GTHT released a research report stating that since 2025, the domestic medical device sector has been steadily recovering, while overseas markets have shown sustained growth drivers. The focus is on the domestic pricing catalysts and the surge of overseas orders for surgical robots, as well as the continued steady growth of serious medical care. A "Buy" rating is maintained. Recommended targets include: 1) those accelerating the global commercialization of surgical robots; 2) those expected to maintain steady performance growth; and 3) those likely to reach an inflection point after facing temporary pressure. The main views of GTHT are as follows:
The domestic market is gradually reaching an inflection point in 2025, while the scale of overseas expansion continues to grow. From 2025 Q1 to 2026 Q1, the year-over-year growth rates of total medical equipment revenue were -4%, -5%, 12%, 13%, and 7%, respectively. The gradual implementation of medical equipment renewal policies has led to a continuous recovery in terminal tenders, with corporate performance expected to reach an inflection point in the second half of the year. For medical consumables, the year-over-year growth rates from 2025 Q1 to 2026 Q1 were 5%, 8%, 7%, 10%, and 15%, respectively, showing fluctuations due to domestic demand and centralized procurement but gradually recovering. For in-vitro diagnostics (IVD), the year-over-year growth rates for the same period were -15%, -17%, -13%, -3%, and -6%, respectively, with the IVD industry facing pressure on both volume and price. The trend of medical device companies expanding overseas remains positive in the long term, with the proportion of overseas revenue continuing to increase. Leading companies have accelerated their overseas market development and localization efforts, entering a new stage of product upgrades and customer breakthroughs. Despite tariff-related disturbances, overseas business growth has outpaced domestic growth, becoming a significant driver of performance.
Looking ahead to 2026, the bank expects domestic demand to remain under pressure temporarily due to slowing medical insurance expenditure and a high base for equipment tenders. However, as corporate inventory reduction nears completion, medical equipment companies' revenue is expected to show a weak recovery from a low base. The marginal impact of centralized procurement is diminishing, and there remains significant room for domestic substitution in areas such as electrophysiology, neurointervention, digestive endoscopy, chemiluminescence, and high-end imaging equipment. With policy support, the process of import substitution is expected to accelerate. The IVD industry is likely to stabilize in terms of volume and price, gradually recovering. While overseas sales may be affected in the short term by exchange rates and regional conflicts, expansion into overseas markets remains in its early stages for high-end equipment like robots, IVD, orthopedics, cardiovascular high-value consumables, and home medical devices. With ongoing product registration, channel expansion, localization, product upgrades, and breakthroughs with high-end clients, overseas markets are expected to maintain rapid growth.
Focus on the expansion of medical technology overseas, with the global commercialization of domestic surgical robots accelerating. In 2025, Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci surgical robots had a cumulative installation of 11,106 units, with the company's revenue exceeding $10 billion and net profit surpassing $3 billion. Revenue from non-U.S. regions accounted for over 30% of the total, with annual installations in non-U.S. regions exceeding 40% and surgical volume growth in these regions at approximately 23%, fully demonstrating the potential of global non-U.S. markets. Since 2025, domestic surgical robot manufacturers have experienced rapid growth in overseas orders and revenue. For instance, MicroPort Robot's overseas sales revenue reached 400 million yuan (a year-over-year increase of 287%), while Jingfeng Medical's overseas sales revenue reached 270 million yuan, accounting for nearly 60% of its total revenue. The global commercialization process for domestic surgical robots is accelerating. The bank believes that surgical robots offer significant clinical benefits, and their global penetration rate is expected to continue rising. Domestic manufacturers' products have clinical data comparable to da Vinci, and the advantages of China's manufacturing sector provide higher cost-effectiveness, enabling them to capture global market share with differentiated strengths.
Risks include intensified medical insurance cost control, policy implementation falling short of expectations, valuation fluctuations, and market volatility.
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