On June 9th: In the previous trading session on Monday (June 8th), international gold prices initially declined due to selling pressure stemming from heightened rate hike expectations following last Friday's non-farm payrolls report. Subsequently, prices were driven by buying interest and a weakening in crude oil and the US dollar, which reduced the rate hike outlook after US President Trump's call led to an agreement for Iran and Israel to cease mutual attacks. This combination helped gold prices bottom out and recover to close flat.
For the week, there is some demand for a short-term rebound in gold prices. However, as they remain below the 200-day moving average, with the bearish death cross formed by the 60-day and 100-day moving averages showing no signs of reversal, and with the fundamental backdrop not yet turning favorable, the overall outlook remains one of weak adjustment. A rebound to touch moving average resistance levels could still present opportunities for a pullback.
In specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,328.81 per ounce, initially strengthening to record an intraday high of $4,353.20 before encountering resistance and falling back, fluctuating lower to record an intraday low of $4,268.83 around midday. During the European session, prices rebounded and then entered a sideways consolidation, eventually closing at $4,329.52. The daily trading range was $84.37, with a gain of $0.71.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, June 9th: International gold opened with a slightly weaker bias. The US Dollar Index remains within its recent rebound trend, showing short-term strength, which is applying pressure on gold prices. However, crude oil prices are trading below their short-term moving averages, showing weakness, which is likely to limit the downside for gold. Therefore, overall, gold prices are expected to be dominated by volatile, range-bound movements in the short term.
During the day, attention can be paid to data releases including the US April Trade Balance (in billions of dollars), US May Existing Home Sales (annualized, in millions), and the US April Wholesale Inventories month-over-month change. Market expectations generally lean towards being bearish for gold. Consequently, focus will be on selling pressure during the US session and potential subsequent rebound opportunities.
From a fundamental perspective, since hitting a record high in late January this year, gold has experienced a significant correction. This was driven by profit-taking at historical highs, a shift in market expectations towards a potential restart of the rate hike cycle and a reversal of rate cut bets after Trump nominated hawk Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair, leading to a stronger dollar and a sell-off. Subsequently, rising oil prices and inflation fueled by US-Iran tensions further bolstered rate hike expectations. Entering June, the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data further intensified Fed rate hike expectations, accelerating gold's decline and nearly erasing all its year-to-date gains.
In the short term, the surge in energy prices triggered by the US-Israel-Iran conflict has failed to activate gold's traditional safe-haven function. Instead, by boosting inflation expectations, it continues to weigh on gold prices. Until the fundamental backdrop reverses, the trend is expected to remain one of adjustment and decline.
However, it is worth noting that the enthusiasm for gold purchases among global central banks has not diminished, and gold's share in global official reserve assets continues to rise. Factors such as the restructuring of the international reserve system and persistent safe-haven demand will continue to provide support for gold prices. Additionally, both the US and Iran still desire to reach an agreement, and crude oil prices have not strengthened further, suggesting that Fed rate hike expectations may weaken in the subsequent period. Therefore, this deep correction could also be viewed as another starting point for a renewed bull market in the future.
Technically, on the monthly chart, gold prices are currently trading below the 5- and 10-month moving averages, increasing bearish pressure. The accompanying indicator, KDJ, maintains a bearish signal, and the MACD is poised to form a bearish death cross, suggesting the potential for a decline towards the support of the middle Bollinger Band around $3,800, or even the support of the 30-month moving average near $3,300.
If prices bottom out this month and close above $4,450, the bearish outlook would weaken, potentially leading to sideways consolidation or another upward move. Otherwise, the wait for a downward adjustment continues.
On the weekly chart, gold prices have once again broken below the support of the previous ascending trend channel, increasing bearish momentum. In the short term, there is an expectation for a retest of the support at the 60-week moving average and the previous low around the $4,100 level. The former trendline support has now turned into resistance. The primary strategy below this level is to look for selling opportunities on rallies. A rebound and sustained move above this level would shift the bias towards a bullish rebound.
On the daily chart, yesterday's bottoming and recovery close suggests some inclination for a rebound. However, prices remain below the 200-day and numerous other moving averages, indicating significant overhead pressure and likely limited rebound strength. The death cross formed by the 60-day and 100-day moving averages also signals the risk of a potential break below the $4,100 level. Therefore, the overall expectation remains for a weak, downward adjustment.
For specific intraday trading guidance, refer to real-time account information.
Preliminary intraday trading level ideas are provided below for reference. Specific entry and exit points are subject to real-time account notifications:
Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4,300 or $4,250; Resistance levels to watch are around $4,380 or $4,425.
Silver: Support levels to watch are around $66.40 or $65.50; Resistance levels to watch are around $69.70 or $71.35.
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