The stock price of JIAXIN INTL RES (03858), which holds world-class tungsten resources, has already surged ahead of the underlying commodity price. According to data from China Tungsten Online, this round of tungsten price correction found a temporary bottom on May 28th, with 65% black tungsten concentrate quoted at 410,000 yuan per ton. It then began to rebound, reaching 450,000 yuan per ton by June 3rd, a roughly 10% increase from the low in just five trading days. The share price of JIAXIN INTL RES bottomed out ahead of the commodity price, hitting its lowest point for this correction on May 18th at 68.7 HKD per share. After fluctuating for four trading days, it began a gradual ascent. By June 3rd, the share price had risen to a high of 96.4 HKD, marking a gain of over 30% in 11 trading days, forming a classic chart pattern where the stock leads while the commodity consolidates.
The sharp correction in tungsten prices has indeed rattled the market, but countless historical investment cases prove that panic often corresponds to a golden opportunity for value. Looking beyond sentiment to the fundamentals, the core logic of future tightening in tungsten supply remains unchanged. The global tungsten supply gap is set to continue widening. JIAXIN INTL RES controls a globally top-tier, low-cost mineral source. Even if the annual average tungsten price stabilizes at a new central range of 600,000 yuan, the company's released profits are poised for explosive growth. The fact that the stock price bottomed before the tungsten price suggests the current level is likely the bottoming area for JIAXIN INTL RES shares. Once industry inventories are cleared and tungsten prices regain balance, the company's scarcity could propel its share price to challenge previous highs.
Significant Overshoot in Tungsten Price Correction, Central Price Expected to Recover to 600k/Ton
Reflecting on the tungsten price trend since 2025 reveals three distinct phases. The first phase was a unilateral bull market driven by the confluence of tightening supply, inelastic demand, and a strategic value re-rating. Taking 65% black tungsten concentrate as an example, its price climbed continuously from 143,000 yuan per ton at the start of 2025 to 460,000 yuan per ton by early 2026, with a maximum annual increase exceeding 220%, significantly outperforming other minor metals and setting a record for the largest annual gain in over a decade.
The first quarter of 2026 marked the phase of accelerated price surge. Export restrictions choked supply channels, leading holders to hoard and withhold sales. Coupled with raw material inventories at factories dropping to multi-year lows, market liquidity dried up. Consequently, pricing shifted from being driven by "marginal demand" to a liquidity-driven short squeeze, pushing the market to an extreme. On March 12th, black tungsten concentrate prices peaked at 1.05 million yuan per ton, a maximum increase of approximately 634% from the starting point.
Following the peak, the second phase emerged: "bubble deflation and deep correction." Prices exceeding 1 million yuan per ton caused severe cost-profit inversion for downstream consumers like cemented carbide and cutting tools. Downstream companies shifted from "chasing prices to restock" to "reducing production to cut losses and consuming existing stock." The collapse in end-user purchasing power removed the demand foundation for high prices, which is the core internal cause of this correction. Simultaneously, the price inversion between domestic and international markets due to export restrictions forced supply originally destined for global markets back into China. Combined with the replenishing effect of imported ore, apparent supply showed "passive surplus" in the short term. Although domestic mining quotas continue to tighten and environmental costs remain rigid, this supply-demand dynamic distorted by short-term trade structures still suppressed price increases to some extent.
The thin-market effect characteristic of minor metals acted as an "amplifier" for this deep correction. The narrow circulation within the tungsten industry chain results in extremely high price elasticity. However, once the hoarding logic reversed, holders shifted from "withholding sales" to "selling ahead," while buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach due to the "buy high, not low" psychology, quickly freezing market transactions. This liquidity black hole forced sellers to continuously lower prices to find counterparties, triggering a negative spiral and a stampede, causing the tungsten price to correct from the high of 1.05 million yuan per ton all the way down to 420,000 yuan per ton, a correction of 60%.
It is noteworthy that the correction to 420,000 yuan per ton is an extremely critical level. The all-in cost for high-cost mines lies in the range of approximately 380,000 to 420,000 yuan per ton. A drop to 420,000 yuan per ton triggers marginal production capacity to begin passive reductions or even shutdowns, leading to spontaneous contraction on the supply side. This transforms the 420,000 yuan level from an "emotional bottom" into a stage bottom with supply-side rigidity.
After finding strong support at 420,000 yuan per ton, the tungsten price entered the third phase: rebalancing and central price repair post-bubble deflation. At this stage, the price has cleared out the hoarding premium, and pricing power has been returned from a "sell-off among holders" to fundamental supply and demand. On the supply side, China contributes nearly 80% of global tungsten mine production. This concentration inherently means global tungsten pricing power is highly internalized within China's resource management framework. Under the quota-based indicator management system, the ceiling for China's tungsten supply is evident. The first batch of tungsten mining quotas (WO₃ 65%) for 2025 was set at 58,000 tons, a 6.5% year-on-year reduction. The national total control quota for 2026 was further compressed to 115,000 tons, representing a mid-to-high single-digit percentage decrease from the estimated total for 2025, marking the third consecutive year of substantive supply tightening. Enforcement is stricter—quotas are valid only for the current year and do not carry over, quotas for low-grade/small-scale co-associated mines are zeroed out, and environmental/safety violations result in a one-vote否决 system. This means legal primary output cannot linearly increase with rising prices; the supply curve is highly rigid, with almost all price elasticity concentrated on the demand side and in circulation.
On the demand side, a dual-layered structure of "stable base, fast growth" is evident. Traditional cemented carbide (accounting for about 60% of tungsten consumption) serves as the consumable base. Its demand resilience is tied to manufacturing sector vitality; demand does not disappear due to price cycles but is merely deferred, forming the resilient foundation of tungsten consumption. Concurrently, the replacement of high-carbon steel diamond wire with photovoltaic tungsten wire is the most critical incremental driver this cycle—driven by the trend towards thinner wafers, penetration rates have jumped from about 20% in 2024 to over 40% in 2025 (with leading manufacturers adopting over 60%). Photovoltaic tungsten consumption is rapidly scaling from thousand-ton to ten-thousand-ton levels. Combined with tungsten's rigid consumption in irreplaceable fields like military, semiconductor targets, and high-end equipment, as well as its long-term option value in frontier areas like controlled nuclear fusion, the demand side provides structural support for the logic of a rising price center.
Previous analysis indicated that with China's mining quotas continuously tightening and steady demand growth from cemented carbide, photovoltaic tungsten wire, and high-end manufacturing, the global tungsten supply-demand gap is widening. Projections for 2026 and 2027 show gaps of 5.0% and 6.4%, respectively. This is the core factor supporting high tungsten prices.
Based on the industry reality of a persistently widening global tungsten supply gap, a price of 420,000 yuan per ton is clearly oversold, primarily due to the structural flaw of thin liquidity in minor metals. The thin circulation in minor metals naturally leads to two-way amplification in price movements: during uptrends, liquidity drying up and hoarding create a positive feedback loop towards a short-squeeze extreme; during downtrends, destocking and sell-offs among holders lead to a stampede-like overshoot. Prices tend to overshoot in both directions. Therefore, the bottoming around 420,000 yuan per ton is an overshoot within this thin-market structure, not a disproof of the supply gap logic. When prices fall below equilibrium, the industry chain self-corrects towards rebalancing along the path of "cost constraints—inventory consumption—restarting restocking." The recovery is not a linear rebound but a process of central price elevation driven by the exit of marginal capacity, the fading of trade selling pressure, and the replenishment of downstream rigid demand, all under an unchanged supply ceiling. Mainstream market expectations also point towards the central operating price for black tungsten concentrate in 2026 potentially returning to around 600,000 yuan per ton.
In the short term, several "additional tightening" stimuli on the supply side are accelerating the arrival of this recovery window. First, mine safety incidents in May are expected to further strengthen safety enforcement and compliance reviews, suppressing the pace of restarting and expanding marginal capacity and increasing compliance costs. Second, seasonal disruptions from high temperatures, rain, and flood seasons from June to August naturally compress the operational stability of open-pit mining and processing. Both factors will weaken the recovery elasticity of circulating supply, thereby supporting the re-establishment of a higher tungsten price center.
Price Stability, Volume Growth, and Cost Reduction Converge to Accelerate Profit Release
The investment logic for cyclical stocks typically unfolds in two stages. The first stage is dominated by expectations of a primary uptrend in product prices, where stock prices closely follow the commodity trend in a smooth upward movement until the market forms a consensus on a price peak, concluding the valuation re-rating phase. The core of the second stage lies in whether commodity prices can maintain a high-level consolidation. If the price center stabilizes, the investment logic shifts from "price increase" to "volume growth." Companies capable of "stable prices and rising volumes" may not only challenge previous stock price highs after a correction but potentially break through the cycle to set new highs. Conversely, if commodity prices fail to stabilize and enter a downtrend, it signals the end of that cyclical investment opportunity.
With the tungsten price center likely recovering to 600,000 yuan per ton and maintaining high-level consolidation, JIAXIN INTL RES is poised to be the company most likely to challenge its previous stock price high in this complete tungsten investment cycle. As a tungsten mining company based in Kazakhstan, JIAXIN INTL RES focuses on developing the Bakhuta Tungsten Mine project. As of December 31, 2025, the Bakhuta mine holds 105.6 million tons of ore (grade 0.212% WO₃), with a WO₃ resource of 223.8 thousand tons. It ranks as the world's fourth-largest tungsten mine by WO₃ resource (including open-pit and underground) and is the world's largest open-pit tungsten mine, with the world's largest designed tungsten production capacity for a single mine.
JIAXIN INTL RES has disclosed a clear production plan for Bakhuta. Phase I production targets processing 3.3 to 3.8 million tons of ore annually, commenced in 2025, with an annual output capacity of over 5,000 tons of tungsten concentrate. In 2025, the company's full-year tungsten concentrate production reached 5,008 tons (65% WO₃ grade), exceeding market expectations. Notably, the 2025 production of 5,008 tons is not a full-year figure, as Phase I only entered commercial production in April 2025 and took several months to ramp up to full capacity. 2026 represents the first full year of Phase I operation at full capacity, meaning actual output will be significantly higher than 2025. A securities firm projected JIAXIN INTL RES's 2026 tungsten concentrate production to reach 9,612 tons. However, this is not the limit. The company's Phase II production line is planned to commence in the first quarter of 2027, boosting annual ore processing capacity to 4.95 million tons and accelerating capacity release. The same firm stated that with Phase II, JIAXIN INTL RES's 2027 production is expected to reach 15.1 thousand tons, a further increase of nearly 60% from 2026.
Based on a reverse calculation from JIAXIN INTL RES's 2025 actual performance, the estimated pre-tax all-in cost for its tungsten concentrate in 2025 was approximately 139,000 HKD per ton (about 127,000 RMB). This pre-tax all-in cost includes items like marketing expenses and some allocated financial costs, essentially meaning the company turns a profit once the selling price exceeds this cost. Analysis of the 2025 performance provided a clear unit cost profile for the Bakhuta mine: based on annual production/sales of 5,008/4,879 tons of 65% white tungsten concentrate, the estimated pre-tax all-in cost per ton was about 139,000 HKD (~127,000 RMB). This figure already includes all operational expenses like mining and processing costs, depreciation and amortization, management and sales expenses, and transportation/customs costs for the Khorgos direction (excluding financial expenses). This value essentially represents the "operational break-even point per ton," highlighting JIAXIN INTL RES's strong market competitiveness on costs. Furthermore, this figure has room to decline further. As Phase I enters its first full operational year in 2026, fixed costs will be spread over larger volumes, and with recovery rate optimization, the all-in cost per ton could potentially drop to the 90,000–110,000 RMB range. By 2027, after Phase II's pre-concentration waste rejection system is operational, the company's prospectus indicates operational cash costs could be compressed to around 49,000 RMB per ton, with the steady-state all-in cost including depreciation potentially falling as low as 70,000 RMB per ton.
Using the aforementioned projected figures as a basis, estimated pre-tax profits for JIAXIN INTL RES in 2026 and 2027 could reach 4.902 billion and 8.0 billion RMB, respectively. This represents a massive surge from the 336 million RMB pre-tax profit in 2025, demonstrating sustained explosive growth. Clearly, if the annual average tungsten price stabilizes at 600,000 RMB per ton in 2026 and 2027, JIAXIN INTL RES's profits could enter an accelerated release period driven by the dual impact of "volume growth + cost reduction," leveraging increased sales volumes and the ongoing cost advantages of its open-pit mine.
JIAXIN INTL RES's share price previously saw a significant correction due to the tungsten price stampede and profit-taking by cornerstone investors after the lock-up period expired. As of the June 4th close, its market capitalization was less than 40 billion RMB, corresponding to a 2026 P/E ratio of only around 8x. Applying a 2027 P/E multiple of 10x suggests the share price of JIAXIN INTL RES could potentially double, making a challenge of previous highs a natural progression.
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