Analysis of the latest gold market trends: On June 29, analysis of gold market news: In early Asian trading on Monday, spot gold traded within a narrow range, currently hovering around $4,060 per ounce. Spot gold managed a modest rebound of 1.35% last Friday (June 26), closing at $4,081.02 per ounce. However, this insignificant gain cannot conceal a harsh reality—gold prices have fallen for the fourth consecutive week. Since hitting a historic peak of $5,596 on January 29, gold prices have plummeted by approximately 29%. The once highly sought-after safe-haven asset is now experiencing its longest weekly losing streak since 2023. Meanwhile, tensions are rising over the Strait of Hormuz, with U.S. forces and Iran engaging in renewed clashes over the weekend. When safe-haven assets fail to provide safety, and gold prices hesitate to move amid the sound of artillery, what market logic lies behind this round of gold's collapse?
Gold Technical Analysis: From the current chart perspective, this week presents a dual critical window for gold, marking both the monthly close and the release of significant non-farm payroll data, which will significantly amplify price volatility. From a technical standpoint on the monthly chart, the medium-term bearish trend is clear. The monthly chart shows consecutive bearish closes, with prices consistently pressured below the 5-month and 10-month moving averages. Bearish momentum continues to be released, with a lack of upward momentum on the monthly level. Any rebounds struggle to sustain above short-term moving averages. Resistance is observed around 4,460, while support is noted near 3,730.
On the weekly chart, the structure maintains a pattern of progressively lower highs and lows. Each minor rebound merely represents a technical correction, with prices quickly retreating upon touching moving average resistance. Multiple timeframes show bearish alignment, with layered resistance above. Only minor buying interest exists at lower levels, providing brief support but insufficient to reverse the downtrend. The key focus remains on the critical support level around 3,960. A break below this level would open the door for a new wave of downward movement.
On the daily chart, the overall structure remains weak, with prices pressured by short-term moving averages. Rebound strength is feeble, with each upward move met with selling pressure and a subsequent decline. No clear reversal signals are present; short-term rebounds are merely technical corrections. Multiple resistance levels cap the upside, and the larger downtrend remains unchanged. The trading strategy should remain focused on selling on rallies, with light positions for short-term long trades to capture corrections. Blindly chasing rallies is not advised. The primary approach should be to position sell orders around resistance levels, with key resistance observed around 4,180.
On the 4-hour chart, a strong upward rally has emerged. Gold prices have firmly stabilized above short-term moving averages, with MA5 and MA10 forming a golden cross that continues to provide underlying support. Prices are repeatedly testing highs while relying on the middle Bollinger Band, with very weak pullback intensity. The MACD shows expanding red bars above the zero line, indicating sufficient bullish momentum. Higher lows are being established, forming a complete upward structure. Minor short-term pressure does not alter the upward rhythm; any pullbacks present opportunities to buy on dips. Minor overhead resistance only leads to brief consolidation and is unlikely to reverse the bullish structure. The trading approach should prioritize buying on dips near support levels.
In summary, the short-term trading strategy for gold today suggests a primary focus on buying on dips, supplemented by selling on rallies. Key short-term resistance is observed in the 4,115-4,145 range, while key short-term support lies in the 4,025-4,000 range.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends: Analysis of crude oil market news: In early Asian trading on Monday (June 29, Beijing time), U.S. crude oil opened more than 1% higher, trading around $70 per barrel. Over the weekend, U.S. forces again targeted Iranian objectives. Iran stated it would assume full control of the Strait of Hormuz for the next 30 days, and any intervention would delay its reopening, adding to uncertainty risks. Concurrently, it is reported that U.S. and Iranian officials will meet in Doha on Tuesday. Oil prices suffered a significant setback last Friday, with both major benchmark contracts closing lower—Brent crude fell 1.9% to close at $73.47 per barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 1.72% to close at $70.24 per barrel. The decline was driven by the continued passage of more tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, significantly alleviating supply concerns sparked by an earlier attack on a cargo ship near Oman.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: From the daily chart perspective, the moving average system is gradually diverging downward, indicating the medium-term objective trend direction is entering a downtrend. Crude oil prices have broken below the lower support boundary of a consolidation range that lasted over three months, signaling strengthening bearish momentum. It is anticipated that the medium-term price movement will primarily follow a downward trajectory.
On the short-term (1-hour) chart, the continuous downward slide has ended, with a rebound underway. The short-term objective trend direction is entering a transition phase, with bullish momentum strengthening. Prices have broken above the depicted downtrend line. It is expected that intraday crude oil movements will oscillate and hover around this trendline.
In summary, the trading strategy for crude oil today suggests a primary focus on selling on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance is observed in the 71.2-72.5 range, while key short-term support lies in the 68.5-67.0 range.
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