Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now

Barron's2021-04-01

Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective. The S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the ...

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Comments

JYong
2021-04-01
JYong
Anyone got any stocks to recommend?
Daveb
2021-04-01
Daveb
I love it how these people are sooo clever in hindsight but totally lacking in foresight. However they are so called experts.???
- Daveb:
  Thank you. I received your message ??
- Daveb:
  IMU doing very well up 50% and looking stable.
- Daveb:
  I am very tempted to swap my uwmc for IPOE or even AMC as the 4000 plus shares have done nothing at all and i doubt the upside.?
- doubleZReplyDaveb:
  And for UWMC, not a problem. You can still hold because their biggest investor is a good hedge fund.
- doubleZReplyDaveb:
  Oh no no the entire community is not down. You just have to wait the next day because Tiger Audits Posts before Officially allowing to Publish.
Woogy
2021-04-01
Woogy
Which stock to buy?? Tiger Brokers!!!!
The0
2021-04-01
The0
??
Derrickola
2021-04-01
Derrickola
Not yet. HODL
- SGoh:
  Nice
- huatking:
  sweet
- Nsim:
  Nice
Wallstrtbets
2021-04-01
Wallstrtbets
Bravo.

Leave a comment

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While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1610680873436","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. 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Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-01 15:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","article_id":"1127042118","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1610680873436","name":"Barron's"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"股市第一季度表现良好。现在不太可能取得重大收益","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":357513434,"gmtCreate":1617284797528,"gmtModify":1704698301050,"author":{"id":"3579773044107425","authorId":"3579773044107425","name":"JYong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6a29aec031bf2795641c10f1fc053f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Anyone got any stocks to recommend?","listText":"Anyone got any stocks to recommend?","text":"Anyone got any stocks to recommend?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357513434","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357596711,"gmtCreate":1617284112233,"gmtModify":1704698277549,"author":{"id":"3575141057639271","authorId":"3575141057639271","name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"I love it how these people are sooo clever in hindsight but totally lacking in foresight. However they are so called experts.???","listText":"I love it how these people are sooo clever in hindsight but totally lacking in foresight. However they are so called experts.???","text":"I love it how these people are sooo clever in hindsight but totally lacking in foresight. However they are so called experts.???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357596711","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4007366,"gmtCreate":1618118785317,"gmtModify":1680783628303,"authorId":3575141057639271,"author":{"id":3575141057639271,"authorId":3575141057639271,"name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357596711,"type":1,"supId":3957334,"prevId":0,"content":"Thank you. I received your message ??","text":"Thank you. I received your message ??","html":"Thank you. I received your message ??"},{"id":4007387,"gmtCreate":1618119049794,"gmtModify":1680783627362,"authorId":3575141057639271,"author":{"id":3575141057639271,"authorId":3575141057639271,"name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357596711,"type":1,"supId":3957334,"prevId":0,"content":"IMU doing very well up 50% and looking stable. ","text":"IMU doing very well up 50% and looking stable. ","html":"IMU doing very well up 50% and looking stable. "},{"id":4007375,"gmtCreate":1618118920196,"gmtModify":1680783625572,"authorId":3575141057639271,"author":{"id":3575141057639271,"authorId":3575141057639271,"name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357596711,"type":1,"supId":3957334,"prevId":0,"content":"I am very tempted to swap my uwmc for IPOE or even AMC as the 4000 plus shares have done nothing at all and i doubt the upside.?","text":"I am very tempted to swap my uwmc for IPOE or even AMC as the 4000 plus shares have done nothing at all and i doubt the upside.?","html":"I am very tempted to swap my uwmc for IPOE or even AMC as the 4000 plus shares have done nothing at all and i doubt the upside.?"},{"id":4004527,"gmtCreate":1618086025836,"gmtModify":1680783584564,"authorId":3556582009315298,"author":{"id":3556582009315298,"authorId":3556582009315298,"name":"doubleZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d125f550abadf09dc8f4dace09e00c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3575141057639271,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3575141057639271,"authorId":3575141057639271,"name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":357596711,"type":1,"supId":3957334,"prevId":4004523,"content":"And for UWMC, not a problem. You can still hold because their biggest investor is a good hedge fund. ","text":"And for UWMC, not a problem. You can still hold because their biggest investor is a good hedge fund. ","html":"And for UWMC, not a problem. You can still hold because their biggest investor is a good hedge fund. "},{"id":4004526,"gmtCreate":1618085911863,"gmtModify":1680783583633,"authorId":3556582009315298,"author":{"id":3556582009315298,"authorId":3556582009315298,"name":"doubleZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d125f550abadf09dc8f4dace09e00c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3575141057639271,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3575141057639271,"authorId":3575141057639271,"name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":357596711,"type":1,"supId":3957334,"prevId":4004523,"content":"Oh no no the entire community is not down. You just have to wait the next day because Tiger Audits Posts before Officially allowing to Publish. ","text":"Oh no no the entire community is not down. You just have to wait the next day because Tiger Audits Posts before Officially allowing to Publish. ","html":"Oh no no the entire community is not down. You just have to wait the next day because Tiger Audits Posts before Officially allowing to Publish. "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357246024,"gmtCreate":1617281735068,"gmtModify":1704698233737,"author":{"id":"3577239452657382","authorId":"3577239452657382","name":"Woogy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c56113ccd7681dab9948c35b0aed144","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Which stock to buy?? Tiger Brokers!!!!","listText":"Which stock to buy?? Tiger Brokers!!!!","text":"Which stock to buy?? Tiger Brokers!!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357246024","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357265587,"gmtCreate":1617279690449,"gmtModify":1704698198227,"author":{"id":"3574848185025531","authorId":"3574848185025531","name":"The0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1f49570794979e009a5efdeb6f4789","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357265587","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357284206,"gmtCreate":1617278729105,"gmtModify":1704698185707,"author":{"id":"3575765870316438","authorId":"3575765870316438","name":"Derrickola","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1a91ff1e2c7029f0ea5d952a46bebb","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Not yet. HODL","listText":"Not yet. HODL","text":"Not yet. HODL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357284206","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3948868,"gmtCreate":1617408328603,"gmtModify":1680782722554,"authorId":3565395093400157,"author":{"id":3565395093400157,"authorId":3565395093400157,"name":"SGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e38bfdd3bb9c6884571f8ef468bc10d4","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357284206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Nice</u>","text":"<u>Nice</u>","html":"<u>Nice</u>"},{"id":3945232,"gmtCreate":1617335618443,"gmtModify":1680782667186,"authorId":3575698023594890,"author":{"id":3575698023594890,"authorId":3575698023594890,"name":"huatking","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a67911ff5e6d0a22862ddbd73954501","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357284206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"sweet","text":"sweet","html":"sweet"},{"id":3943308,"gmtCreate":1617321056350,"gmtModify":1680782646239,"authorId":3574412358832380,"author":{"id":3574412358832380,"authorId":3574412358832380,"name":"Nsim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829143ac1cbbb83f56252c550074d418","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357284206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":" Nice","text":" Nice","html":" Nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357212836,"gmtCreate":1617277006825,"gmtModify":1704698168983,"author":{"id":"3566244878628904","authorId":"3566244878628904","name":"Wallstrtbets","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c38bbee1121ea92508ad9508fa15c5e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Bravo.","listText":"Bravo.","text":"Bravo.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357212836","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":54,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1127042118"}