger-scale conflict to escape its predicament.
Gulf oil producers are concerned about new attacks on energy infrastructure. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, responsible for defending the Iranian regime and active in the strait area, may adjust its tactics to intensify attacks on ports, refineries, and pipelines. The organization also coordinates a regional militia network, having already extended the conflict to the Red Sea through Yemen's Houthi rebels, attacking Saudi-related shipping and facilities. The impact of any conflict escalation would extend beyond the region, and the fragility of the global economy means it cannot withstand another severe disruption to energy supplies. Although the export rebound has eased upward pressure on oil prices, a successful attack could cause prices to spike rapidly. Hamad Hussain, Senior Economist at Capital Economics, stated that with the conflict not decisively resolved, the balance of oil price risks will continue to tilt upward.
Vulnerability and Cost Issues of Alternative Routes
After the February war broke out, Iranian attacks severely disrupted shipping, forcing Gulf oil producers to seek alternatives. Saudi Arabia transported crude via the damaged East-West pipeline to the Red Sea for loading, while the UAE used the pipeline to the Fujairah port on the Gulf of Oman, but these initially failed to fully fill the gap. Earlier this month, an Iraqi drone attack forced the closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, and Houthi threats also heightened Red Sea risks, prompting Saudi Aramco to divert more oil back to Hormuz. The latest reports indicate that the pipeline has resumed operations after repairs, with current throughput at approximately 3.5 million barrels per day, with part of the output supplying domestic refineries. These workaround arrangements are cumbersome and costly, and Gulf officials consider them temporary measures that are difficult to sustain long-term. Iran, meanwhile, lacks similar bypass capabilities, with newly loaded crude still trapped within the blockade line. A statement under the name of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei still mentions "defenders of the Strait of Hormuz," indicating that Tehran continues to view control of the waterway as a key means of applying pressure.
Editor's Summary
Middle Eastern crude exports have rebounded to approximately 12.8 million barrels per day, with Hormuz shipping partially recovering, reflecting the enhanced adaptability of Gulf oil producers and the US Navy, as well as the declining effectiveness of Iran's blockade strategy. Iran's oil reserves are expected to be exhausted around mid-October, further weakening its economic and negotiating position. Meanwhile, the vulnerability of alternative routes and regional militia activities increase the risk of renewed conflict escalation, and global energy markets still face upward pressure. The situation depends on negotiation progress and the degree of military restraint by all parties. Although the export rebound has eased short-term supply tightness, it has not eliminated the potential impact of geopolitical uncertainty on oil prices and the global economy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: To what level have Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded? Where does the specific data come from?
A: The latest Kpler data shows that crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers through Hormuz and alternative routes reached approximately 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the February war broke out, but still about 6 million barrels below the pre-war level of approximately 18.8 million barrels per day. Hormuz flows are estimated at approximately 7.4 million barrels per day, Saudi exports recovered to about 5.4 million barrels per day, and Ras Tanura port at approximately 3.6 million barrels per day. Last week, 19 VLCCs carrying Saudi crude departed the strait. These figures are based on ship tracking and exclude vessels that may have turned off AIS signals, so actual volumes could be slightly higher. The export rebound was supported by increased Gulf loadings by Saudi Arabia and improved shipping security from US escorts.
Q: Why can Iran no longer export oil through Hormuz? When will its reserves be exhausted?
A: After the US resumed its maritime blockade in July, Iranian crude cannot be transported through the strait. Reserves accumulated outside the blockade zone have dropped from approximately 29 million barrels in early September to about 15 million barrels, primarily destined for a major Asian country, and are expected to be exhausted by mid-to-late October at the current pace. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the final delivery could be completed within the next two weeks. Truck capacity is only about 40,000 barrels per day, far below the pre-war daily export level of nearly 2 million barrels. This has cut off Iran's key revenue, straining its economy under sanctions and war pressure, and weakening its ability to use energy supplies as leverage to extract concessions.
Q: How does the export rebound affect Iran's negotiating leverage and conflict risk?
A: The rebound has significantly reduced Iran's ability to pressure through cutting off Hormuz supplies, costing it a strong position in ceasefire negotiations. Trump has rejected its latest ceasefire proposal. At the same time, reduced revenue may prompt Iran to resume attacks or expand the conflict to regain leverage. Chatham House expert Vakil noted diminishing returns of the strategy, which could lead to a more intense situation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may adjust tactics to attack infrastructure and extend to the Red Sea through the Houthis, increasing the risk of regional escalation.
Q: What is the current status of alternative export routes for Saudi Arabia and other countries? Are they reliable?
A: Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was repaired after a drone attack and has resumed operations, currently at approximately 3.5 million barrels per day, with part supplying domestic refineries. The UAE bypasses through the Fujairah pipeline. However, these routes are complex to operate, costly, and vulnerable to attacks, such as the recent pipeline closure and Red Sea threats, and officials consider them temporary arrangements. More oil in the export rebound has been diverted back to Hormuz, showing the limitations of alternatives. Long-term reliance remains on the security of the strait.
Q: What is the impact on global oil prices and the economy? What is the future outlook?
A: The export rebound has eased supply tightness and upward pressure on oil prices, but the unresolved conflict keeps risks tilted to the upside. A successful attack could cause prices to spike rapidly. The global economy is fragile and cannot withstand another severe disruption. Capital Economics expert Hussain emphasized that without a decisive resolution, oil price risks will continue to tilt upward. The situation depends on negotiations and military restraint, and short-term supply improvement does not mean geopolitical risks have been eliminated. Markets still need to closely monitor shipping security and the timeline for reserve depletion. As of 11:02, US crude oil is currently quoted at $93.76 per barrel.
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