Commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has failed to recover as anticipated, despite international mediation and a fragile temporary ceasefire agreement reached since the escalation of conflict in late February 2026. According to shipping monitoring data, the former bustling activity in the area has vanished, with daily transit numbers plummeting from a peak of 135 vessels to single digits. Currently, over 2,000 vessels of various types are stranded near the exit of the Persian Gulf, including more than 200 supertankers fully loaded with crude oil. This de facto blockade has driven Brent crude prices to a high of $98 per barrel, leaving global energy markets in a state of extreme tension.
The Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization has announced two safe sea lanes, indicating Iran's attempt to formally assert control over the waterway. The organization stated that establishing these lanes aims to avoid potential anti-ship mines along the conventional routes in the narrow strait. While vessels associated with Iran were transiting, three Chinese tankers carrying Saudi and Iraqi crude oil headed towards the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, anchoring near the entrance. This strait handles approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Despite an earlier U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement this week causing a sharp drop in oil prices, the deadlock persists. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with crude oil flows nearly halted, creating a severe supply shortage in the market. While futures prices have declined, physical crude oil supply remains scarce.
U.S. Vice President Vance stated there were signs the Strait of Hormuz was beginning to reopen, but the CEO of the UAE's largest oil producer indicated on Thursday that the strait remains practically closed. Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, commented on LinkedIn: "It must be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Transit is restricted, constrained, and controlled." Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister told British ITV that "any" vessel is free to navigate but must coordinate with the Iranian military and confirmed that mines had been laid in the channel. According to an informed source, a crew reported hearing an Iranian warning on Wednesday that passage through the strait still required permission from the Islamic Republic. Another source stated that at least one tanker canceled its transit plans upon learning that Iran still insists on granting permission.
The pace of reopening the Strait of Hormuz is critical for global energy markets. Even if vessels begin to depart, given the ceasefire is only slated for two weeks, it remains unclear whether other ships will be willing to enter. Furthermore, once oil shipments through the waterway resume, it will take weeks to months for the crude to reach buyers. President Trump stated in a social media post last night that U.S. forces would remain in the region, warning that without an agreement, a "'gunfight' will erupt, exceeding previous ones in scale, intensity, and force."
The head of the International Maritime Organization stated on Thursday that any attempt by Iran to permanently impose a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz would set a dangerous and unacceptable precedent. Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said, "We cannot accept another country introducing a different mechanism inconsistent with international practice." He stated the IMO is working to restore shipping in the region to pre-war conditions, and multiple nations, including the UK, are investigating the possible presence of mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Martin Kelly, Head of Consulting at EOS Risk Group, described the re-emergence of mine discussions in the Strait of Hormuz as the "worst-case scenario for the shipping industry." He noted that if the normally used Traffic Separation Scheme is compromised by mines, restoring safe passage could take at least several months.
Currently, bookings for oil-carrying vessels within the Persian Gulf remain limited. According to a Bloomberg-compiled list of charter hires, a trading firm booked a vessel on Wednesday to transport a million barrels of crude from Iraq. Market sources said a booking for another Middle East crude supertanker failed the same day. Two Persian Gulf crude traders stated that cargo trading in the region has seen little change since the ceasefire. The International Chamber of Shipping, a trade group representing over 80% of the world's commercial fleet owners, stated that more work is needed before large-scale vessel transit can resume. Secretary-General Thomas Kazakos said in a Bloomberg Radio interview, "Progress is minimal because there is no clear guarantee of safe passage." He added, "We still haven't received definitive information on how traffic will normalize."
Under the cover of a military blockade, Iran is employing an unprecedented administrative approach, attempting to transform temporary military control of the strait into long-term institutional jurisdiction. Iran's parliament is currently accelerating efforts to pass controversial legislation aimed at imposing a so-called "transit security fee" on all foreign merchant vessels passing through the strait. Under the proposed scheme, a Very Large Crude Carrier might need to pay up to $2 million for passage permission, with Iranian authorities explicitly demanding settlement in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan to circumvent existing financial sanctions. This move, dubbed the "Iranian toll booth" by the international shipping community, not only directly challenges the principle of transit passage under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea but also signals Iran's attempt to convert an internationally recognized high-seas route into a managed internal water space.
Simultaneously, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is enforcing strict categorization management and mandatory routing in practice. All vessels granted permission to transit must strictly adhere to two "safe corridors" designated by the Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization, confined to the narrow waters between Larak Island and Qeshm Island to facilitate close-range identification and real-time monitoring by the Iranian military. Under this selective transit mechanism, vessels linked to the U.S. or Israel are completely excluded from the transit list, while ships from specific countries maintaining friendly trade relations with Iran receive priority passage. This highly discriminatory transit policy is reshaping global tanker scheduling patterns, forcing many non-qualified merchant vessels to detour via the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, adding weeks to voyage times and increasing inflationary premium pressures globally.
Looking ahead to the coming week, diplomatic efforts enter a critical phase. Although the White House publicly downplays the severity of the blockade and insists Iran has shown a willingness to de-escalate in private communications, a significant gap exists between on-the-ground reality and diplomatic rhetoric. A secret meeting scheduled for this Saturday in Islamabad, Pakistan, between U.S. and Iranian representatives is seen as key to breaking the current deadlock. If the parties cannot reach a阶段性 compromise on freedom of navigation in the strait and Iran's territorial claims, the risk of long-term administrative control over the Strait of Hormuz will persist. In such a scenario, global energy prices could face the extreme risk of exceeding $120 per barrel, while soaring international shipping insurance premiums would further erode the momentum of global economic recovery.
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