A new "epic" long-term contract has emerged in the new energy industry chain. On the evening of January 13, leading cathode material producer Ronbay Technology (688005.SH) announced it had signed a "Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Cathode Material Procurement Cooperation Agreement" with CATL (300750.SZ). The agreement stipulates the supply of approximately 3.05 million metric tons of LFP cathode materials to CATL between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2030, with the total contract value estimated to exceed 120 billion yuan. Following the announcement, the Shanghai Stock Exchange swiftly issued an inquiry letter that same night, demanding the company clarify core issues including its fulfillment capability, capacity planning, and pricing mechanisms, and announced that Ronbay Technology's stock would be suspended for one day starting January 14. This deal represents not only the highest-value single procurement agreement in the global new energy materials sector in recent years but also a stark illustration of the accelerated adjustment in power battery technology routes and the intense transformation pressure facing upstream material companies.
The unprecedented scale of the order is equivalent to Ronbay Technology "rebuilding itself." According to the announcement, the agreement covers a five-year supply period (effectively extending into 2031), with an average annual supply volume of 610,000 metric tons and an average annual contract value of approximately 24 billion yuan. To put this in perspective against Ronbay's current scale: its full-year 2024 revenue was 15.088 billion yuan; revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was only 8.986 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year decline; the company had already forecasted in early January 2026 a full-year 2025 net loss of 150 to 190 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 296 million yuan in 2024. This implies that this single order alone would propel Ronbay's average annual revenue over the next five years to more than 1.6 times its current level, a transformative shift akin to a "rebirth."
However, a critical question arises: where will such a massive delivery volume come from? As of December 2025, Ronbay Technology, through its acquisition of Guizhou Xinren New Energy, possessed only 60,000 metric tons per year of built LFP production capacity. Even assuming the industry's fastest capacity expansion pace (12-18 months to build a new 100,000-ton production line), achieving an annual supply of 508,000 tons would require adding approximately 450,000 tons per year of new capacity—equivalent to constructing 5-6 additional large-scale production lines, with a total investment potentially exceeding 10 billion yuan. With the company anticipating a net loss of nearly 200 million yuan in 2025, can its cash on hand support such aggressive capital expenditure? This is the core focus of the stock exchange's inquiry.
Price concerns are paramount, with the contract price significantly below market rates. Based on the 120 billion yuan value for 3.05 million tons, the unit price equates to approximately 39,300 yuan per metric ton. According to data from BaiChuan Info, as of January 13, 2026, the average market price for power-grade LFP was 56,800 yuan/ton, while energy storage-grade LFP was 54,700 yuan/ton. Ronbay's contracted price is about 28%-31% lower than the market price, far below the current cost line. More critically, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, a core raw material, had stabilized and rebounded in early 2026. Data from SMM on January 12 showed its average price reached 152,000 yuan/ton, a single-day increase of over 8%. If lithium prices continue to recover to above 200,000 yuan/ton, Ronbay Technology could face severe cost-price inversion. Industry analysts suggest CATL's move is essentially "locking in price with volume," securing a low-priced long-term contract while lithium carbonate prices are low, thereby suppressing upstream price inflation expectations and consolidating its own cost advantage. For the supplier, however, this represents a high-risk gamble.
This deal marks a strategic pivot for a former ternary cathode leader forced into a major transformation. Ronbay Technology was once the absolute leader in the ternary cathode materials field. But the shift in technology routes is irreversible: from January to October 2025, LFP accounted for a dominant 81.3% of China's power battery installation volume, while ternary lithium held only 18.7%; the application scenarios for ternary batteries have been compressed to high-end vehicles and overseas markets, with domestic installation volume in the first 10 months of 2025 falling 3% year-on-year. Against this backdrop, Ronbay Technology officially announced its entry into the LFP sector in July 2025 and acquired Guizhou Xinren for 342 million yuan in December to quickly secure 60,000 tons of capacity. The company claims its new process can shorten the production workflow from 15 steps to just 6, reduce investment costs by 40%, cut energy consumption by 30%, and achieve "industry-leading" performance in metrics like compaction density and first-cycle efficiency. Partnering with CATL serves both as a validation of this technology and a necessity for survival—failure to establish a foothold in the LFP market could lead to a dual crisis of core business contraction and valuation collapse.
Regulatory scrutiny is high, with the exchange directly questioning "fulfillment capability doubts." On the same day, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's inquiry letter went straight to the heart of the matter, posing four key questions: 1. Does the agreement include annual minimum supply volume constraints? 2. Provide details on planned, under-construction, and proposed LFP production capacities. 3. Detail the funding sources and capital expenditure plans. 4. Does a price adjustment mechanism exist to cope with raw material price fluctuations? Behind these questions lies regulators' heightened vigilance against market malpractices such as "inflating orders" and "overpromising on capacity." In recent years, several listed companies have faced investigations after failing to deliver on exaggerated order expectations that initially caused stock price volatility. If Ronbay cannot provide a clear, verifiable path for capacity realization, this 120-billion-yuan mega-order may fail to translate into actual performance and could instead exacerbate its financial strain.
Ronbay Technology's high-stakes gamble reflects the determination of a traditional ternary materials leader navigating a technological route shift. CATL, seizing the opportunity, is locking in key material supplies for the next five years at low prices, a move that may accelerate industry consolidation. For the capital markets, the 120 billion yuan figure is not the finish line but rather the starting point for testing execution capability. Whether the order can be converted into capacity, whether that capacity can be converted into profit, and whether the profits can cover the risks—the answers to these three questions will ultimately determine if this 120-billion-yuan "olive branch" leads to a win-win outcome or a lose-lose scenario.
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