Market Analysis: On March 6th, the full-scale escalation of the US-Iran conflict and disruptions to energy supply routes have become the primary sources of uncertainty in financial markets. Gold has demonstrated remarkable resilience and appeal amidst intense volatility. The shift from Tuesday's panic selling to Wednesday's rapid rebound underscores its irreplaceable role during systemic risks. While macroeconomic data and monetary policy trajectories exert some counter-pressure, safe-haven demand and inflation-hedging logic dominate. The medium-term uptrend for gold remains intact, with increased volatility presenting greater opportunities. Investors should closely monitor the latest developments in the Middle East and Friday's non-farm payrolls data to gauge short-term momentum.
Gold Technical Analysis: Daily Chart: Wednesday's gold price closed with a small bullish candle featuring a long upper shadow, indicating pressure below short-term moving averages. Following the significant decline, the market has entered a phase of bottom consolidation and recovery. For a genuine stabilization, a secondary decline to form a higher low is necessary, with the 5000 level being a key support. A successful rebound from this secondary test, followed by a breakthrough and sustained position above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, would signal a shift from weak to strong consolidation, potentially leading to a step-like rally towards the 5400-5500 high range.
Hourly Chart: Gold opened higher on Thursday morning, reaching 5195 before facing resistance and pulling back in the afternoon. The price completed a 50-point range swing before returning to its opening level. During the European session, it traded within a narrow range, forming a small converging triangle pattern with progressively lower highs, failing to surpass the Asian session peak. The US session is expected to maintain a weak consolidation bias. Channel resistance has shifted down to 5170. Trading recommendations suggest selling on rallies below this level, with key support levels at 5076 and 5041. The 5041 level is crucial; a firm hold here could indicate the formation of a short-term bottom.
Silver Technical Analysis: Daily Chart: Silver is also trading weakly near its bottom, constrained by short-term moving averages. Channel resistance lies below 86.5, with potential for a retest of support at the channel's lower boundary near 80. The 80 level is a key stabilization point; a quick breach followed by a rapid recovery would not negate the bottoming process. Given silver's relative weakness compared to gold, a secondary support test in gold could lead to a temporary breach of the 80 level in silver. Trading recommendations advise waiting for gold to stabilize before initiating long positions in silver. The current short-term outlook favors a weak, range-bound consolidation.
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